United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2024

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2020
U.S. Senate, New Mexico
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: Candidates seeking pre-primary designation February 6, 2024; All other candidates March 12, 2024
Primary: June 4, 2024
General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in New Mexico
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
DDHQ and The Hill: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
U.S. Senate, New Mexico
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd
New Mexico elections, 2024
U.S. Congress elections, 2024
U.S. Senate elections, 2024
U.S. House elections, 2024

Incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich defeated Nella Domenici (R) in the United States Senate election for New Mexico's U.S. Senate seat.[1]

Heinrich was first elected in 2012. He won re-election in 2018 by 23 percentage points. Domenici is the daughter of late U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici (R), who was in office from 1973 to 2009. He was the last Republican to be elected to the U.S. Senate from New Mexico. President Joe Biden (D) won the state by 10 percentage points in 2020. Before the election, the state had been a Democratic trifecta since 2019.

Politico wrote that Domenici’s run in a historically Democratic state raised "GOP hopes that they can expand their Senate map" and that it would be "especially strategic if they can force Democrats to spend money there."[2] Ballotpedia did not identify any satellite spending in this race from Democratic groups in this race.

Both Heinrich and Domenici released multiple ads attacking the other. Heinrich criticized Domenici as an outsider running for the seat based on her father’s name recognition and her wealth. Domenici accused Heinrich of failing New Mexico by leaving the southern border open and allowing illegal drugs into the country.

Before entering politics, Heinrich worked as a mechanical engineer at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico. He was elected to the Albuquerque City Council in 2003. He represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District from 2009 to 2013. Heinrich’s campaign focused on clean energy, preserving legal access to abortion and contraception, and the cost of living. Heinrich said he ran because "it’s the place that I can be most helpful to the state of New Mexico, and I find enormous meaning in public service." Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Heinrich raised $12.8 million and spent $11.9 million.

This was Domenici’s first run for public office. She earned a bachelor's degree from Georgetown University, a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center, and a graduate degree from the Harvard Business School. Her career experience included serving as CFO for Bridgewater Associates and in various positions with Citadel and Credit Suisse First Boston. Domenici’s campaign focused on the economy, energy independence, and securing the southern border. Domenici said she was running because she was "uniquely prepared and qualified to fight for a significantly improved New Mexican economy." Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Domenici raised $5.9 million and spent $5.7 million.

Before the election, four major election forecasters each rated the general election Solid/Safe Democratic.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. Senate in the 119th Congress. Thirty-four of 100 seats were up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats held 19, Republicans held 11, and independents held four.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 50-49 majority.[3] As a result of the election, Republicans gained a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate.Cite error: Closing </ref> missing for <ref> tag To read more about the 2024 U.S. Senate elections, click here.


For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Incumbent Martin Heinrich defeated Nella Domenici in the general election for U.S. Senate New Mexico on November 5, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Martin Heinrich
Martin Heinrich (D)
 
55.1
 
497,333
Image of Nella Domenici
Nella Domenici (R)
 
44.9
 
405,978

Total votes: 903,311
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Incumbent Martin Heinrich advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 4, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Martin Heinrich
Martin Heinrich
 
100.0
 
122,961

Total votes: 122,961
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Nella Domenici advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 4, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Nella Domenici
Nella Domenici
 
100.0
 
79,809

Total votes: 79,809
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Voting information

See also: Voting in New Mexico

Election information in New Mexico: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
  • By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 8, 2024
  • Online: Oct. 8, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: Oct. 22, 2024
  • By mail: Received by Oct. 22, 2024
  • Online: Oct. 22, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
  • By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 8, 2024 to Nov. 2, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. (MST)


Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Martin Heinrich

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

U.S. Senate, New Mexico (Assumed office: 2013)

U.S. House, New Mexico's 1st Congressional District (2009-2013)

Albuquerque City Council (2004-2008)

Biography:  Heinrich received a B.A. from the University of Missouri and pursued graduate coursework at the University of New Mexico. Before entering politics, Heinrich worked as a mechanical engineer at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Heinrich emphasized his experience with and commitment to clean energy. He said by “harnessing our state’s abundant natural resources and embracing clean energy technologies, we can create jobs, drive innovation, and combat climate change.”


Heinrich stated that “protecting the reproductive rights and freedoms of all New Mexicans” was one of his top priorities. He said that he was committed to “ensuring that everyone has access to the full spectrum of reproductive health care, including the right to access an abortion.”



The cost of living was another priority in Heinrich’s campaign. He said he was “committed to easing the financial strain on New Mexican families and ensuring fairness in the marketplace.”


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate New Mexico in 2024.

Image of Nella Domenici

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Domenici received a bachelor's degree from Georgetown University, a J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center, and a graduate degree from the Harvard Business School. Her career experience includes working in the finance industry.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Domenici emphasized her focus on the economy, saying she was “uniquely prepared and qualified to fight for a significantly improved New Mexican economy.” She mentioned her experience in many fields as the reason she could “deeply understand taxation, inflation, [and] setting and managing huge budgets.”



Domenici called her approach to abortion and birth control as “compassionate.” She continued that she believed “abortion should be safe, legal, and most importantly rare.” She also stated she opposed a national abortion ban.



Domenici focused on securing the southern border in her campaigning, stating that “[w]hile Arizona and Texas have reinforced their borders, New Mexico’s borders have weak barriers and miles with no barriers at all.” She called for immediately securing the border.



Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. Senate New Mexico in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign ads

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Martin Heinrich Democratic Party

August 25, 2024
August 2, 2024
July 17, 2024

Nella Domenici Republican Party

August 14, 2024
August 14, 2024
August 5, 2024


Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[4] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[5] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, 2024
Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2024October 29, 2024October 22, 2024October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Decision Desk HQ and The HillLikely DemocraticSafe DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election spending

Campaign finance


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Martin Heinrich Democratic Party $13,194,915 $13,530,338 $319,551 As of December 31, 2024
Nella Domenici Republican Party $7,013,192 $6,941,535 $71,658 As of December 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


As of Oct. 28, 2024, the two major party candidates had the 12th smallest difference in terms of total money raised between major party Senate candidates and the 14th smallest difference in terms of total spending. Click here to learn more.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[10][11][12]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate By election


Election analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about demographics, past elections, and partisan control of the state.

  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the state.
  • Statewide elections - Information about recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in the state.
  • State partisanship - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.


See also: Presidential voting trends in New Mexico and The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Cook PVI by congressional district

Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index for New Mexico, 2024
District Incumbent Party PVI
New Mexico's 1st Melanie Ann Stansbury Electiondot.png Democratic D+5
New Mexico's 2nd Gabriel Vasquez Electiondot.png Democratic D+1
New Mexico's 3rd Teresa Leger Fernandez Electiondot.png Democratic D+4


2020 presidential results by 2024 congressional district lines

2020 presidential results in congressional districts based on 2024 district lines, New Mexico[13]
District Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
New Mexico's 1st 55.9% 41.5%
New Mexico's 2nd 51.9% 46.1%
New Mexico's 3rd 54.4% 43.6%


2012-2020

How a state's counties vote in a presidential election and the size of those counties can provide additional insights into election outcomes at other levels of government including statewide and congressional races. Below, four categories are used to describe each county's voting pattern over the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections: Solid, Trending, Battleground, and New. Click [show] on the table below for examples:


Following the 2020 presidential election, 69.6% of New Mexicans lived in one of the state's 14 Solid Democratic counties, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 2012 to 2020, and 26.% lived in one of 16 Solid Republican counties. Overall, New Mexico was Solid Democratic, having voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012, Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) in 2020. Use the table below to view the total number of each type of county in New Mexico following the 2020 election as well as the overall percentage of the state population located in each county type.

Historical voting trends

New Mexico presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 16 Democratic wins
  • 12 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party N/A N/A N/A D D R R R D D D D D R R D D R R R R R R D D D R D D D D

This section details the results of the five most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections held in the state.

U.S. Senate elections

See also: List of United States Senators from New Mexico

The table below details the vote in the five most recent U.S. Senate races in New Mexico.

U.S. Senate election results in New Mexico
Race Winner Runner up
2020 51.7%Democratic Party 45.6%Republican Party
2018 54.1%Democratic Party 30.5%Republican Party
2014 55.6%Democratic Party 44.4%Republican Party
2012 51.0%Democratic Party 45.3%Republican Party
2008 61.3%Democratic Party 38.7%Republican Party
Average 54.7 40.9

Gubernatorial elections

See also: Governor of New Mexico

The table below details the vote in the five most recent gubernatorial elections in New Mexico.

Gubernatorial election results in New Mexico
Race Winner Runner up
2022 52.0%Democratic Party 45.6%Republican Party
2018 57.2%Democratic Party 42.8%Republican Party
2014 52.4%Democratic Party 47.4%Republican Party
2010 53.3%Republican Party 46.6%Democratic Party
2006 68.8%Democratic Party 31.2%Republican Party
Average 57.4 41.4
See also: Party control of New Mexico state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of New Mexico's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from New Mexico
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 2 3 5
Republican 0 0 0
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 3 5

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in New Mexico's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in New Mexico, May 2024
Office Officeholder
Governor Democratic Party Michelle Lujan Grisham
Lieutenant Governor Democratic Party Howie Morales
Secretary of State Democratic Party Maggie Toulouse Oliver
Attorney General Democratic Party Raul Torrez

State legislature

New Mexico State Senate

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 27
     Republican Party 15
     Independent 0
     Other 0
     Vacancies 0
Total 42

New Mexico House of Representatives

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 45
     Republican Party 25
     Independent 0
     Other 0
     Vacancies 0
Total 70

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

New Mexico Party Control: 1992-2024
Seventeen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D D D D D

The table below details demographic data in New Mexico and compares it to the broader United States as of 2022.

Demographic Data for New Mexico
New Mexico United States
Population 2,117,522 331,449,281
Land area (sq mi) 121,312 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 59.2% 65.9%
Black/African American 2.1% 12.5%
Asian 1.6% 5.8%
Native American 9.4% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.2%
Other (single race) 11.1% 6%
Multiple 16.5% 8.8%
Hispanic/Latino 49.8% 18.7%
Education
High school graduation rate 87.1% 89.1%
College graduation rate 29.1% 34.3%
Income
Median household income $58,722 $75,149
Persons below poverty level 13.7% 8.8%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2017-2022).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates in New Mexico in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New Mexico, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. Senate candidates, 2024
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New Mexico U.S. Senate Democratic 2,505 2% of votes cast for all of the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary N/A N/A Candidates seeking pre-primary designation 2/6/2024 All other candidates 3/12/2024 Source
New Mexico U.S. Senate Libertarian 294 2% of votes cast for all of the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary N/A N/A Candidates seeking pre-primary designation 2/6/2024 All other candidates 3/12/2024 Source
New Mexico U.S. Senate Republican 2,351 2% of votes cast for all of the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary N/A N/A Candidates seeking pre-primary designation 2/6/2024 All other candidates 3/12/2024 Source
New Mexico U.S. Senate Unaffiliated 14,147 2% of all votes cast for governor in the last election N/A N/A 6/27/2024 Source

Election history

The section below details election results for this state's U.S. Senate elections dating back to 2014.

2020

General election

General election for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti and Bob Walsh in the general election for U.S. Senate New Mexico on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján (D)
 
51.7
 
474,483
Image of Mark Ronchetti
Mark Ronchetti (R) Candidate Connection
 
45.6
 
418,483
Image of Bob Walsh
Bob Walsh (L)
 
2.6
 
24,271

Total votes: 917,237
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Ben Ray Luján advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján
 
100.0
 
225,082

Total votes: 225,082
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Mark Ronchetti defeated Elisa Martinez and Gavin Clarkson in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mark Ronchetti
Mark Ronchetti Candidate Connection
 
56.5
 
89,216
Image of Elisa Martinez
Elisa Martinez
 
26.1
 
41,240
Image of Gavin Clarkson
Gavin Clarkson
 
17.4
 
27,471

Total votes: 157,927
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Bob Walsh advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bob Walsh
Bob Walsh
 
100.0
 
1,454

Total votes: 1,454
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate New Mexico

Incumbent Martin Heinrich defeated Mick Rich and Gary Johnson in the general election for U.S. Senate New Mexico on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Martin Heinrich
Martin Heinrich (D)
 
54.1
 
376,998
Image of Mick Rich
Mick Rich (R)
 
30.5
 
212,813
Image of Gary Johnson
Gary Johnson (L)
 
15.4
 
107,201

Total votes: 697,012
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2014

On November 4, 2014, incumbent Tom Udall (D) won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Allen Weh (R) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, New Mexico General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTom Udall Incumbent 55.6% 286,409
     Republican Allen Weh 44.4% 229,097
Total Votes 515,506
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State




2024 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This was a battleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections included:

See also

New Mexico 2024 primaries 2024 U.S. Congress elections
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New Mexico congressional delegation
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Ballot access

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Democratic Party (5)