When bank robber Willie Sutton was asked why he robs banks he answered: Because that's where the money is.
I apply the same logic in response regarding UFT elections. I don't put down getting votes from anywhere -- The aim is to win and for those who don't realize --
If you really want to win go where the votes are.
Otherwise you are running not to win, but to make a point.
Now I do see people turning their noses up at some voters -- like Unity defectors or the non-lock step ideologues or heaven forbid, the potential 30-35% UFT Trump voters. If you turn up your nose at potential voters, you don't want to win.
Saturday, Jan. 26, 2025
Many critics who attack me for daring to think outside the box, assume that if two slates run in the UFT election, it is impossible to beat Unity.
“When you have eliminated the
impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Sherlock Holmes
So let's look at how to to turn the impossible into the improbable into the possible: A win for ABC.
It may seem "improbable" for ABC to win, but I believe a win is impossible for ARISE in a 3-slate race. Thus, only a vote for ABC can turn the improbable into the possible and Sherlock says that must be the truth.
Elementary, my dear Watson.
Unity Must Go in order to win
I've been accused of changing positions in mid-stream. I have always been in favor of one slate to challenge Unity. I also believed that we can't win unless we weaken Unity at its core -- in the schools where they have an army of chapter leaders and influencers, especially in the elementary schools where there are 36 thousand potential voters and Unity always wins big. (66% in 2022).
Going back to the late 90s and looking at a weak and ineffectual opposition back then, I decided that winning over people in Unity would be essential to winning an election and I initially aimed Ed Notes at appealing to Unity people who wanted change in the union. And I did get an audience. But the minute I made even the mildest criticism of the new leadership under Randi, I lost them. So I switched into full-blown oppo mode. Now I see the first real opportunity for a permanent break in Unity at the in-service level to go along with the break in the retiree and para chapters.
In the past elections, winning a sliver, the high schools and maybe the middle schools was the realistic goal. But conditions have changed and I'm not interested in slivers. The idea of winning the entire enchilada is what has gotten people so excited. They seem to take winning for granted. I don't take anything for granted.
And conditions have certainly changed since the 2022 elections when every voice of the opposition was involved in United for Change.
I change due to changing conditions. And the numbers for UFC were not great. Somehow people think that the current version of UFC, a weakened ARISE - with 3 caucuses involved - two of which are no stronger than they were in 2022 - would win if they were the only ones running because the third caucus, RA, seems so much stronger based on its big win last June. My claim is that RA as an organizing group of 11, is not really stronger than it was in 2022 and in terms of a general UFT election it has the same limited direct outreach. RA won 63% due to the influx of voters, many from Unity, and many coming from Marianne's supporters. Many Unity voters may just drift back in a general election.
As a member of the RA org committee of 11, I was the lone dissenter from joining this coalition and urged RA to stay neutral, and could play a mediator role. MORE and New Action needed RA to be part of the coalition as a way to sell a winning strategy because both of them, which aim at the in-service people, understand they have failed to attract a wide enough following with in-service people to win without the retirees. My position has been that the oppo have opposed the impact of retirees on elections for decades but now are switching course in mid-stream and that to win an election loaded with retirees would be destabilizing and further alienate the in-service where a majority are on Tier 6. How do they feel about being led by people who are on Tier 1, as ARISE is offering?
I try not to stick with a pattern of a losing strategy. In 2022 I believed in all caucuses and non-caucuses should get together in United for Change. And the outcomes of that effort was disappointing, to the point I have been willing to look at alternate ideas. I am still for one slate, but not the same kind of election management under caucus guidance, like UFC was. Instead I believe in one slate under a broad based and group of individuals capable of growth from the ground up, whether people are in a caucus or not --- but not to allow a small group of people to make the basic decisions -- call it a steering committee -- instead to open up the process to the broader based UFT membership. In other words, we don't just want your vote in May, we want you involved from the ground up in the entire process.
So let's go back to the opening question: where are the votes?
Certainly retirees where 39% return ballots and the recent flip from Unity in the RTC election is major. Clearly, many former Unity voters flipped over the Medicare issue and voted for RA. Will that flip hold for a general election? While those former Unity voters may have been pissed off enough at Mulgrew and Tom Murphy's role to vote them out, are they willing to turn over the entire union to a group consisting of RA, New Action and MORE, with MORE being the dominant player in this group? Frankly, I don't think so.
But given another alternative that includes a number of people who have left Unity, these voters may feel they have another place to go rather than go back to Unity. It's as simple as ABC.
Where else can we find votes? Remember the Para election where Fix Para Pay won 75% in an admittedly low turnout vote in a para chapter that has 27k potential voters? Unity has noticed and is suddenly showing interest in making paras welcome, though fixing their pay is not on their agenda. But there is a group that is very committed to fighting for para pay and to fight for other things issues they want - like ILOD - Injury in Line of Duty protection and other issues beyond pay like some prep time. Can the para unit be energized to vote in this election and where are those votes likely to go? It's as simple as ABC.
Now how about the disaffected anti-Mulgrew Unity Caucus people? I don't mean the full-time staff who are clinging to their jobs, but the rank and file Unity people who are often chapter leaders, some with after school jobs? How many potential votes do they offer? The important issue in this case is can they bring their staffs and other Unity friends along with them, which could add up to thousands of votes? While there's no way to tell since most Unity are silent (though sending private encouragement), there are underground indications of a growing revolt, that if it catches on, will make a major dent in the Unity votes. And we have been seeing an erosion of Unity votes over the past elections. But Unity voters will not go to a MORE tinged group. It's as simple as ABC.
How about retirees? The assumption since June was that the same massive vote would go to Retiree Advocate. But they've aligned with MORE, leading to these comments on my last blog post:
John Q Teacher: I thought
that RA was Mariannes's baby? Why would she abandon it and secretly
endorse ABC? I'm confused. I really wish she would speak publicly about
where she stands on who she is supporting.
Anon: This shit
is just too complicated to follow. I was a retiree. I will vote for
whoever Marianne recommends. Stick that up your ass, Mr. Mulgrew.
Marianne has clearly leaned toward ABC, and made reference to ABC in public comments, sparking the Unity attacks on her. So where will her followers go? It's as simple as ABC.
Now, let's look at the vast unknown -- the 80% of working UFT members who don't vote. This is the territory that both Unity and the caucuses, following the same formula in every election, have not been able to mine. Why would they be more successful this time?
Can a new campaign paradigm make a dent in the 80% non-voters? Here I won't claim It's as simple as ABC because it hasn't been successful before, so let's call this an interesting premise, that if proven correct, will make it as simple as ABC.
What are these new tactics? I ain't saying just yet as many ideas are still in process, but turnouts for ABC events have been very promising. And email lists are growing. I will get deeper into the unique experience I've had working with ABC in future posts.
ABC has a chance to win in a 3 way race by draining Unity votes and winning new voters in the schools and old voters from the retirees. Whether it works or not, we will learn a lot.
For my money, a vote for any group other then ABC is a wasted vote.
Everyone is invited to run with ABC. Sign up here.
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