Tuesday May 6, 2025
If you watch the Unity election reaction you can see some level of panic and hysteria and how much they are focused on attacking ABC and if not ignoring, actually pushing ARISE. But underneath the sturm and drang, we hear lots of whispers about Unity ballot splitters which means instead of voting the Unity slate, they will be picking and choosing a select list of people to vote for, with some (or more than some) favoring Amy Arundell over the unpopular Mulgrew. Which leads to some interesting conjectures:
Can people win from both ABC and Unity? Or is it even possible for ARISE to sneak in with a 3 way race? I doubt that ARISE has any chance to win while ABC has a path if the retiree and para vote and the breakaway Unity vote come in strong, but I have to say unity is still the favorite - and to those who continue to harange and blame me for two slates I say that if we ran one slate that was dominated and controlled by the 3 members of the ARISE coalition with the ABCs given a slim sliver, we would not have 120 paras running, doubtful backing by Marianne and no Unity split offs voting for such a slate. One slate configured and controlled by ARISE would have had as little chance of winning, so get over it. ABC being freed from the ARISE controls has flourished and brought new blood into the battle.
There are whispers and secret pats on the back coming from a silent minority or maybe majority of Unity people at all levels in messages to ABC candidates they've known and worked with. Some ABCs have been surprised at the friendliness toward them, given the vicious attacks coming from Unity slugs, some anonymous.
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Clearly, there is worry about their jobs and the prospect of going back to the classroom if Unity loses. So it could be a game of mirrors where they figure they have everything to gain in making nice just in case while maintaining the loyalty oath.
Gene goes on where he points out he's not voting for Amy to send Mulgrew a message but to actually make Amy president.
But, yes, look for a lot more ballot splitters in this election than in the past, though I tell people that if they don't vote for one slate, these ballot splitter votes are the last to be counted, and often discounted in reported totals because they generally have no real impact on the election as the different totals for candidates come to a few hundred at most.
But if this is a close race, these split ballot votes may determine some winners. Imagine people in Unity decide to vote for Amy and also their friends in Unity they respect. She could win and be saddled with a Unity dominated adcom and executive board. Real change won't come if that happens - so vote ABC slate.
Some Unity were reassured when Amy has said that there are staffers who are capable and would be needed to help keep the wheels on the union if there was an overturn of the leadership.
Let's face it. Amy is the wildcard. Insiders know she is smart and competent and capable of running the UFT, probably the most competent opponent Unity has had (I'd exempt James Eterno and possibly Julie Cavanagh).
The big question is how deep into the schools do people know Amy? I met a guidance counselor in a k-8 school today when I was putting leaflets in the mail boxes (something I swore I would not do but Amy asked me to do this school and a few others) and she knew little about the election (other than two of her colleagues whose photos were over the time clock running with Unity - probably a violation of DOE election rules) but did know about Amy. So the difference between this and other elections is that knowledge about the ABC presidential candidate extends deeper into the schools, especially in Queens, than any other candidate in the past.
Let's face it -- no matter who is on the slate, people vote based on the president. That was certainly a strategy behind ABC - for better or worse, Amy Arundell is a magnet for matter and some anti-matter - she gives ABC the best chance to win, while also probably costing ABC some votes.
6 comments:
If ABC wins, will ABC clear out all the paid Mulgew/Unity lapdog paid staffers? There are quite a few of those folks who have publicly backed all of Mulgrew's crappy agendas. They need to be shoved out the door and I hope that happens if ABC wins. Sure, there many good Unity folks, but the ones who work in the offices who have stabbed us in the back need to be replaced asap in the event of an ABC win.
I agree that certain people need to be pushed out the door but working with some people who were Unity and seeing them in a new light gives me pause at throwing out the baby with the bathwater. And I do believe in due process even if they didn't. There are a lot of clerical staff but also a lot of nepotism. I would have to take the judgement of Amy into account since she knows the territory. But if you have names share them.
You guys are living in an alternative reality. You are running with Paul Egan.
And you are running with mulgrew? I’ll take our chances.
You do know that Amy Arundell backed every giveback and weak contract when she was in Mulgrew’s good graces? Their falling out was regarding her geopolitical opinions and not some epiphany she had regarding the way Unity runs the UFT like it’s some mob family organization. Amy shut down every dissenting opinion during her time as one of Unity’s special people. Do you not see that much of the ABC officers are opportunists who conveniently had their “come to Jesus” moments in an election year when Amy steps in with her name recognition.
Well you are wrong. Even in her worst moments I did know for years that she and Mulgrew were not on good terms but she was to competent to ditch. When he moved her out of 52 I think around 2016 I smelled a rat. Ed Notes pushed back against the geopol argument. https://ednotesonline.blogspot.com/2023/10/unity-caucus-and-amy-gate-reasons-for.html. Paul has been out for 5 years and a year ago he came in big for the TRS Campaign for us. As for the others - Steve, Leah? Both could have risen in Unity. Who else? Chad? He quit Unity when they fired Bennett. There are a few others but Daniel is running for officer and was UFC. We have an entire ICE contingent running. And many who have not been tied to any caucus. So with almost 560 candidates, ABC has shown organizing chops.
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