My take is that Android is an unmitigated disaster for Google. It could go down in history as an historic error as great or greater than IBM's failure to secure the IP of MSDos and the x86 chip, giving away the PC market to Microsoft and Intel.
Look at what happened. Google were sitting pretty in a special relationship with Apple: with Schmidt on the Apple board and Page a friend of SJ and being mentored by him. Google benefitted hugely. Google was the default search engine and Google the default maps
They betrayed SJ, stabbed him in the back "Et tu Brute"? They appear to have used insider knowledge of the iPhone to secretly switch the Android from a Blackberry to iPhone look alike, allegedly stealing IP wholesale from Oracle, Microsoft and of course Apple and created a mortal enemy of SJ who, quite naturally declared nuclear war on these treacherous ......s. But far from benefitting Google shareholders, Android is a money pit sucking the lifeblood out of Google.
Google have invested countless billions in Android, even more billions in buying that other money pit Motorola, have enmeshed themselves in the most humungously expensive global litigation mess imaginable, being sued by three of the richest and most successful companies on the planet. They are facing death by a thousand cuts, with unimaginably large legal fees, damages, licence fees and compensation, to say nothing of destroying Google's reputation as the "Good" "Do No Evil" company, turning it into into the most sordid, hacker, privacy and IP robber of all time and the probability of facing serious anti-trust investigations by the US and EU.
And all for what? 80% of their mobile revenue comes from their mortal enemy Apple, who will leave no stone unturned to stick in and twist the knife and will doubtless use Siri to undermine and exploit Google search and Google maps, hiding the vital user information that Google need, depriving them of the advertising revenue which is their whole raison d'être.
Remember: this is just $1.70 of revenue (NOT PROFITS) per user. It means that Google are running massive losses on every Android device, while Microsoft are earning net profits from the licensing to Android OEMs amounting to more than 5 times as much as Google's revenue. To make matters worse, Amazon have castrated Google's revenue by forking Android cutting off their revenue stream. Samsung and other OEMs may do the same.
But the real sword of Damocles for Android is Apple's world wide legal battle to stop them using Apple IP. This campaign is still at an early stage, given the snails pace of litigation, but is beginning to show signs of real progress. Bit by bit Apple is degrading Android stripping it of the user satisfaction of iOS's look and feel. Perhaps the most significant Apple victory is the recent ruling by Judge Posner upholding the largest part of Apple's touchscreen heuristics ('949) patent in their case against Motorola. Winning this patent case against Motorola could be a turning point, stripping Android of its iPhone gestures, and turning Motorola to stinking, rotting carcase around Google's neck.
What is most amazing about Motorola and to a lesser extent Samsung is that their principle defence case against Apple and Microsoft consists of attempting to abuse essential patents protected by FRAND, which is likely to bring crashing upon their heads (and of Google who have publicly supported their underhand tactics) the wrath of the EU and US anti-trut bodies. Bear in mind that the EU can fine all three companies 3 times their annual turnover for such gross and barefaced violations. Google now have few friends in Europe and the knives are circling. Perhaps it is soon going to be "Et tu Brute" time for Google. Revenge is sweet, as they say!
