Coastal Geomorphology Research Papers

MANAGING AND EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF LARGE RESEARCH PROGRAMMES

2009

This research was funded by, and implemented within, a UK national research organisation, while the author was the KE and Impact Evaluation Manager responsible for assessing impact on a £15m UK government-funded research programme. This... more

This research was funded by, and implemented within, a UK national research organisation, while the author was the KE and Impact Evaluation Manager responsible for assessing impact on a £15m UK government-funded research programme.

This work was also submitted as the authors MBA dissertation which was accepted and awarded in 2009.

ABSTRACT: A methodology and methods ‘toolbox’ is proposed for conducting impact research and assessment from within research programmes. The emphasis is upon how to clarify and assess the wider impacts from the early stages onwards.

The approach explicitly acknowledges, and attempts to address, the known issues and challenges of impact assessment while drawing upon the resources and opportunities available to research managers and researchers within such programmes.

The study has two triangulating foundations. Firstly, it examines the academic literature to help identify and design the pilot methodology and methods. Secondly it trials these in a real programme to both test and improve them.

The study was conducted over one year within one leading UK research organisation, where two research programmes (and around 60 research projects of £15m total value) were being assessed for their impacts. The study draws upon actual impact management experience and reflection, prospective (ex ante) and retrospective (ex post) assessments, participatory contributions from leading researchers undergoing assessment, and consultation with external users. The findings of this study outline the pilot and its first iteration. Recommendations are made for improvement to the methodology and methods.

A subsequent follow-on bid to UK government incorporating the impacts identified from implementing this methodology, successfully led to a further £15m of government funding.

It is expected the pilot methodology and methods will be applicable to other organisations, conducting and funding such research programmes, required to research and assess the wider research impacts.

Although primary focus of implemetation trials was upon research in physical sciences, technology, high-tech engineering, computing/IT, and environment, the wider literature study, the methodology design and justification, the methods proposed and used, and the resulting general recommendations and lessons are expected to apply more broadly to many other research areas, where the impact is to be found more widely in the society, economy, government or public sector or within organizations, policies, professions or the public.

Interest in this work is expected from research programme managers, impact managers and assessors, management consultants advising in this area, and government funding managers, all seeking to embed a developing approach to understand, capture, and enhance wider impact.

earlier and later stages, linking idea generation to the marketplace:

TABLE 3.1: Grounding methodology and methods in literature best practice

Table 3.2: Three proposed methods within the methodology

TABLE 3.3: Analysis summary for each proposed method

2D analysis matrix with possible assessment ‘grades’ is exemplified in the table below.

TABLE 8.1: Complimentary aspects of the different methods

TABLE 10.1: Method improvements suggested after trial

data matrix analysis, gives the table below gives some case examples. information needed, and enable easier communication of the programme as a whole.

impact research and assessment may differ by impact mechanism (to be developed).

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PaleoAmerica A journal of early human migration and dispersal Early Human Settlement of Northeastern North America Early Human Settlement of Northeastern North America

by Darrin Lowery and

This paper summarizes current evidence for earliest human occupation of northeastern North America during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. We review evolution of the region's landscapes and evidence of archaeological chronologies... more

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Monte Albán en la encrucijada regional y disciplinaria. Memoria de la Quinta Mesa Redonda de Monte Albán. (2011)

by Iván Rivera

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Geoscience of ancient Mediterranean harbours

by Christophe Morhange

2007, Earth-Science Reviews

Although much has been written on the subject of ancient Mediterranean harbours, the relatively new area of harbour geoarchaeology remains dispersed in the geoscience and archaeological literature. Over a decade of research has amassed... more

Fig. 1. Braun and Hogenberg’s sixteenth century reconstruction of Portus, near Rome (volume IV, 1588). This representation is typical of the Renaissance antiquarian tradition whereby, in the absence of precise topographical information, speculative graphic reconstructions were reached.

Fig. 2. A. Silting up of Portus at Ostia as represented by Garrez (1834, in d’Espouy, 1910). B. Garrez’s reconstruction of the ancient port on the basis of measured topographical features. The plans were inspired by the work of Canina (1830). In general terms, the nineteenth century marked a watershed between the antiquarian tradition of the Renaissance period and modern topography. It was around this time that a number of scholars started to draw the link between harbour silting and coastal progradation to explain the demise of ancient seaports.

Fig. 3. Antoine Poidebard was one of the pioneers in underwater and coastal archaeology. He coupled aerial photography and underwater surveying to propose harbour locations for a number of Phoenicia’s coastal sites. The oblique aerial photograph is of the Tyrian peninsula. In 332 BC, Alexander the Great linked the offshore island fortress to the continent by means of a causeway. This engineering feat profoundly influenced sediment trapping behind the island and today a tombolo, or sand spit, links the two. Poidebard diagnosed a series of harbourworks on the southern coastal fringe of Tyre. New research suggests that this area is in reality not a harbour basin but rather a drowned urban quarter, which sank into the sea during late Roman times (photographs from Poidebard (1939) and Denise and Nordiguian (2004)). archaeology, Poidebard coupled this aerial reconnaissance with diving surveys to propose harbour reconstructions for numerous Phoenician city-states (Nordiguian and Salles, 2000; Viret, 2000; Denise and Nordiguian, 2004; Fig. 3). The aeroplane, symbol of technical modernity during the 920s, offered new research avenues in archaeology and even if Poidebard was not the first to realise this, he was a pioneer in developing a clearly defined methodology. Relying on reports from ‘hard-hat’ divers he surveyed and mapped a number of important coastal sites including Arwad, Sidon, Tyre and Carthage. Although some of his findings have since proved erroneous (Frost, 1971; E Amouri et al., 2005) his work laid the foundations for maritime archaeology as we know it today. His methodica documentation and recording (aerial reconnaissance, cartography and underwater photography) is all the more important for modern scholars working in this region given the destruction of many remains wrought by recent building (Marriner and Morhange, 2005). Invention of the aqualung revolutionized underwater archaeology after 1945, with a coeval shift in research loci away from the ports themselves to shipwrecks. Over the following decades, many ancient wreck sites were subsequently localized along the coasts of France and Italy (Pomey and Rieth, 2005). A minority of scholars continued to show an interest in ports and harbour infrastructure, notably at Appollonia in Libya (Flem- ming, 1961, 1965, 1971), Athlit in Israel (Linder, 1967), Carthage in Tunisia (Yorke and Little, 1975; Yorke, 1976; Yorke et al., 1976), Cosa (Lewis, 1973; McCann, 1979; McCann et al., 1987), Pyrgi (Oleson, 1977) and Portus in Italy (Testaguzza, 1964, 1970), Phaselis in Turkey (Blackman, 1973a), Kenchreai (Scranton and Ramage, 1967) and Porto Cheli in Greece (Jameson, 1973), and the ancient harbours of Israel (Galili et al., 2002). Under- water archaeologists such as Frost also did much for the development of aquatic survey techniques during the

Fig. 4. The three pillars of the Roman market at Pozzuoli (southern Italy) have become a secular icon of uniformitarianism since their publication in Charles Lyell’s Principles of Geology (1830). Lyell argued that the rise and fall of the coastal archaeology showed the land had undergone significant vertical movements since antiquity.

Fig. 5. Jules Verne 3, a Roman dredging boat unearthed in Marseilles’ ancient harbour. The vessel dates from the first to second centuries AD. The central dredging well measures 255 cm by 50 cm. The wooden hull has been preserved by the enveloping harbour clays (photograph: Morhange).

Fig. 7. Ancient harbour classification based on four variables (1) proximity to the coastline; (2) position relative to sea level; (3) sedimentary environments; and (4) taphonomy.

Fig. 9. Non-exhaustive map of the Mediterranean’s ancient habours, grouped according to how they have been preserved in the geological record.

Palaeolithic cave of Cosquer is one of the best Medi- terranean examples of human occupation of the con- tinental margin and post-glacial sea-level rise (Fig. 11). Painted horses dated ~ 18,000 BP have been partially eroded at current sea level testifying the absence of any sea-level oscillation higher than present. Transgression of the continental platform gradually displaced coastal populations landwards until, around 6000 BP, broad sea- level stability meant that human societies started to sedentarise along present coastlines (van Andel, 1989). Fig. 10. Last Glacial Maximum shoreline and transgression of the Mediterranean’s coastal margin since 18,000 BP, when sea level was around 120 m below present (after Bracco, 2005). The drowning of a great number of Palaeolithic sites means that our understanding of coastal prehistoric human groups in the Mediterranean is relatively poor.

Fig. 11. Cosquer is a French Palaeolithic painted cave (27,000—18,500 BP). The partially drowned cavern has formed in the Urgonian limestones of Cap Morgiou, near Marseilles. The entrance, 37 m below sea level, was submerged around 7000 BP (Sartoretto et al., 1995). Archaeological studies indicate that the cave was used as a refuge around 27,000 and 18,000 BP. The partially eroded cave paintings demonstrate there has been no sea level higher than present during the Holocene (adapted from Vouvet et al., 1996).

Fig. 12. Geomorphological reconstruction of Alexandria’s ancient harbour by Goiran et al. (2005). The Heptastadion, constructed by Alexander the Great in 331 BC, separated Alexandria’s bay into two separate coves. The Eastern Bay shielded a number of discrete port basins. The Royal port is presently drowned ~5 m below present sea level. Goiran (2001) has reconstructed the Holocene history of Alexandria’s ancient harbours using coastal stratigraphy and numerous geoscience tools. Corings by Stanley and Bernasconi (2006) from the centre of the Eastern Bay show no diagnostic harbour sediments, suggesting that this area lay outside the main artificial basins.

Fig. 13. Pozzuoli’s drowned harbour remains presently ~ 10 m below mean sea level. The site lies inside a caldera, where shoreline mobility is attributed to volcanism and faulting. Recently, scholars have reconstructed a complex history of post-Roman relative sea-level changes evidencing three metric crustal oscillations at both Pozzuoli (Morhange et al., 2006a) and Miseno (Cinque et al., 1991) between the fifth and fifteenth centuries AD. Research suggests that inflation—deflation cycles are linked to a complex interplay of deep magma inputs, fluid exsolution and degassing (photograph: CNRS, CJB, Naples). By contrast, uplifted harbours resulting from crustal movements are much rarer. The best geoarchaeological evidence for this harbour type derives from the Hellenic arc, an area long affected by the complex tectonic interplay of the African and Anatolian plates (Stiros, 2005). The Gulf of Corinth is a deep inlet of the Ionian Sea separating the Peloponnese from western mainland Greece. It is one of the most tectonically active and rapidly extending regions in the world (6—15 mm/yr), and surface features (uplifted shorelines, reversal of drainage patterns, earthquake-induced landslides) and archaeology are clearly associated with seismic activity (Papadopoulos et al., 2000; Koukouvelas et al., 2001;

Fig. 14. Greek and Roman port remains were discovered in the Bourse area of Marseilles during the 1960s. These vestiges, in the heart of the modern city, have since been converted into museum gardens. The preserved port buildings date from the end of the first century AD, although these were preceded by earlier constructions in an area known as “the Port’s Horn”. Prone to silting, the area was abandoned from late antiquity onwards. The modern Vieux Port is clearly discerned in the background and attests to progradation of the coastline landlocking the ancient seaport (photograph: CNRS, CCJ, MMSH, Aix-en-Provence).

Fig. 15. Progradation of Marseilles’ northern harbour coastline since the Neolithic. The coastlines were studied in section during archaeological excavations and each historic coastline was defined on the basis of its archaeological remains (quays, jetties). Note the progressive regularisation of the coastline. After Morhange et al. (2003).

Fig. 16. Cartagena’s buried urban seaport (from Garcia, 1998). Cartagena was founded ~230 BC by Carthaginian general Hasdrubal. Coastal stratigraphy and archaeology indicate that the heart of the ancient seaport is presently located beneath the city centre.

Fig. 17. Morphodynamic evolution of Alexandria and Tyre’s isthmuses since antiquity. Research at both sites has elucidated a proto-tombolo phas« within 1—2 m of sea level by Hellensitic times (Goiran, Marriner and Morhange, unpublished data). This proto-tombolo phase greatly facilitated th construction of the two artificial causeways.

Fig. 18. A. Early twentieth century photographic mosaic of Portus. B. Geoarchaeological interpretation of the site (after Giuliani, 1996). Portus Claudius has completely silted up since antiquity, whilst the artificial Portus Traiani today comprises a freshwater lake. Progradation of the beach ridges is clearly evidenced by the aerial photography.

Fig. 19. Coastal progradation of the Menderes delta and the landlocking of Priene, Miletus and Heracleia’s ancient seaports (from Miillenhoff et al., 2004).

Fig. 21. Ampurias’ Roman harbour. Exposed wave conditions coupled with avulsion of the river Fluvia to the north of the settlement have led to a fall in sediment supply and a gradual erosion of the harbour infrastructure during the past two millennia. The ancient Greek harbour had to be abandoned due to silting up of the basin (photographs: Marriner). Eroded harbours can result from two complementary geological processes: (1) a fall in sediment supply to the coastal zone; and/or (2) the destruction of harbourworks in areas exposed to high energy coastal processes. The best examples of eroded harbours date from the Roman period, when natural low-energy roadsteads were no longer a prerequisite for harbour ___location. At many high to medium energy coastal sites across the Mediterra- nean, the Romans constructed large enveloping moles to shelter an anchorage basin on its leeward side. Good examples of eroded ancient harbours include Carthage, Caesarea Maritima and the Roman port of Ampurias (Nieto and Raurich, 1998). Eroded outer harbour remains at Caesarea Maritima are still clearly visible. During the first century BC, King Herod ordered the construction of a royal harbour of the size of that of Piraeus. Roman engineers em- ployed pozzolan concrete to build free-standing moles nean, the Romans constructed large enveloping moles to Although the ___location of Punic Carthage has never been lost to memory, academic speculation has persisted concerning the ___location, shape and number of its harbours during the Late Punic period (Little and Yorke, 1975; Hurst and Stager, 1978). Gifford et al. (1992) cross- correlated brackish-lagoon stratigraphies to reconstruct the coastline and harbour areas of Carthage. The work shows a shallow (4—5 m below MSL) artificial harbour dug down into a Quaternary aeolianite sandstone and flooded by marine waters in the third century BC. The team elucidate two interlinked basins: (1) a commercial port; and (2) a shallower, circular military harbour. Eventual erosion of the harbour is indicated by overlying anthropogenic and high energy beach facies, consistent with the hub’s abandonment (Paskoff et al., 1985).

Fig. 22. Coastal reconstruction of Kition-Bamboula (Cyprus) according to various authors. Nicolaou (1976) and Gifford (1978) speculated the presence of a cothon harbour based on modern engravings showing a lagoon. Morhange et al. (2000) demonstrated that Bamboula basin was in fact a small cove within a larger lagoon. The work reinforces the idea that recent landscape patterns should not be extrapolated to antiquity.

Fig. 23. Hesse’s new hypothesis for the ___location of Alexandria’s causeway, based on geoelectrical prospections (modified from Hesse, 1998).

Fig. 24. Facies, sedimentary processes and anthropogenic impacts: research tools used in the study of ancient harbour sequences

SEM photograph of quartz grains evolving in Alexandria's ancient harbour Alexandria I-26: Evolved Non-Eroded quartz grain from ancient harbou clays at Alexandria.

Alexandria I-11: High energy trace shock. Alexandria I-11: Fracture surface on the face of a quartz grain.

Fig. 26. Biostratigraphic indicators of confined harbour conditions.

Fig. 27. Pollutant lead at Alexandria during the past 3000 yr (adapted from Véron et al., 2006). The use of lead geochemistry has elucidated pre- Hellenistic pollutants at Alexandria, suggesting an advanced settlement at the site before the arrival of Alexander the Great in 331 BC.

Fig. 28. Pollutant lead contamination at Sidon’s ancient harbour (adapted from Le Roux et al., 2003).

Fig. 29. Lithostratigraphy of the Mediterranean’s best studied ancient harbours. This highstand anthropogenic facies comprises uncharacteristically high levels of fine-grained material (Marriner a1 Morhange, 2006a,b).

Fig. 30. Lithofacies and key stratigraphic surfaces of (A) the Coastal Progradational Parasequence and (B) the Ancient Harbour Parasequence. Adapted from Marriner and Morhange (2006b).

Fig. 32. Stratigraphic section from Naples’ port (Piazza Municipio) showing the high variability of sedimentary fluxes. Anthropogenic impact is fundamental in explaining the harbour silting up. Excavations directed by D. Giampaola (Archaeological Superintendence of Naples) and assisted by V. Carsana.

Fig. 33. (A—B) Tufa substratum scour marks resulting from Roman dredging of the harbour bottom at Piazza Municipio, Naples. Excavations directed oy D. Giampaola (Archaeological Superintendence of Naples) and assisted by V. Carsana.

Fig. 34. Top: Marseilles excavations, Place Jules Verne. Bottom: the upper limit of fixed fauna on stakes from the harbour’s Roman quays. By measuring the upper altimetric difference between fossil and contemporary populations it is possible to accurately infer palaeo-sea levels during antiquity (photographs: Morhange).

Fig. 35. In the ancient harbour of Marseilles (southern France), marine fauna fixed upon archaeological structures, allied with bio-sedimentary data document a steady 1.5 m rise in relative sea level during the past 5000 yr. A near stable level, at present datum, prevailed from 1500 yr AD to the las century. This trend is similar to the one previously documented on the rocky coasts of Provence, southern France. Field observations inside an: outside the harbour confirm that no sea-level stand higher than present occurred during the study period. Since Roman times, relative sea level ha risen by ~50 cm (after Morhange et al., 2001).

Fig. 8. Non-exhaustive list of harbours classed into seven groups.

Fig. 31. Definitions of the AHP’s key facies and surfaces. (Frost, 1995; Raban, 1995). Gradual improvements in harbour engineering are recorded by increasingly fine- grained facies, up until the Roman period when pozzolan concrete marked a revolution in maritime infrastructure (Oleson et al., 2004). Natural roadsteads were no longer a prerequisite to harbour loci and completely artificial ports, enveloped by imposing concrete moles, could be located on open coasts (Hohlfelder, 1997). Plastic clays tend to be the rule for this period.

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On the Lion Harbour and other Harbours in Miletos: recent historical, archaeological, sedimentological, and geophysical research

by Marc Müllenhoff and

2014, Proceedings of the Danish Institute at Athens 7, 2013, 49-103

The Lion Harbour was Miletos’ most prominent harbour during antiquity. It can be envisaged as the heart of the Ionian metropolis in western Asia Minor. Originally situated in a bay of the “(I-)Karian Sea”, Miletos is now fully... more

The Lion Harbour was Miletos’ most prominent harbour during antiquity. It can be envisaged as the heart of the Ionian metropolis in western Asia Minor. Originally situated in a bay of the “(I-)Karian Sea”, Miletos is now fully incorporated into the plain of the Maeander river, today’s Büyük Menderes.
In this article we combine results from historical and archaeological research with those from palaeo-geography and geophysics. This geoarchaeological approach offers new insights into the dynamic evolution of the harbour basin from the time of the marine transgression in the early Bronze Age (c. 2500 BC), when the area formed part of an island, until its final siltation by the sediments of the river Maeander c. AD 1500.
The Lion Harbour’s outstanding significance is clear from its strategic role as one of the closable war harbours of Archaic and later times. Its central position in the Archaic insula street grid, lining the agora and the main city sanctuary of Apollo Delphinios, made it a gate through which, so to speak, gods and humans entered the city; it was also the point from which Milesians left the city to start their sailing seasons or found their many colonies. The Lion Harbour is likely to be identified with the “Harbour of Dokimos” mentioned by the 1st century AD novelist Chariton (Chaireas and Kallirhoë 3.2.11)
The commercial relevance of the Lion Harbour, however, was quite limited in antiquity. Miletos had a series of other harbours that fulfilled this function: the Theatre Harbour is perhaps the oldest of Miletos’ harbours; it also served as a closable harbour in Geometric-Archaic times. Other important harbours are the Humei Tepe Harbour and the Eastern Harbour at the eastern fringe of the peninsula; one of them, most probably the Eastern Harbour, should be identified with the emporion, or commercial harbour, where the slave market was located. Together, this quartet might be equated with the four harbours of the city Strabon mentions (Geographica 14.1.6). Finally, there are the Athena and Kalabak Tepe harbours, both of only minor importance. An overview of the evidence for all these harbours is given at the end of the article.

Fig. 1. Miletos seen from the German excavation house in the south (Akkéy). The Hellenistic-Roman theatre with the Byzantine-Turkish castle on top is situated on Kale Tepe. The Lion Harbour lies in the natural depression between this little hill and the one to the right (Humei Tepe). The floodplain of the Biiyiik Menderes valley in the middle ground occupies the area of the former marine embayment (part of the “(I)Karian Sea”). The mountain chain of the Mykale is visible in the background. Photograph: H. Brickner (28 August 2010).

Fig. 2. The Lion Harbour (“Harbour of Dokimos”?) viewed from the Byzantine castle on Kale Tepe. Above: the seaward part of the harbour with the earth dam at its entrance; this was erected in 1984/85 against the regular flooding of the river Biiyiik Menderes (Maiandros, Maeander) and followed the presumed course of the ancient moles at the closable harbour entrance. Below: the landward part of the harbour is covered by excavation spoil. In the middle ground to the right: area of the Delphinion (sanctuary of Apollo Delphinios), the Selcuk Baths, and the so-called Ionian Hall (building with columns) at the Processional Road. Photographs: H. Briickner (1 October 2008).

Fig. 3. Aerial photograph of the Lion Harbour from NE. Kale Tepe with Byzantine-Turkish castle (1), Humei Tepe (2), Earth dam of 1984/s, blocking the harbour mouth from the Maeander plain (3), harbour area filled with excavation spoil (4), western end of the Harbour Hall with large Harbour Monument in front (5), Delphinion (6), Selcuk Bath (7), Har- bour Gate (8), Heroon I (of Dokimos?) (9), western lion (10), Turkish caravanserai (Han) (11), Roman baths (12), Turk- ish Derwish cloister (Tekke) (13). Photograph: E. Kiigiik (September 2011).

another famous Milesian sculpture, that of the so-called Kanachos-Apollo in Didyma (Fig. 8).8 Indeed, this very lion is depicted on some Milesian bronze coins of the 3“ to 1* centuries BC, together with

We learn from Strabon that Miletos had four harbours

Fig. 6. The Lion Harbour (“Harbour of Dokimos”?) viewed from the modern earth dam. The excursion group is standing around the weathered and broken statue of the western lion. In the middle ground, the bushy vegetation marks the spoil that earlier excavations had dumped into the silted up, but still swampy harbour basin. In the far background is the escarp- ment of the limestone plateau of the Stefania (the ancient Akron). Photograph: H. Briickner (1 October 2008).

A brief history of Miletos and its dynamic palaeogeo- graphy in relation to its harbours is compiled in Table 1. The palaeogeographic evolution of the Milesian Peninsula (H.B., A.H. & M.M.)

A summary of these findings leads to the conclusion that the transformation from archipelago to peninsula started around 1900 BC. Several corings around the Tem- ple of Athena reveal the siltation process and the gradual changeover from shallow marine to coastal and finally ter- restrial conditions.” A slight marine regression, together with the natural and human-induced areal denudation and accumulation processes described above, contributed to A summary of these findings leads to the conclusion ple of Athena reveal the siltation process and the gradual accumulation processes described above, contributed to

Fig. 1. Progradation of the Maeander Delta from 1500 BC until today. Source: modified after Miillenhoff 2005, 214 fig. 56.

Fig. 12. The Milesian Peninsula on Google Earth. Even after the total siltation of the area, the former peninsula can still be identified: its barren rock is in great contrast to the irrigated green fields of the Maeander floodplain that used to be part of the “(I)Karian Sea” in Greco-Roman times. The satellite image also shows the hilly hinterland and the meandering river course (nomen est omen). View towards SSW with the Aegean Sea in the background. L = Lion Harbour. Source: © Google 2013, date: 16 July 2008, altitude: 1010 m.

Fig. 13. Lion Harbour (“Harbour of Dokimos”?) showing the course of the detected quay wall (“hell. Hafenmauer’, blue line), and modern position of the Harbour Lions (blue circles). Ancient and Medieval buildings in red. Note Heroon I (= “Heroon (hell.)”) next to the Byzantine castle on top of the theatre, presumably the heroon of Dokimos and the phrourion of Tissaphernes/Asandros. Source: modified after Bendt 1968: Nordblatt (section).

Fig. 14. Reconstruction of the inner part of the Lion Harbour (“Harbour of Dokimos”?) in the later Roman period (c. AD 200), with the Harbour Gate, Harbour Hall, and the larger Harbour Monument seen from the north. Note the beach in front of the quay, which is supposed to indicate the ongoing siltation of the harbour. The quay on the eastern side of the harbour is not detected by excavations. This is where the shipsheds (neoria) are presumed to have been located. Model of the Pergamon Museum in Berlin, by K. Stephanowitz 1968, after a model made by H. Schleif c. 1930, lost in WW II. Photo- graph: S. Gribener (April 2003).

case, for example, at the harbour of Samos in the time of Polykrates (before 528 BC),’5 or in the 5" century BC har- bours of Sicilian Naxos and the Zea Harbour of Athens, a quay wall is missing in front of the shipsheds.’° According to Herodotos (6.8.1), Miletos was able to supply 80 triremes in the battle of Lade in 494 BC, even without following the proposal of Hekataios to make use of the treasures of the quay wall is missing in front of the shipsheds.’° According proposal of Hekataios to make use of the treasures of the

Fig. 16. Humei Tepe and the Lion Harbour with topographical relief and superimposed magnetic map (dark and light are positive and negative anomalies, respectively). Red: ancient buildings, yellow: assumed course of the sea wall and closing mole at the harbour mouth. Source: modified after Rabbel et al. 2006, 211 fig. 4.

Fig.17. Seismic measurements at the western Harbour

The chronostratigraphy of the sedimentation process, The chronostratigraphy of the sedimentation process, based on several '#C age estimates and diagnostic ceramic fragments, reveals considerable morphodynamic chang- es. The very low sedimentation rate between 3960-3790 BC and 510-390 BC, i.e. from the Neolithic/ Chalcolithic until the Archaic periods, of only 0.6 mm/a, is evidence ofa still intact ecosystem with a low sediment flux in the environs of the Lion Harbour. Thereafter, the sedimen- tation rate increases to 6.3 mm/a between 510-390 BC and 100-50 BC, i.e. during the Classical and Hellenistic periods, which documents the mobilisation of sediments from the adjacent slopes. The highest sedimentation rate is reached in Roman and early Byzantine times: 12.2 mm/a between 100-50 BC and c. AD 400. This can be explained by the increased human impact on the eco- system in Roman times.’ The same holds true for Lake

quickly. The processed data and any kind of anomalies have to be interpreted. The second step is to verify or fal- sify these interpretations. In many cases this can be done by coring, which is a relatively quick and inexpensive method, causing nearly no damage to the subterranean structures; it is a kind of “minimally invasive” archaeology. The third step is to carry out excavations — the most pre- cise method, but also the most costly and time consuming one; in areas where the groundwater table is high, e.g. in coastal or alluvial archives, excavation is only possible with an expensive well-point system. quickly. The processed data and any kind of anomalies

Fig. 20. Magnetic, seismic, and geoarchaeological investigation in the Lion Harbour. Left: magnetic map of northern har- bour basin. L = present-day position of the lion statues. Dashed red frame = area of 3D seismic measurements; red circles: locations of nine corings for ground truthing of the seismic measurements (cf. Tab. 2). Right: in colour: final topographic model of the basement derived from 3D seismic refraction data (view from NW); black vertical lines: coring hole positions, diamond markers indicate the surface and cored bedrock depths, respectively; grey scale map on top: cut-out from the mag- netic map. The dashed red frames and red circles of the left and right figures correspond to each other. Source: modified after Woelz et al. 2009, fig. 5.20.

Fig. 22. Magnetic and seismic investigation in the Lion Harbour. Dark grey are positive, light grey are negative anomalies. The thickness of the Holocene filling of the harbour basin is based on 2D and 3D seismic refraction data; drilling locations indicated by stars. 3D data was acquired in the framed area around anomaly B. Note that the absolute depths of the 2D and 3D measurements deviate from each other at the frame. Anomaly “F” marks assumed ancient mole to close the har- bour. Anomalies “A’ and “B” most probably belong to the early Byzantine brick constructions, anomalies “C” — “E” proba- bly to the so-called Gotenmauer (wall built against the invasion of the Goths in c. AD 262). Source: compiled after Stiimpel et al. 1999, 91 fig. 2, Woelz 2003, 20, and Woelz et al. 2009.

he images of the gods and their other movables; and on my Fig. 24. Cross-section at the southern fringe of the Lion Harbour embayment (see Fig. 23 for ___location). Source: modified after Miillenhoff et al. 2009a, 101 fig. 3. to leave the city. They departed for Miletos, taking with them vast swarms bred in the lake until the inhabitants were forced

large merchant(?) ships with three masts (18'"/19"" century

Fig. 26. Former Theatre Bay, view from the Roman cavea to the SW. In the foreground Turkish caravanserai (Han) (1). In the middle ground: entrance to Geometric-Classical Theatre Harbour (2), Athena Temple Island consisting of Stadion Hill (3) and the area around the Athena temple (4), Athena Harbour (5), Heroon II Island (6). The new Miletos Museum is visible to the left (7). In the background: Kalabak Tepe (“Burdock Hill”) (8) and Kalabak Tepe Harbour (9), Degirmen Tepe (“Windmill Hill”) (10), Zeytin Tepe (“Olive Hill”) with sanctuary of Aphrodite “in Oikous” on top (11), and German excavation house (12). Photograph H. Briickner (August 2010).

Fig. 27. Aerial view of the city centre of Miletos from the NE. In the foreground: Humei Tepe (1), Lion Harbour (2) and Kale Tepe (3). In the middle ground: North Market (4), Maeander with modern dam to the west (5), area of East Har- bour (6), South Market (7), Ilyas Bey Mosque (AD 1404) (8), Roman Faustina Baths in the area of the former Theatre Harbour (9). In the background: modern village of Balat (since 1955) (10). Photograph: E. Kiigiik (September 2011).

Table 2. Depth of the soft rock/hard rock contact based on geophysical data (“migrated depth”) and coring evidence (“drilled depth”) from nine coring sites of the Lion Harbour. For the coring sites, see Fig. 20.

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Coastal geomorphology and sea-level change

by Christophe Morhange

2009, Physical geography of the Mediterranean

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The Peopling of Sri Lanka from Prehistoric to Historic Times: Biological and Archaeological Evidence

by Samanti Kulatilake

2016, Companion to South Asia in the past (Eds: Robbins-Schug and Walimbe)

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The eco-history of ancient Mediterranean harbours

by Christophe Morhange and

Ancient harbour contexts have emerged as particularly novel and original archives, shedding light on how humans have interacted with and modified coastal zones since the Neolithic. Around 7,000 years ago, at the end of the post-glacial... more

Fig. 3.1: Plan of Atlit and its harbour. Atlit is a Phoenician harbour in present-day Israel. t was used during Iron Age II and until the end of the Persian era. The study of Atlit has provided invaluable information on the planning and construction of Phoenician harbours in the Levant. The harbour occupies an ideal natural bay on the north and north-east of the promontory upon which the Crusader castle stands. This promontory protects the area from the prevailing winds and swells from the south-west. To the west, protection is af- forded by two rocky islets. In c. 2700 years cal. BP (c. 700 BC) the natural bay was improved by the construction of two moles, each consisting of two parallel walls of ashlars with a stone filling in between: a common Phoenician technique. (Based on a drawing by A. Raban, after Haggi and Artzy 2007).

Fig. 3.3: Submerged Roman harbor of Portus Julius near Pozzuoli, Italy. One marker of the majesty of ancient Rome is its surviving architectural legacy, the remains of which are scat- tered throughout the Mediterranean landscape. Surprisingly, one remarkable aspect of this heritage remains relatively unknown. Beneath the waters of the Mediterranean lie the rem- nants of a vast maritime infrastructure that sustained and connected the Roman empire and its economy. The key to this incredible accomplishment and to the survival of structures in a hostile marine environment was hydraulic concrete. This building material was discovered by the Romans and employed to construct harbour installations wherever needed, rather than only in locations with advantageous geography. The discovery of hydraulic concrete during the early Roman period marked a technological revolution in coastal engineering. (Photo courtesy of the Centre Jean Bérard, Naples).

Fig. 3.4: Late medieval dredging of a harbour. (Woodcut from OLaus Maenus 1555, 420)

Fig. 3.5: Evidence of ancient harbour dredging in Piazza Municipio, Naples. The coastal andscape of the port of Neapolis has been precisely elucidated after 10 years of archaeologi- cal excavations and geoarchaeological investigations. The Graeco-Roman harbour has been ocated in a large cove lying between Municipio square and Bovio square. The excavations revealed several levels of the sandy sea floor of the harbour, which was in use from the late fourth century BC to the fifth century AD. The photograph shows traces of dredging of Hellenistic sediment and volcanic tufa in the Piazza Municipio excavation, line 1. The red line corresponds to the upper surface of dredg- ing scars. Hellenistic sediments filled the dredging depressions. (Photo courtesy of the So- wewemntanwAannan Cwanrtalrn wav? Dawt Awrhkanrlaw~ At ATawrl:\

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PEMODELAN SPASIAL BAHAYA BANJIR ROB BERDASARKAN SKENARIO PERUBAHAN IKLIM DAN DAMPAKNYA DI PESISIR PEKALONGAN

by Ahmad Cahyadi

Tidal flood is predicted to be more severe in the future because of sea level rise due to global warming. Purposes of the study are: 1) identify spatial distribution of tidal flood hazard in Pekalongan coastal area; 2) identify... more

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Assessment of long-term dynamics of the Curonian Spit foredune in response to hydrometeorological regime change

by Anna Cichon-Pupienis

The Curonian Spit is famous for its largest man-made geomorphological feature – a distinctive foredune ridge. The main function of the foredune is to protect the coast and reduce vulnerability during the storms (Duran, Moore, 2013). To... more

Figure 1. Satellite image of the Chesapeake Bay and, to the north, the smaller Delaware Bay. New York City is at the upper right and Washington, DC is at left center. The Chesapeake ecosystem was famously highly efficient in the production of fish, crustaceans and molluscs. However, as with the Baltic Sea, the combination of diffuse and direct pollution, habitat modification, over-exploitation of resources and introductions of invasive species has diminished the productivity and health of this economically, socially and historically important ecosystem. Now, as in the Baltic, the Chesapeake is showing signs of the changing global climate, with more dramatic changes to come. To what condition, then, can we rehabilitate and manage these two great ecosystems?

PannEx is a prospective Regional Hydroclimate Project (RHP) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project (GEWEX). The almost closed structure of the Pannonian basin makes it a unique natural laboratory for the study of the water and energy cycles, focusing on the physical processes of relevance. Figure 1. Pannonian Basin is situated in Central- Eastern Europe.

The Pannonian basin is a transition area between mediterranean, atlantic and continental climates. Figure 2. Pannonian Basin in the belts of mountains in its surroundings

FQ2: Understanding of air quality under different weather and climate conditions: How does a warmer climate affect air quality and human health * Interaction of air quality and water cycle * Interactions with agricultural practices (sol, water and air) * Physics and chemistry of the boundary layer; improving forecasts * Refinement of emission inventories * Perception of populations, urbanisation Figure 3.High pressure associated with stable cold air masses over the Pannonian Basin increase the concentration of air pollutants near the surface (08. December 2015)

3. Some aspects of connecting This presentation illustrates how analytical thinking and intuition can be trained, and | propose a method for connecting both aspects in a systematic way (Omstedt, 2016). The dream group process developed by Montague Ullman, which includes training in analytical, empathetic, and self-reflection skills, is an excellent tool that should be included in university curricula, particularly for science students. In science, we learn to observe nature in an objective way, organizing measurement platforms and building mathematical models. Now is the time to employ methods that help us exploring our driving forces, to improve our communication skills and better understand how humans are influencing society and nature.

Figure 4. Science often starts by making simplified pictures illustrating important factors of a problem, which helps when putting words to the problem (photo: Hillevi Nagel) Visions and dreams are a mode of internal communication that can, through their feelings and symbols, transfer knowledge from our unconscious to our conscious domains. Putting words to one’s feelings is of fundamental importance, as feelings are involved in all kinds of communication between these two parts of our psyche. Symbols have no standard interpretations but instead are replete with allusions and alternative meanings that may push our thinking deeper.

For any challenges we start by trying to catch an idea which is not so easy. In general our thinking may start as a vision or dream. Most people know that when struggling with a problem, the answer may come more easily after a good night’s sleep. While we are sleeping, our minds continue to work and organize the impressions gathered in daytime. It is easy to find examples of brilliant scientists who made discoveries inspired by dreams. For example, Dmitri Mendelev was able to organize the periodic table of the chemical elements based on their atomic numbers after hard work and a dream. In daily life as well, a good night’s sleep can help us solve many problems and open up new visions. Figure 3. Building regional Earth System models that could support improved managements of our sea require considerable improvements in science (photo: Hillevi Nagel)

important role in dream creation and often obtain energy from important and still-unresolved personal issues. All of us bear the burden of earlier life experiences that make us vulnerable, at the same time as we are facing a future replete with challenges. We often need to suppress feelings of, for example, stress and anger to be able to cope with daily life. This internal stress often triggers dreams expressed in a language of feelings and new ideas. Figure 5.This simplified sketch of nature was the trigger for ten years research (BALTEX II) and later the trigger for the new Baltic Earth program (photo: Hillevi Nagel).

Figure 1. Locations of the coastal monitoring stations in the south- eastern part of the Baltic Sea and the Curonian Lagoon. The problem of the Curonian Lagoon ecosystem stability has been frequently raised lately. Global climate change as well as anthropogenic activities may affect this transitional water system and, consequently, saline water dynamics in the Curonian Lagoon.

Figure 1. Setup area of HBM model. Red lines indicate area with rough mesh, blue lines finer mesh, green lines — assumed boundaries of Gulf of Riga

Figure 2. Tracer (surface) at December 7, 2015. After the storm. It is difficult to track the water exchange between Gulf of Riga and Baltic proper just by examining temperature and salinity dynamics (Berzins et al. 2001). Therefore, let us include 3D tracers for this purpose which can vary between O and 1. Tracers are included in HBM source code in order to correctly account advection and turbulent mixing. As an initial condition at October 1, 2015, let us assume that tracer concentration is 1 in Gulf of Riga and O for the Baltic Proper water and elsewhere. Furthermore, we assume that tracer value is 1 in riverine water. Secondary tracer is also used where riverine water value is 0 to study the impact of rivers in Gulf of Riga. On the external boundaries, the tracer value 0 is used.

central and deeper waters in Gulf of Riga. The longer entrance through Irbe strait means that water is often driven back and forth in smaller winds and wind induced tides without major bulk water exchange in total. The entrance through Suur strait is much shorter meaning that inflow events are more frequent, but less quantitative. Less salty water coming out of Gulf of Riga can hardly be seen in west side of Irbe strait as it disperses in much deeper waters. Figure 3. Tracer concentration at latitude of Ruhnu island at February 18, 2016

Figure 4. Time development of tracers 1 in Gulf of Riga together with characteristic inflow currents at Irbe and Suur straits. 1 — surface average, 2 — average at 31 m depth, 3 - inflow current at Irbe strait, 4- inflow current at Suur strait.

Fig. 1. Distributions of spectral density presented in frequency - depth axes (top) and depth-averaged spectral density distributions (bottom) for the u (left) and v (right) velocity components plotted in Distributions of spectral density presented in frequency - depth axes (fig. 1, top) and depth-averaged spectral density distributions (fig. 1, bottom) for the u (left) and v (right) velocity components in the GD point are analysed. On the distributions of spectral density presented in frequency - depth axes the ridges to the right from the main spectral crest of inertial waves (~0.07 cph) up to the frequency ~ 0.1 cph are observed at horizons ~ 20, 50, 60 and 80 m. The ridges to the left down to the frequency ~ 0.055 cph are observed at horizons ~ 50 and 80 m. Such ridges are also observed on the depth-averaged spectra. The presence of these spectral peaks can be explained by the destruction of inertial waves, accompanied by generation of short-term internal waves, or by the increasing (decreasing) of the effective frequency of inertial waves in some time intervals owing to positive (negative) vorticity of the background current.

Fig. 2. Time series of the total velocity amplitude (top), velocity of inertial oscillations (middle) and velocity of short-term internal waves (bottom) obtained after filtration of the ADCP data of total velocity in the GD point. For the total velocity amplitude the whole time series is presented, for the velocity distributions obtained after filtration — separate fragments are presented during which most pronounced inertial oscillations, accompanied by spikes of amplitudes of short-term internal waves, were observed. moments 18, 32, 38, 45, 58, 83, 110 hrs is observed. It confirms the assumption that inertial oscillations favor the generation of short-term internal waves.

Figure 1. Study area and ___location of the hydrographic profiles used in this study. From Kattegat into the Arkona basin they are called: Samsoe Belt, Great Belt, Langeland Belt, Kiel Bight, Fehmarn Belt, Mecklenburg Bight, and Darss sill. Several profiles between the Kattegat and Darss sill (Figure 1) have been investigated with respect to their predictive capability for the salinity of large barotropic inflows. The correlation of the local salinity of the water column in the five days before the start of the inflow period (minimum Landsort sea level) with the salinity of the inflowing water is significant and largest only for the stations close to the Darss sill. The stations on the Kattegat side of the Langeland Belt have smaller variations in the salinity, and significant correlations have neither been found for barotropic inflows in general nor major Baltic inflow in particular. This supports earlier results by e.g. Matthaus and Franck (1989), who could not link the occurrence of major Baltic inflows to positive salinity anomalies in the Kattegat.

Figure 2. Correlation between the persistence and strength of the westerly winds (as depicted in the total sea level change at Landsort) and the salinity of barotropic inflows for major Baltic inflows and all barotropic inflows. Also shown are correlation values and p-values, as well as the standard error. Figure 2 shows the correlation between the salinity of barotropic inflows and the different measures for key atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Significant positive correlations with the salinity of barotropic inflows are found only for the salinity in the Mecklenburg Bight (oceanic prerequisite) and absolute sea level change and sea level change rate (atmospheric prerequisite, the latter is not shown). The absolute value of the minimum Landsort sea level (also not shown) shows no correlation with the salinity of barotropic inflows or major Baltic inflows, even though it is often stated as an important prerequisite to the occurrence of major Baltic inflows. 4. Summary and Outlook In order to demonstrate the effect of different conditions in the hydrographic field onto the salinity of major Baltic inflows, sensitivity experiments with the major Baltic inflow of December 2014 are performed, where the atmospheric forcing is kept but runoff and initial conditions are taken from different dates. It is shown that the salinity of the December 2014 inflow can be predicted from the salinity in the Mecklenburg Bight very well especially when the water column down to the saline bottom layer is taken into account. Initialisation of the simulation of the December 2014 inflow in the 1980s (30 years

Figure 2. Detected LVCs (blue bars) based on smoothed SSE at Landsort for the period 1950-2015, threshold 60 km?; runoff compensated 1.3 km?/day. Red bars mark observed MBIs. Figure 1 shows the original and smoothed time series for the period 2013-2015 which includes the recent MBI in December 2014. This inflow resulted in a total volume change of about 198 km3. For the threshold of 60 km3, additionally considering the mean river runoff (1.3 km?/day), we determined all LVCs from the smoothed times series of sea level/volume changes at Landsort occurring over the period from 1887 — 2015 (Fig. 2). In toto 164 LVCs have been detected. Nearly all MBls during this period coincide with LVCs, differences are due to the applied smoothing of the sea level timeseries.

Figure 1. Sea surface elevation daily averages (blue) and filtered curve (red) at Landsort tide gauge for the period 2013-2015; minima (yellow) and maxima (green) as well as detected LVCs (cyan) based on the threshold of 60 km?.

Figure 3. Cyclone frequency based on NCEP-NCAR SLP reanalysis. and cyclone tracking: top left: 40 days before SSE minimum, top right:: during LVCs period, lower left: climatology, lower right: during MBI months. Composite maps of cyclone pathway have been constructed with respect to the period 1949-2013, based on the identified time intervals associated with LVCs (Fig. 3), where 81 LVCs resulted in 3133 cyclone days.

Thermonailine structure was investigated In the gult in summer 2015. Water column profiler (Figure 1), well proven tool in the Gulf of Finland (e.g. Liblik and Lips 2012), was deployed in the western part of the Gulf of Riga. Two profiles a day, altogether 202 CTD (Conductivity, Temperature, Depth) profiles, were collected from 30 May to 17 September. CTD profiles gathered onboard R/V Salme, upper layer temperature-salinity measurements by flow-through thermosalinograph and coastal time-series were used in analysis as well. Figure 1. Water column profiler testing on the background of R/V Salme. Photo by Fred Buschmann. Overall vertical stratification was mainly controlled by temperature while salinity had only minor contribution. However, local subsurface salinity maxima with variable strength were often observed at profiler ___location. Temperature-salinity profiles gathered by R/V Salme and thermosalinograph data indicated that salt wedge entered to the gulf via Irbe Strait. South-westerly winds evoked an upwelling in the western part of the gulf, including eastern

Five bottom-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler: (ADCP, 300 kHz, Teledyne RD Instruments) time serie: (RW21, R25, P9, P22 and RE20) were performed along the thalweg of the gulf at 4 different ___location (Figure 1). Among them, the westernmost station RW21 and easternmos' RE20 were installed at the same time period ir winter/spring 2012. At station R25 measurements were performed at winter/spring 2014. Stations P9 and P22 hac the same ___location in the central part of the study area but different observation periods, summers of 2010 and 2012 respectively. Figure 1. Map of the Gulf of Finland with bathymetry. The locations of the bottom-mounted ADCP measurements along the thalweg are indicated by yellow dots (4 locations, 5 measurements series).

We studied first how the dispersion (kinetic energy) of zonal (west-east) flow components is divided between unidirectional and two-directional flows. EOF analysis (von Storch and Zwiers, 2001) of near-surface and near- bottom zonal currents revealed bidirectional structure of the most energetic 1st mode during summer series P22 and P9 and winter series R25 with kinetic energy contribution 75%, 67% and 66% _ respectively. Unidirectional 1st mode was_ observed during winter/spring 2012 series RW21 and RE20 with kinetic energy contribution 79% and 92% respectively. During the winter/spring period 2012 (RW21) the vertical normalized amplitude had maximum value on the bottom for the 1st unidirectional mode (maximum 0.98 out of 1.0) and on the surface for the 2nd bidirectional mode (maximum also 0.98). Thus the 1st mode time evolution resembled very well the original bottom layer current (Figure 2, lower panel) and the 2nd mode the upper layer current (not shown). During the summer period 2012 the dispersion at P22 was in vertical more evenly distributed. Still, the most energetic mode describes well the original observations.

The stationary component has a significant role in the seasonal variability of salinity in the surface layer. The ranks are calculated based on the nonstationarity of the process on the background of pre-calculated rows in the stationary approximation is shown in figure 1. It is seen that in some years, there were abnormally high and abnormally low amplitude fluctuations of salinity. Figure 1. Pre-calculated a series of changes in salinity in the stationary approximation (green line) and taking into account the non-stationarity of the process (black line) for surface (a) and bottom (b) layer with a remote trend to station BY15.

Figure 2. The amplitudes of the annual (blue), the semi-annual (green), a third year (orange) and a quarter of annual (purple) harmonics (solid line) and assessing their validity (dotted line) for the surface layer (a) and the bottom layer (b) for the BY15 station .

Figure 1. Five year time series of daily averaged salinity at the central station “GotlandC” in the Eastern Gotland Basin (close tc station BY15). In February 2014 first inflow water of the Nov/Dec 2013 inflows reached the deepest parts of the EGB and caused a step like increase of salinity of 0.3 g kg" near the bottom (see Figure 1). Also the depth layers between 210 and 140m depicted a salinity increase. Here the slowly change pointed to an upward salt flux due to turbulent mixing. The March inflow 2014 was not strong enough to cause a significant signal in the salinity time series. Between August 2014 and January 2015 the salinity remained nearly constant.

Figure 1. Upper panel: Time series of annual mean relative frequency of W+NW and S+E+SE circulation types. Lower panel: detected LVCs (blue bars) and observed MBI-s (red bars). Both time series are for the period 1887-1950.

Figure 2. The same as Fig 1, but for the period 1950-2014.

Figure 1. NEMO-Nordic model ___domain including the model depth.

Gdansk basin and the Central Baltic Sea allowed to trace the development of the situation after the rare event "Major Baltic Inflow" of December 2014 during the all seasons of 2015. It should be noted that after "Major Baltic Inflow" for the first time in decades, the bottom waters of the Bornholm Deep were renewed, the hydrogen sulfide zone disappeared and the oxygen content reached 10 mg/l. The content of oxygen at the end of July was 3 mg/l, and in November decreased to about 1 mg/l. Figure 1. Dynamics of the vertical profiles temperature and salinity in the east slope area of the Slupsk Sill. February 2015 — April 2015.

Figure 2. Dynamics of the vertical profiles temperature and salinity in the east slope area of the Slupsk Sill. November 2015 - January 2016.

Figure 3. Dynamics of the vertical profiles temperature and salinity in the east slope area of the Slupsk Sill. December 2011 — April 2012.

Argo floats have been gathering data set from Gotland Deep since 2013. At December 2014 there was a major Baltic inflow, the impact of which can be seen from Argo’s salinity and oxygen measurements. Figure 2 shows two oxygen measurement profiles, one before the effect is visible, and another after. From the figure we can see that the bottom has received considerable amount of oxygen between the measurements. Figure 2. Two oxygen profiles acquired from an Argo float. Green squares shows oxygen situation at 28 Aug 2014. Black diamonds shows situation around same ___location at 5 May 2015.

Figure 2. Retention efficiency of nitrogen along the Swedish coast calculated with the SCM model. The last approach is simply to calculate characteristics for each model basin.

Figure 3. Retention efficiency of phosphorous along the Swedish coast calculated with the SCM model. The retention efficiency and the coastal filter function for the entire Swedish coastal zone, calculated by the SCM model, will be presented, and different types of retention environments along the coast will be discussed. Some preliminary results are shown in figs. 2 and 3.

Estimates of annual nitrogen input from cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation to the Baltic Sea range from 20 10° kg N up to 800 10° kg N (Degerholm et al. 2008) which is comparable to the total bioavailable nitrogen input from atmosphere and land to the Baltic Sea. Using Baltic Sea ecosystem models that are able to adequately represent cyanobacteria dynamics and N,-fixation rates will help to better quantify how much nitrogen input has occurred in the past and how much there will be in future. Figure 1. The NFIX project is funded by the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Science and Spatial Planning (Formas).

Figure 2. Simplified Cyanobacteria Life Cycle Model (modified after Hense & Beckmann, 2006, 2010).

Figure 3. Schematic figure of the components of the SCOBI model including the life cycle of cyanobacteria.

Figure 4. Preliminary model results (black dots). The red line shows climatological mean seasonal cycle of modelled cyanobacteria in the central Baltic Sea.

Figure 5. Preliminary model results showing spatial and inter- annual variations in the period 1981-2008 of summer blooms of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea.

Figure 1. A typical boreal headstream in the Krycklan catchment, Northern Sweden. Sweden boreal forest catchment flowing into the Baltic Sea. The main aim of the study was to investigate heterogeneity among soil DOC sources with the ultimate goal to improve the modelling of soil DOC export.

leads to oversaturation of surface seawater with CO, (pCO =500-600 atm) and thus also to a significant pH decrease. In spring when the thermal stratification develops and the productive period begins, CO, is consumed and thus the pCO, levels drop. This causes a strong pH increase of up to 8.5 until mid-summer. A certain fraction of the organic matter produced in the euphotic layer is exported to deeper water layers and to surface sediments, where it undergoes mineralization and produces CO, that again decreases the pH. In some deep basins of the central Baltic longer periods (years) of stagnation occur during which, in the absence of oxygen, organic matter is mineralized by sulphate reduction and generates hydrogen sulphide (anoxia). Although CO, is produced during this process, the pH does not further decrease because sulphide formation increases the alkalinity. This effect is reinforced by denitrification that also increases the alkalinity (Ulfsbo et al., 2011). Figure 1. Map of the Baltic Sea showing its division into natural basins and sub-basins

The Archipelago Sea was modelled with 3D hydrodynamic model COHERENS (Luyten, 2013), using a one-way nested setup. The model was implemented in the Baltic Sea with 2nmi horizontal resolution using 80 vertical layers, and in the Archipelago Sea with 0.25 nmi resolution using 40 vertical layers. Figure 1. The Archipelago Sea, located between the Gotland Sea and Bothnian Sea, consists of thousands of small islands and shoals. The area has a complex bathymetry: the depth varies typically between 0 and 50 m, but there are some fault lines which are deeper than 100 m. Locations of two intensive monitoring stations, A—Brand6 and B — Uté, are marked in the map.

Figure 2. Modelled surface layer temperature on 31* July 2006 compared to measurements taken at 1 m depth (included with circles).

We compiled an extensive A; data set based on data derived from the monitoring programs of SMHI and FMI, the Baltic-C project and the Canibal data set (Hjalmarrson, 2008). Figure 1. Map of the Baltic Sea including the distribution of observations and the geographical borders of the assigned subareas Kattegat (Kat), Central Baltic Sea (Cen), Gulf of Bothnia (Bot), Gulf of Finland (Fin) and Gulf of Riga (Rig). The colour scale represents the mean salinity and the point size the number of observations, both on a grid of 0.5° Lon and 0.25° Lat.

Figure 3. Temporal alkalinity trends in the Central Baltic Sea from 1900 — 2015. Displayed are deviations (dA;) of observed A; from mean Ay. Linear regression models (red line + 95% Cl (red area)) were fitted separately within the four time frames indicated by the vertical dashed lines. For the last period (1995-2014) a positive trend of +3.4 mol kg” yr” was identified.

Figure 2. Exemplary A;-S relationship in the Baltic Sea surface water (<20m) for observations from 2008/2009 with linear regression lines for the subareas Kat, Bot, Fin and Rig. Marine Chemistry Department, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemtnde, Germany (Jens.Mueller@io-warnemuende.de)

Figure 4. Alkalinity as a function of salinity and time in the Kattegat and the Gulf of Bothnia from 1995-2014. The colours and black contour lines display A; levels as derived from the best fitting linear 3d models. Grey dots represent the observations included in the analysis.

Figure 5. Mean alkalinity trends (a) and acidification mitigation (b) in the Kattegat, Central Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia for the time period 1995-2014. (a) A; trends displayed as points (+ SE) correspond to the slope of linear regression models fitted separately at each salinity interval (given value +/- 0.5), whereas the lines represent the AT slopes derived from the 3d-models (Fig. 4). The point size depicts the number of observations. (b) Mean annual acidification trend assuming an atmospheric pCO, increase of +2 patm yr’. The dashed line represent the acidification trend assuming that the mean A; was constant, whereas the solid line depicts a mean annual pH decrease taking the observed A; changes into account. The filled area corresponds to the acidification mitigation that increases towards lower salinity.

Figure 1. Nutrient fluxes and pelagic nutrient regeneration in the BALTSEM biogeochemical model (Savchuk et al. 2012) Biogeochemical models often use a_ simplified description of pelagic carbon and nutrient turnover. Organic carbon is mineralized and nutrients bound in organic matter are regenerated by two pathways: Grazers on phytoplankton and detritus respire organic carbon and excrete inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus. Organic carbon and nutrients are also mineralized by temperature-dependent, first order reactions either directly from a detritus pool or via dissolved organic matter state variables that are released from detritus (Figure 1).

Figure 2. Clustermap of the most abundant transporters (>0.5% maximum across all samples) in the metagenomic time-series (33 samples). Samples (columns) and rows (transporters) were clustered using correlation distance metrics and complete linkage clustering. Relative abundances of transporters were standardized across rows to highlight seasonal differences. Column labels denote month and day of sampling, colors refer to season (green: spring, red: summer, yellow: autumn, blue: winter)

Depositions of terrestrially derived strong acids to the Baltic Sea increased towards the second half of the 20" century, but dropped sharply thereafter as both SO, and NO, releases became subject to increasingly strong regulation. The less ambitious reduction in releases from shipping has resulted in an increasingly large proportion of strong acid deposition to the Baltic Sea being derived from shipping. Figure 1. Major elements in the present research program (Swedist Research Council Formas programme “Commercial shipping as a source of acidification in the Baltic Sea (SHIpH).

The effect of strong atmospheric acids on Baltic Sea water depends on the region and period studied. The largest total alkalinity sink per surface area is in the south-western Baltic Sea where shipping is intense (Figure 2). Considering the entire Baltic Sea over the 2001-2010 period, the pH changes are approximately —3 x 10° to -11 x 10° and -4 x 10 * to -16 x 10“ pH units attributable to all emissions and ship emissions only, respectively. The corresponding changes in total alkalinity are approximately -10 to -30 umol kg~ and -1 to -4 umol kg attributable to all emissions and ship emissions only, respectively. Figure 2. The cumulative sinks/sources of total Alkalinity over the 1860-2013 period based on atmospheric deposition of NH, ,SO,/NOx from shipping only. The x-axis represents different sub- basins going from Kattegat to Bothnian Bay.

Figure 3. The proportion of strong acid deposition to the Baltic Sez due to shipping. The coloured lines show projections for the five scenarios presented in Table 1.

Here, we will focus on the effects of the 2014-2015 MBI, which we were able to follow with high resolution using several monitoring and dedicated cruises while the inflow was propagating into the central Baltic Sea. The event resulted in a complete breakdown of the anoxic deep water methane inventory in the central Baltic Sea, which had been stable over at least 7 years since we started our observations in 2008 (Schmale et al., 2010). Apart from displacement, in particular enhanced microbial oxidation at the old as well as the pristine second deep redoxcline let to a decay of the deep water methane pool. Figure 1. Methane concentration (in nmol/L) at station BY15 in the central Gotland Basin from February to end of May, 2015. The deep water methane inventory below the redoxcline, varying in concentration but stable at least since the onset of our observations in 2008, was completely removed in a setting with two oxic-anoxic transitions zones, and oxidation in the pelagic redoxclines was found to be enhanced.

Our observations in the central Baltic Sea verify this hypothesis. They indicate that before the 2014-2015 MBI, enhanced nitrous oxide concentrations have been constrained to the pelagic redoxcline, while concentrations in the deep anoxic central Baltic Sea were -as expected- virtually zero. Very recent data appear to indicate that a pulse of NO from the sediments, the process behind still to be analyzed, accompanied the return to anoxic conditions. Figure 2. Nitrous oxide concentration (in nmol/L) at station BY15 in the central Gotland Basin from February to end of May, 2015. Oxidation processes of the formerly nitrous-oxide free anoxic deep water body foster the nitrification-related nitrous oxide production. The re-establishment of bottom anoxic conditions (not shown) apparently triggers strong nitrous oxide generation at the seafloor (here indicated in the lower right of the panel).

A reconstruction has been done with the satellite data from 1998 to 2011. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced and in agreement with other studies. The maximum is observed during winter with 430 patm in average 360 and 206 atm in summer (Figure 1). Figure 1. Monthly mean pCO2 (in atm) developed using the SOMLO algorithm.

Figure 3. Monthly mean CO2 uptake/emission of the Baltic Sea basins estimated using remotes sensing products. Different lines represent different basins (SB=Southern Baltic, GB=Gulf of Bothnia, GF=Gulf of Finland, CB=Central Baltic). Figure 2. Monthly mean CO2 uptake/emission of the Baltic Sea estimated using remotes sensing products. Different lines represent different wind products used for the estimate.

We present the first estimated CO2 flux climatology based on remote sensing for the Baltic Sea. This gives an estimated annual mean air—sea CO2 flux of —1.7 + 1.0 mmol m-2 d-1 and a seasonal variability of between —14.8 and 12.1 mmol m-2 d-1. The interannual variability is an order of magnitude lower, being between —2.8 and 0.5 mmol m-2 d-1.

Figure 1. Digital elevation model for Lithuania. Terrain data used for the creation of slope map based on LIDAR measurements of the territory.

Based on the calibration strategy created, the territory was divided into 15 regions an upstream basin in each of the regions was calibrated after that the results were validated in the rest of the stations in the region and calibration adjustments done if needed. Figure 2. Hydrological regions. Regions delineated for the use in calibration, based on the differences in water generation, runoff conditions and soils of Lithuania.

Thanks to the models large scale and high resolution we can analyze the results for a large area, but still see the details and variations on a field level allowing us to better trace the nutrient origin and movement from the field to river and sea. Figure 6. Water yield from HRUs. This figure illustrates the rainfall pattern over the territory of Lithuania as water yield from HRUs as well as the local variability depending on the land-use and soil.

Table 1. All observation station calibration result performance by classes. Full calibration performed on 12 stations. Figure 5 Validation Nemunas(Smalininkai). Monthly discharge and nitrate concentrations in Nemunas downstream comparison between observations (red) and model (green)

Based on the results we would like to conclude that the selected resolution gives big benefits even in the large scale calculations as it allows to adequately describe the formation of nutrient run-off and get better results for the nutrient discharge to the sea. Furthermore the created script system allows us to flexibly deploy this model to any territory at any scale, provided the input data. Figure 8. Total phosphorus source apportionment in biggest rivers and outflows.

Figure 7. Nitrate concentrations in river stretches illustrating the dynamic of concentration from upstream to downstream.

Figure 1. Baltic Sea Eutrophication Ratio ER following the definition by HEAT3 procedure. GES for the Baltic Sea would mean values of ER below one. The figure shows a small but significant increasing trend (worsening) of ER (black line). the entire open Baltic Sea was affected by eutrophication, indicating a worsening trend. We apply now the basic methodology used in HEAT, to data derived from carefully calibrated and validated ecosystem model simulations (Lessin et al. 2014). The result of this exercise is shown in Fig. 1, displaying the Eutrophication Ratio (ER- black line), values below 1.0 would indicate a good status. Andersen et al. (2015) calculated from measured data ER values around 1.7 for the period from 1990 to 2000 having a decreasing trend during this period. Our annual spatial mean values, based on gridded data of the full Baltic Sea are smaller (around 1.3), but show a small significant increasing trend, meaning worsening conditions, more in agreement with the conclusions from Fleming-Lehtinen et al. (2015).

For a comparison of the results we do apply the same methodology of calculating the TRIX indicator to ecosystem data from the Mediterranean Sea (Macias et al. 2014). In Fig. 3 we see again (as for the Baltic Sea) the increasing eutrophication trend from the open sea to the coast, as well as several eutrophication hot spots in areas where large rivers are discharging. Note however the different scale, the absolute TRIX values in the Mediterranean Sea are smaller as in the Baltic Sea, may be indicating a less severe eutrophication problem. Figure 3. Mediterranean Sea 50 years mean spatial eutrophication map, as captured by the TRIX indicator. The worsening spatial trend from the open sea towards the coast and especially critical situations near river mouths can be identified. Note the different scale compared to Fig.2.

Figure 2. Baltic Sea 20 years mean spatial eutrophication map, as captured by the TRIX indicator. The worsening spatial trend from the open sea towards the coast and especially critical situations near river mouths can be identified.

3. Baltic Sea application During the last century, eutrophication has dramatically increased in the Baltic Sea, due to important nutrient loadings and a limited water exchange with the North Sea (Savchuk et al. 2008). During the past 20 years, important measures have been taken to hinder the progress of eutrophication; however, due to the long water and nutrient residence times and the complexity of the internal feedbacks, counteracting the measures, results may not be directly noticeable (Vahtera et al. 2007). Figure 1. Basins definition of the Baltic Sea model.

Figure 2. Modeled and monitored DIN and DIP surface concentrations for the Western Gotland Basin.

Figure 1. Map illustrating distribution of sampling stations (*1 - shore; *2 - intermediate areas; *3 - deposition areas).

Figure 1. Available HOAPS data areas for the Baltic Sea region.

Figure 2. Strong wind direction frequency (in %) in 1987 — 2008. Figure 3. Seasonal variation of the storms frequency (%).

Figure 4. Seasonal cycle of the vertically integrated water vapour over the SE Baltic Sea during 1987-2008 and the average of HTW values of the strong wind episodes.

Figure 5. Seasonal cycle of the vertically integrated water vapour over the SE Baltic Sea during 1987-2008 and the average of HTW values for heavy precipitation episodes. HOAPS HTW data analysis showed that during heavy precipitation episodes the HTW over southeastern Baltic exceeds climatology by one-third in mid-summer season (about 10.5-11.5 kg m”), while HTW increases only from 0.2 to 1.4 kg m” in cold season events (Fig. 5).

Figure 1. Modeled return periods of minimum and maximum ice extents in future.

Figure 2. PDF's of mean ice thickness (underformed + ridged ice) in the Bay of Bothnia.

Figure 1. Communication areas of netBaltic system.

Network mechanisms of area B can be successfully utilized for maritime environment monitoring systems being in reasonable range from vessels’ routes. In this case, at the cost of higher transmission latency, the area of data acquisition can be significantly widened.

Figure 1. TERRA Modis Atmosphere image from 2001, February 1st. MODIS (2016). Figure 1 shows a typical example of convective snow- bands reaching the Swedish east coast generating high precipitation conditions along the coast-line.

Figure 2. Two days accumulated precipitation for different mode! systems. challenge to simulate the exact time and ___location of the extreme precipitation. Figure 2 shows an example of the differences in model performance for the accumulated precipitation and its area of a convective snow band event in 1998. 4. Conclusions

Figure 1. Corresponding daily precipitation amounts in mm/d for 50 years return periods. Figure 2. Return periods for 60 mm/d daily precipitation amounts return period in years.

131 mm, respectively (figure 1). Return period for 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 mm daily precipitation amounts varies 11,2, 1,4-3,3, 2,6-10,5, 4,9-32,7 and 9,2-56,7_ year, respectively. Mapping of these results confirm the respective field of values is very inhomogeneous. Results also revealed that the longer the period, the less frequent corresponding precipitation events are, and that these are more randomly distributed due to the growth of relative importance of randomness.

Figure 1. A map of average significant wave heights in meters for the Baltic Sea in 1991 — 2015 from the altimetry measurements. excluded from the further wave climate analysis.

Figure 2. Changes in severe storms (99"" percentile), storm activity (90" percentile), average SWH (50" percentile), and low-level waves (25 percentile) in the Baltic Sea in 1991 — 2015 from the altimetry measurements. The solid lines show a regression line fitted to 1996 — 2015 measurements.

Figure 3. A map of linear trends in significant wave heights for the Baltic Sea in 1991 — 2015 from the altimetry measurements. The color map shows a slope in meters of linear regression, fitted to each ~0.3x0.3 degrees pixel. Crosses indicate the pixels with the statistical significance of more than 95%. The picture shows an overall increase of significant wave heights over the Baltic Sea in 1991 — 2015.

Figure 1. Instability indexes for front convection 19.05.2014

Simulated instability indexes for free convection is shown on the Figure 2. Figure 2. Instability indexes for free convection 08.08.2014

Three study areas (Figure 1) in Lithuanian territory were selected according to differences in recurrence of droughts (Valiukas, 2015). Figure 1. Location of analysed areas

Drought conditions of 2002 in the Southern Lithuania are shown in Figure 2. The extreme drought of 2002 was observed (according to HTC) during the period from 3 August till 14 September. During a drought time the mean air temperature was 2.8 °C greater than 1981-2015 average while precipitation amount was by 44 % less. Standardized NDVI values varied from -1.7 till -2.6. Meanwhile, the early drought formed in the Western Lithuania in 2008. A warm winter led to the early start of vegetation while a negative soil moisture anomaly formed due to thin snow cover during the winter. From the middle of April till the middle of June precipitation amount was by 75 % lower than long- term average. This led to a negative NDVI anomaly in early June. Figure 2. NDVI values in 2002 (green line) and its long term average (1981-2015; black line) in the Southern Lithuania. The red part of line identifies drought which was determined using HTC.

Figure 1. Number of storm situations and the average Hs from 1948 to 2010 The simulated data were compared with instrumental data of the Sweden buoys, with the results of operational regional models and with the results of other similar numerical experiments (Blomgren et al., 2001; Kriezi, Broman, 2008; Soomere et al., 2008).

Figure 2 — Cumulative temperatures of heat waves in 2010

Quantity of years with heat waves and the quantity of the waves vary in time and space (Fig.1)

Estimated data of climate changes across the territory of the Republic of Belarus doesn’t run counter common world trends. For last decades we could find out well-defined trend to warming (fig.1). Average annual temperature for the period of 1989-2015 grew at 1.3 2C in comparison with climate norm (1961-1990). The hottest one was the year of 2015, average annual temperature of air exceed the normal one at 2.7 °C.

Figure 2. Distribution of weather hazards for some years (with division into types of hazards) in Belarus

Figure 3. Change of agroclimatic areas borders over Belarus: a) agroclimatic areas borders according to A.H.Shkljar (1973) b) agroclimatic areas borders according for the period 1989-2009 c) agroclimatic areas borders according for the period 1989-2015 Agroclimatic areas: | - Northern. II - Central. II] - Southern. IV - Agroclimatic areas: | - Northern, Il - Central, Ill - Southern, IV - New.

Figure 1. Precipitation [in mm] from 18.12.-25.12. 2014 in Schleswig-Holstein. (LKN/SH & LLUR, 2015, Data Source: HydroNet, offline calibration) In the following, two exemplary activities of the BSH in the topic 1 “Adapting the transport sector to climate change and extreme weather impacts” are described.

In the future, the dewatering can be further restricted by a rising mean sea level: For instance,, at this stage, it is only possible to dewater the Eider and the Kiel-Canal for 4,5 h during tide cycle, which is approximately 12.4 h. This window of dewatering is expected to decrease further in the future. Figure 2. Summary of the high water levels at the gauge stations in Schleswig-Holstein, December 2014. Stations with the highest levels ever measured are shown in purple . (from LKN/SH&LLUR, 2015)

Figure 1. Dependence of modeled significant wave height near the NPP upon wind speed for the most dangerous wind direction (310°). Wind duration was 24 h. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area is the north-west wind with the direction of 310°. Maximal significant wave height in the Gulf of Bothnia near NPP for that wind direction at a wind speed of 10 m s" is about 1.2-1.4 m after 24 hours of wind impact. Changing the wind speed for the determined most dangerous wind direction allowed assessing the values of the highest possible wind waves near the NPP (Fig. 1).

Figure 2. Ice thickness (m) distribution in the vicinity of NPP "Hanhikivi-1” on the 15" February for conditions of warm year. The red ellipse is the place of future NPP. beginning of April in 2014 (the warm year). The highest “background” temperature in the cold and warm year is achieved respectively in July and August. The thermal regime of the basin in the vicinity of the points of water intake and water discharge is almost identical. In general, the spatial variations of mean monthly temperature in the vicinity of the Peninsula Hanhikivi limited by radius of 2km are small, not exceeding 0.6 °C for the sea surface temperature (SST) and 1.2 °C for the temperature of the deep layer. The main difference between the cold 2010 and the warm 2014 is a longer winter period in 2014.

Figure 3. Ice thickness (m) distribution in the vicinity of NPP "Hanhikivi-1” on the 15" March for conditions of cold year.

decreases with increasing distance from the water intake point, so that SST deviations from the background in the 1500-2000m zone is 0.1-0.6 °C. Deviations of water temperature from background temperature in the bottom layer do not exceed 1.2 °C. Figure 4. The vertical structure of the temperature along the section from the discharge point to the north: (a) “background” scenario, and (b) “predictive” scenario. Cold year conditions of 04.04.2010. Scales of temperature on (a) and (b) are very different.

Figure 1. The spatial variation of simulated peak wind gust (m/s) at OOUTC on 8" of August, 2010 (A) and at 16 UTC on 29" of July, 2012 (B); simulated with different cumulus parameterization schemes and observed maximal wind speed at the selected sites for 00-03UTC of 8'" of August, 2010 (C) and for 12-15UTC of 29" of July, 2012 (D).

The so called signal (or gale warning) stations were established at the coasts of the southern Baltic Sea to submit gale warnings of the German Naval Observatory (Deutsche Seewarte) Hamburg to sailors (Fig. 1). Figure 1. Signal station in Leba (Poland). Optical signals are balloons, triangles, cylinders and flags (source: DWD, archive of the German Naval Observatory Hamburg).

References The position of these stations ranged at the German Bight from Borkum to Sylt and at the southern Baltic Sea from Aarosund (Denmark) to Parlanga (Lithuania). Fig. 2 shows the positions of all 164 signal stations in the period from 1877 to 1999. Figure 2. Positions of the 164 signal stations along the coasts of the North Sea and Baltic Sea (1877-1999).

The storm surge at the end of 1913 caused serious damage of landscape and infrastructure in the region Riigen/Usedom (von Storch et al. 2014). This storm surge went along with the highest water level in this region, which was topped only by the storm surges in 1872 and 1904 (Rosenhagen and Bork 2009). The number of available data from weather stations increases by a factor of nearly 10, using the newly digitized data of the signal stations (Fig. 3). Figure 3. Wind direction and wind force at 30" December 1913. Black: 8 stations from daily weather report of Kaiserliche Marine — Deutsche Seewarte 1913, Red: 74 newly digitized data of signal stations of Deutsche Seewarte (data: DWD).

Figure 1. The conditions that favors for severe flood formation in Nemunas River and their effect (in italic). * Department of Hydrology and climatology, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania (gintaras.valiuskevicius@gf.vu.It * Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service under the Ministry of Environment, Vilnius, Lithuania

Figure 2. Long term changes (cm) in maximum water level (black solid curve) and the frequency of the occurrence of the annual maximal water in different months (%) in Smalininkai gauge station from 1812 to 2015. (Numbers in legend correspond to serial number of months). First of all, the changes in the flood development parameters were determined. Fig. 2 shows the drastic changes in flood magnitude and flood temporal distribution in the second half of twentieth century. In nineteenth century the maximum water level in the lower reaches of the Nemunas River were mostly observed in April. In last decades of 20" century floods have become more frequent in early spring and winter (Fig. 2). Previous studies (Stonevicius et al 2014,; Kriaucitiniené et al., 2008) argue that such changes are related to climate change: its impact on seasonal precipitation amount, its intra-seasonal distribution and ratio between winter rain and snow. Over past 50 years the maximum water levels have significantly decreased in the lower reaches of the Nemunas River (Fig. 2).

Figure 1. Example of the detected storm areas (red), 15 min CG flash density (grayscale) and CG flashes (yellow).

Figure 2. Diurnal distribution of number of detected storm cells (blue) and mean cell area (red). The identified storms were divided to ones that had lightning activity within them and to ones without lightning activity to study the potential of obtained storm attributes for lightning risk indication. After the division 41 768 (33.9%) storms were labelled as lightning active. Similar division was made based on hail occurrence in the cells for hail risk prediction analysis. Hail was detected in 31 985 cells, which is 25.9% of the overall number of storm cells.

References Figure 3. CSI, FAR and POD as a function of classification (ET20 height) threshold as lightning activity classifier.

Figure 4. CSI, FAR and POD as a function of classification (cell maximum reflectivity) threshold as hail activity classifier

We examined the spatial and temporal structure of maximum spring discharges. Firstly we used variogram analysis for detecting changes in spatial distribution of the runoff patterns. Then trends were evaluated for different periods using the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) with significance set to 5%. Theil-Sen estimator has been used to determine the magnitude of the trends in spring peak flow and meteorological predictor variables. Figure 1. Locations of stream gauges (1) and meteorological stations (2)

Figure 2. Relative changes in spring flood peaks (%) ranked from most negative to most positive for different periods. Black bars denote significant trends (p<0.05)

Figure 3. Trends in maximum spring flood discharge (1946-2013). Solid triangles denote stations exhibiting a significant trend (p<0.05); open triangles and rectangles denote a non-significant trend.

Figure 1. The start of sediment resuspension captured using PIV camera (near Tallinn harbour, depth 7 m, 01.08.2013 05:19:34 UTC+3). During period 2009 - 2015 in several places of the Bay two underwater cameras (one equipped with lasers for particle image velocimetry - PIV), acoustic Doppler velocimeter with turbidity sensor and wave pressure buoy were used. The aim of the measurements was to experimentally evaluate sediment resuspension and transport. Measurements involved recording underwater videos (for detecting resuspension and to calculate near- bottom velocity profiles, Figure 1), acoustic measurements gave timeseries of single point velocity (for calibrating the PIV camera). Parallel measurements involved taking sediment and water samples for laboratory analyses (grain size distribution and water sediment concentration). Background data was taken from coastal weather stations (wind) and measured using pressure based wave buoy, which was used to calculate wave parameters.

The information of blown sand-dunes on the Curonian Spit gathered more than 180 years. The principal contribution studying processes of the Curonian spit belong to Gudelis and other geographers (1957, 1960). The detail analysis and morphodynamic evaluation of the foredunes was made by V. Minkevicius (1982), differentiation of eolian sand on the shore was studied by Zilinskas and Jarmalavicius (1996), deflation sites in the foredunes were mapped by V. Minkevicius, S. PaSkauskas and Zilinskas (1997). The age dating and measurements of an inner structure of parabolic dunes were recorded by geologists Bitinas and DamuSyté (1998). A contribution to the alteration study of shore banks was made by Povilanskas (2009). Fig. 1. Blown dunes areas in Curonian Spit: | — 1880 year, Il — 2014 year, 1-—cape Nagliai, 2 — cape Lybis, 3 — cape Lydumas, 4 — cape Arkliy, 5 — cape Bulvikis, 6 — cape GrobStas, 7 — cape Kaspaléja, 8 — cape Skilvyte.

We present a newly developed shallow water model for the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The model is validated by means of a comparison with hindcast simulations with observational data sets. The aim of the development is to provide and apply a modeling tool to model extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak. Projected sea level rise, changes in dynamical sea level in the North East Atlantic and tidal forcing in the northern North Sea are applied as boundary condition which allows to investigate their impact on the dynamics of regional sea level variability. Initial experiments focus on the impact of model resolution, resolution in the atmospheric forcing and the amount of details necessary in the bathymetry to faithfully model coastal sea level in the Baltic Sea and North Sea. Figure 1. Bathymetry of the 2 nautical mile setup BASSO2 of the shallow water model developed for this study.

In this study the Generalized model for simulating shoreline change - GENESIS (Hanson and Kraus, 1989) is applied in selected areas of the German Baltic Sea coast (see Figure 1). Figure 1. Coastal Sections of the Study Area and Locations of Time Series of Wave Parameter (white crosses). The average direction of the net sediment transport capacity is indicated by white arrows.

Figure 1. Summary of sediment transport mechanisms in the Baltic Sea (modified from Nitrouer and Wright 1994). Fluctations in coastline change of the Baltic Sea are mainly determined by the eustatic sea-level change, glacio- isostatic adjustment (GIA), and wind-driven long-shore sediment transport (Figure 1). For long-term (millennial) changes the relative sea-level (rsl) variation can be reconstructed from the sedimentary record by proxy-data interpretation.

Figure 2. Summary of processes affecting coastal morphogenesis and areas of influence at the Baltic Sea (elevation data ranging from 2000 m to -— 2000 m asl from TerrainBase http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds759.2/) tUniversity of Szczecin, Institute of Marine Sciences, Szczecin, Poland (jan.harff@univ.szczecin *School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Australia 3Technical University Dresden, Germany “Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany

The patterns of acceleration of annual mean sea-level during the 20th century in the Baltic Sea, as estimated with the deca- dal gliding trends, is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Acceleration of the annual mean sea-level in the Baltic Sea tide-gauges estimated in the period 1900-2012 by estimating the long- term trend in the decadal gliding trends of each record.

Figure 1. Spatial pattern of water level [m NN] on 1 November 2006 over the Baltic Sea based on reconstructed model data (CoasDat-TRIM) In November 1995 and 2006 severe storm surges occurrec along the German Baltic Sea coast. Water level heights o 1.8m above sea level were observed at tide gauges ir German coastal cities as e.g. Wismar and Flensburg. Simila high water levels are reproduced by the regional ocear model TRIM-NP (Kapitza 2008) which was driven by the high-resolution atmospheric hindcast simulation o7 CoastDat (Geyer 2014) as shown for November 2006 ir Figure 1 and Figure 2. The model-based reconstructior allows information at high spatial and temporal resolution.

Intra- and interdaily variations of water level (CoastDat-TRIM):euccd3 Figure 2: Intra- and interdaily variations of water level [m NN] for selected grid boxes representing locations co-located with Flensburg, Wismar and Libeck for October and November 2006 based on reconstructed model data (CoasDat-TRIM).

Figure 1 Daily sea level maxima distribution in Narva (1994 — 2000). Observed (red circles) and numerically simulated (black crosses) extremes are plotted against estimated return periods. Dashed line presents an approximation of Gumbel distribution. Statistical analysis of extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations with a duration of 15 to 125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. To avoid the impact of long-term level trends due to global sea-level rise and vertical tectonic shifts, we used detrended sea level data series. It is shown that the return values distribution for extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) is well approximated by the Gumbel distribution. The maximum values of extreme rises/ebbs of 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series - in Stockholm and Vyborg, 125 years — have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Application of the Weibull and Fréchet distributions to the approximate empiric return values distributions allowed to estimate the limits of ebbs and rises for Vyborg and the limit for ebbs for Stockholm. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the nature of the Baltic sea-level variability. Rises occurred more probable than ebbs. And as for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of the ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms.

Figure 1. The ___location of tide gauge stations in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. The black circles are tide gauges, used in this study; the white circles are other tide gauges, located in this region. The area of this study is the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. The sea level variability in this area is closely related to the sea level oscillations of the whole Baltic sea. The coherence of the sea level variability in different parts of the sea decreases with increasing of oscillation frequency [Medvedev, 2015]. In this study sea level spectrum was examined in the three frequency ranges: long-term variations (including secular and seasonal sea_ level changes), mesoscale (storm surges, tides, seiches of the whole sea) and high-frequency variations (the local seiches of the lagoons). The long-term sea level variations determined by the feature of the whole Baltic Sea and adjacent waters (the North Sea). The basic factor in the formation of the low-frequency sea level variability in the Baltic Sea is the barotropic water exchange through the Danish straits. The limited throughput of these straits plays the role of a natural low-pass filter for the sea level variations: high-frequency sea level variations from the North Sea are effectively damped, while the low-frequency signal can pass through into the Baltic Sea almost undisturbed (Kulikov et al., 2015). Mesoscale sea level variability is formed inside the Baltic Sea and their scale is comparable to the scale of the entire sea. High-frequency variations are the eigen oscillations of the lagoons and bays.

Figure 2. Long-term variations of annual mean sea level in Klaipeda, Pionerskiy and Wtadystawowo (dashed lines). Solid red line is trend of the full record for these stations (Klaipeda — 1898- 2011, Pionerskiy — 1926-2013, Wtadystawowo — 1951-2008), blue line is trend in time period 1977-2011 (Klaipeda),1977-2013 (Pionerskiy) and 1977-2008 (Wtadystawowo), green line is trend in time period 1898-1976 in Klaipeda. The main feature of the inter-decadal sea level variability in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea is positive linear trends. The sea level increase at the rate of 1.5 mm/year at Klaipeda and up to 1.8 mm/year at Pionerskiy in XX century was observed (Fig. 2). In recent decades (1977- 2013 years), the rate of the trend increases - up to 3.8 mm/year in Klaipeda and 2.2 mm/year in the Pionerskiy. Probably the main factor leading to a rise in sea level in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea at the end of XX — the beginning of XXI century is the rise in the global mean sea level.

conditions, also maxima for stormy seasons (from July of each year until June of the subsequent year) were employed.

Figure 3. Alongshore variation of the scale parameter of the Gumbel distribution from the northern tip of Latvia (left) over the Baltic Proper coast of the Western Estonian archipelago until the eastern Gulf of Finland (right). The colour code is the same as for Fig. 2. Several methods highlight a change in the sign of this parameter. For example, the values of shape parameter, evaluated using the Hydrognomon software and maximum likelihood method, vary from about —0.1 near the north- western coast of Latvia in the Baltic Proper up to about 0.05 in the eastern Gulf of Finland. The average values of this parameter are close to zero near Tallinn in the western Gulf of Finland. This feature signals that the Gumbel distribution gives adequate projections of extreme water levels for the vicinity of Tallinn while for most of the study area the use of Weibull or Frechet distribution is more appropriate.

Figure 2. Alongshore variation of the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution from the northern tip of Latvia (left) over the Baltic Proper coast of the Western Estonian archipelago until the eastern Gulf of Finland (right). Magenta, cyan, red and black: estimates using the method of moments; continuous lines: using biased (population) estimators, dashed lines: using unbiased (sample) estimators. Magenta: RCA model, annual maxima, cyan: RCO model, annual maxima, red: RCA model, stormy-season maxima, black: RCO model, stormy-season maxima. Thin blue and green: using maximum likelihood method. Blue dashed line: RCA model, annual maxima; green dashed line: RCO model, annual maxima. Thin blue/green dotted line: the same but based on stormy-season maxima. Wider blue/green dashed lines: the same but evaluated using the Hydrognomon software from the annual maxima. Wider blue/green dotted lines: the same but evaluated using the stormy-season maxima. Notice that a peak in coastal segment 77 corresponds to the islands of Pakri. reason for this dissimilarity is the different magnitude of correlations between subsequent values of the maxima.

Figure 1. Study area. Black lines with numbers - distance in kilometers, red lines - cross-levelling and GPR traverse profiles. Transverse profiles of the foredune were also taken from 3D elevation models developed on the basis of cartographic maps (1955 and 1981) where isohypses change with step from 0.5 to 1.0 m (Michailiukaité, 1967; Povilanskas et al., 2009). These are complemented by LIDAR elevation data from 2007. The changes in foredune height and the position of the foot of the dune were estimated based on topographic maps from 1910, 1955, 1981 and 2007, and LIDAR data.

GPR images and cross-shore levelling data show that the foredune retained its position in 1898/1899 - 2015 period over a large part of the spit, although there are episodic changes in its morphometric parameters (width, height, slope) (Fig. 2d). Figure 2. Relative sea-level change and the Curonian spit foredune development from 1899 to 2015. Relative sea level (a), foredune toe displacement during 1910-2007 (b), foredune topography (c) and GPR image (d) at Smiltyne.

Figure 1. Derivation of sea state conditions in dependence of the maximum storm surge water level at the ___location Rostock Warnemiinde

Figure 3. Yearly dose of global solar radiation and yearly average ozone values at Toravere from 1955-2013. When looking at 5-year moving average UV radiation level was fairly stable until 1970 having the same time high fluctuation in yearly doses. The average level started to decline at the beginning of the 1970s, reaching its minimum in 1979. In the 1980s UVB started to increase while UVA stayed low until 1990s and started to rise after that (Fig. 2). The lower level period is also characterized by smaller variability around the average, especially in UVA range. The increase is supported by extensive fluctuation of yearly doses having especially high peek values in 2002, 2005 and 2011.

Figure 2. Yearly doses of UVB and UVA radiation with a 5-year moving average from 1955 to 2013 at Téravere. Reconstructed values until 2003 and since 2004 measurements in combination with calculated values.

We build up a triangular mesh which has larger grid for the whole Baltic Sea and refine small grid at Oskarshamn harbor (as shown in Fig.1). The model is divided into 20 uniform sigma layers in the vertical. Open boundary is set at Skanor with observed data of water level, temperature and salinity in the water. Figure 1. Unstructured grid for the model. The left one shows the whole mesh with Baltic Sea. The middle and right ones scale down to Oskarshamn area and harbor.

Figure 3. Validation of water level at Oskarshamn from 2005-01- 01 to 2005-12-31 (unit: meters).

Figure 2. Validation of surface and bottom water temperature at water quality station BY15 from 2005-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (unit: Celsius degree). source of dye are added and released at the bottom of the harbor waterway. The concentration of dye source is set to be 1. Fig.4 shows the simulation results of dye distribution at the bottom layer for the first day and the 300th day, respectively. It can be inferred from the figure that the bottom release does not have great influence on the water area around after one year. However, to look into the influence of metal release in long term, more simulations need to be done in the future with longer time period. Hydrodynamic process at the sea may play an important role on the transport process at the long run, especially when the release is transported into the outer sea and meets strong currents.

Figure 4. Dye distribution at the bottom layer of Oskarshamn harbor. The left one is taken at the first day and the right one is the 300" day.

Figure 1. Measurement sites ___location in Poland: Lodz — urban, Annostaw — agricultural, Kopytkowo — wetlands.

Figure 2. Daily patterns of the energy balance components for seasons for wetlands, farmlands and urban sites in Poland based on multi- annual eddy-covariance measurements. Funding for this research was provided by the Polish National Science Centre under projects: UMO- 2011/01/B/ST10/07419, UMO-2011/01/B/ST10/07550, UMO-2015/17/B/ST10/02187 and The authors thank the authorities of the Biebrza National Park for allowing the continuous measurements in the area of the Park.

Figure 1: Mean monthly climatology (1989-2009) of discharge from the 6 largest Arctic rivers (upper panel) and into the Baltic Sea (lower panel). Observations comprise climatological observed discharge. Results show a large improvement in the simulated discharge from the large Arctic rivers and into the Baltic Sea (Figure 1). This is largely related to an improved snowmelt peak of runoff due to frozen soil in spring. For the Arctic rivers, a subsequent reduction of soil moisture (Figure 3) leads to a positive land atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes (Figure 2), which reduces the model’s wet biases in precipitation and evapotranspiration during the summer. This is noteworthy as soil moisture — atmosphere feedbacks have previously not been in the research focus over the high latitudes (Hagemann et al. 2016).

Figure 2: Mean monthly climatology (1989-2009) of precipitation over the 6 largest Arctic river catchments (upper panel) and over the Baltic Sea catchment (land only; lower panel). Observations comprise WFDEI precipitation (Weedon et al. 2014).

Figure 3: Mean monthly climatology (1989-2009) of relative root zone soil moisture over the 6 largest Arctic river catchments (upper panel) and over the Baltic Sea catchment (lower panel). The dashed blue line denotes the total root zone water content (liquid + frozen) for ECH6-PF.

The most important result of the Rodionov tests was the presence of a significant regime shift in case of many winter variables since the end of the 1980s. Winter (DJF) mean temperature has abruptly increased by 2.0-2.7 K at different stations (Figure 1). Generally, the trends and regime shifts at the coastal stations are a bit weaker than in inland stations. Figure 1. Time series of winter (DJF) mean air temperature (°C) in Tartu during 1951-2015, its regime shift since the winter 1988/89 (wide line) and linear trend (dashed line).

Regime shifts in winter temperature in Estonia have caused shifts in river runoff. Warmer winters are naturally related to earlier runoff maximum in spring. Usually it has been observed in April but during the last decades it has shifted to March. As a consequence, runoff in March has a positive shift and runoff in April has a negative shift coherently since 1989. The increase in March has been more than two times (Figure 3). Figure 3. Time series of river runoff (m°s”) in March at Orekiila station on Parnu River during 1951-2015, its regime shift since 1989 (wide line) and linear trend (dashed line).

Regime shifts in air temperature for the warm half-year were detected more than ten years later than for the cold half-year. Mean temperature in July had a jump by 2.0-2.4 K since 2001, in August the jump was since 2002 by 1.3-1.7 K and in September 1.5-1.7 K. Figure 2. Time series of snow cover duration in Tartu during 1951-2015, its regime shift since the winter 1988/1989 (wide line) and linear trend (dashed line).

regime shift than winter temperature (Figure 4). It means that westerly circulation has abruptly increased since 1989. Figure 4. Time series of NAO index in winter (DJF) at during 1951-2015, its regime shift since 1989 (wide line) and linear trend (dashed line).

Figure 1. Cumulative daily maximal and minimal temperatures exceeding the ETCCDI thresholds during 1920-2013 in Tartu, Tallinn and Parnu. To estimate the frequency and/or severity of abnormally cold and warm periods, cumulative maximal (minimal) temperatures over (below) these thresholds were calculated for different months. Figure 1 shows that cold waves are most severe or frequent in March in Tartu and Parnu and in January in Tallinn. In Parnu sums of daily minimums under the threshold show values lower than at other places, and this is valid for all months except December. The frequency/severity of the warmer than usual periods is at maximum in July (Tartu) or August (Tallinn and Parnu) and also in March (Tartu) or April (Tallinn and Parnu). From these three sites, Parnu is the most liable to heat waves in August and higher than usual temperatures in April. At all measurement sites in June, October and November the probability is the highest that the daily maximum does not exceed the threshold or exceeds it only to a small extent. The same can be said for daily minimum throughout the warm season.

Comparison of Figures 1 and 2 permits one to conclude that differences in the cold and warm anomalies between stations are caused mainly by differences in the number of the anomaly days. Figure 2. Average daily maximal and minimal temperature excess over or under the ETCCDI thresholds during 1920-2013 in Tartu, Tallinn and Parnu.

References Figure 3. The calendar days 10" and 90" percentiles calculated from different periods for Tallinn.

Figure 4 demonstrates that differences between cumulative temperature anomalies detected on the basis of different thresholds can be rather large. On the other hand, the average temperature excess for a single anomaly day is not affected significantly by the length of the period that is used for threshold calculations (Figure 5). This means that the large differences in excessive warm based on the threshold of the 30-year period from July to September can be ascribed to the larger number of abnormally warm days before 1961 and/or after 1990. On the other hand, the differences in cold anomaly in December and January show that before 1961 and/or after 1990 the number of the frost days is larger and/or their minimal temperatures lower. Figure 4. Cumulative daily maximal and minimal temperatures exceeding the thresholds calculated from different periods for Tallinn.

Figure 5. Average daily maximal and minimal temperature excess over or under the thresholds calculated for 1920-2013 and 1961- 1990 in Tallinn.

The graphic method of series of observations uniformity detection was used for the analysis of observations data. The radiation index of dryness and the annual sums of rainfall as climatic parameters were used for drying actions on the water levels regime impact assessment Figure 1. Connection of average annual levels with the radiations index of dryness.

The highest average precipitation total on five-years periods are noted in 1954-1960, 1966-1985. The highest values were noted during the same periods on the levels of marsh waters. The highest values of total radiation as dryness indicator were observed during the period from 1959 to 1967, 1991-1997, 2001-2010. Figure 2. Diagram of precipitation, radiation and swampland water level

Figure 3. The combined chronological diagram of average annual levels.

Figure 1. 30-year mean change of 2 m air temperature related to the period of 1970-2000 According to the calculations by the majority of models projected increase of air temperature is expected in Belarus at the end of 2100 for yearly mean (Fig. 1) and each season. However the values of change vary by season and depending on the scenario of greenhouse gases concentrations. The greatest means of increase of the annual and seasonal air temperature have been obtained for the RCP8.5. The ensemble mean is anticipated increase of the annual air temperature of 4.2 °C; but the results vary in a range of 1.0 °C to 5.3 °C.

Figure 2: 30-year mean change of precipitation (mm) related to the period of 1970-2000. For the precipitation as well as for the temperature the largest changes are anticipated for the most aggressive scenario RCP8.5. According to the projected data the annual sums of precipitation will probably increase up to 14% in a year (Fig. 2), for the winter season the increase is expected up to 26%, for spring 23%, for autumn 14%.

Figure 1. The reducing of duration of ice phenomenona period.

Due to the unstable and warm weather in winter maximum thickness of ice was less than the historical averages. Figure 2. The changing the maximum ice thickness over the whole period of observations on the Neman river.

Daily precipitation data from 7 station (Swinoujscie, Ustka, teba, Koszalin, Lebork, Elblag and Hel) were used to describe a long-term precipitation condition over the Polish costal area (Figure 1). The data for 1971-2010 period were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute. The sea level pressure (SLP) data for 4 terms per day were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1 (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/). The extreme precipitation events were discussed based on indices implemented by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) Karl et al. (1999), Peterson et al. (2001), Zhang and Yang (2004). Several indices were selected: annual number of heavy (210 mm) and very heavy (220mm) precipitation days (R10 and R20), simple daily intensity index (SDII), annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and annual number of days Figure 1. Mean monthly precipitation and statistical significance of seasonal precipitation trends over the Polish coast. There is no significant change in most of indices that define extreme precipitation events (Figure 2). A very slight increase in daily precipitation intensity and annual number of days exceeding gs" percentile was noticed in the costal area. The highest increase, but not substantial, was found for heavy precipitation days i.e. 0.1-0.2 day per year. A statistically significant decrease of consecutive wet days (Elblag and Hel) and very heavy precipitation days (Elblag) was observed.

Figure 3. Winter mean daily precipitation totals according to wind direction and circulation type. Figure 2. Trends for precipitation indices: R10 - days with precipitation >10mm; R20 - days with precipitation >20mm; SDII - simple daily intensity index; CWD - consecutive wet days; P95 annual number of days exceeded 95th percentile. Acknowledgements

For validation of the surface fluxes we use several observational and reanalysis datasets: NOCS (Berry 2009), CORE2 (Griffes 2009), OAFlux (Yu 2007), and ERA-Interim (Dee 2011). Figure 1. Coupling scheme of the model system

Figure 2. Mean annual cycle and annual means of the total surface heat flux averaged over the Baltic Sea surface for the period from 1989-2008. "Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg , Germany (thomas.raub@hzg.de) 2 GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany

Figure 3 shows a schematic the physical earth system of the Baltic Sea region and the interaction among them, the BALTEX box. The change in heat content H of the water and ice body of the Baltic Sea can be described as:

The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed intra-continental shallow sea, with mean depth of merely 54 m (Lepparanta and Myrberg, 2009), and is a brackish water basin surrounded by the land masses of Scandinavia, northern central Europe, and north-eastern Europe (Fig. 1). Figure 1. Baltic Sea DMREPA monitoring stations selected for the survey scheme in 1994-2009 and hydro meteorological coastal stations ___location.

Figure 2. SST groups according to the monitoring stations. After the MDS analysis the monitoring stations were grouped into 9 clusters and by 95% Bray-Curtis similarity index stations were divided into 4 groups (Fig. 2):

Figure 5. Correlation between mean AT and SWT at different depths for different time periods (7, 14, 21, 28, ..., 63 days) at the station No. 4. At the station No. 46 (Fig. 4) strong positive correlation between AT and SWT for the different time periods is observed until 20 m depth. Deeper up to 70 m correlation significantly decreases and it is equal to zero from 70 m to 75 m depth. Noticeable that deeper than 75 m negative correlation between AT and SWT appear. The same tendencies are for all time periods.

Correlation between AT and SWT at different depth were calculated. Here we present typical coastal and offshore areas represented stations and correlations at the stations No. 46 and No. 2. Figure 4. Correlation between mean AT and SWT at different depths for different time periods (7, 14, 21, 28, ..., 63 days) at the station No. 46.

A significant (p<0,01) strong positive correlation is observed between SST and AT for different time period. Strongest correlation was observed for 35 days AT time period before SST measurement, and it starts decrease after 42 days. Some different tendencies were observed in stations No. 4 (influenced by the water from Curonian Lagoon) and No. 46 (farthest monitoring station and belongs to the open BS Proper). Figure 3. Correlation between mean AT and mean SST for different time periods (7, 14, 21, 28, ..., 63 days).

Ce OS Fe eee ee ee eee a RS eee RY Similar situation were observed at the coastal area monitoring stations, for example at the station No. 2 (Fig. 6). At the sea surface water temperature changes is influenced of AT by shorter time than deeper layers (correlation between AT and SST strongest after 35 days and correlation between AT and SWT at 20m depth strongest after 49 days). Figure 6. Correlation between mean AT and SWT at different depths for different time periods (7, 14, 21, 28, ..., 63 days) at the station No. 2.

At the offshore stations we see (Fig. 7) strong positive correlation between AT and SWT for the different time periods is observed until 10 m depth, deeper to 40 m correlation significantly decrease. Correlation coefficient values vary from moderate (7 days) till very strong (63 days). This phenomenon is similar but not as strong as it was observed at the station No. 46. Figure 7. Correlation between mean AT and SWT at different depths for different time periods (7, 14, 21, 28, ..., 63 days) at the station No. 64.

In general, the decreasing of SLP, according to the trend line during the period 1948-2010, remains in the range 1.3 to 7.5 hPa (most of the values are between 2 and 5 hPa).

Even though there is 430 km between Tallinn and Vilnius and the fact that randomness plays a significant role in summer precipitation, the 30-year moving-window correlations show that the common period (1887-2009) under observation contains several decades in which there is an extremely strong correlation (r>0.7) between precipitation data from Estonia and Lithuania as well as between the water level data of the River Emajégi and the Nemunas. The decades_ containing strong correlations, however, are followed by periods in which the time series ‘lose their rhythm’, and correlations are thus very weak. Figure 1. The sums of vegetation period (MJJAS) precipitation (Pr) in Vilnius and the time series and regime shifts of the average water level (H) in and Smalininkai (the Nemunas). The regime shifts were calculate by using the STARS method with the settings: l=20, p=0.05, HWP=1.

Figure 2. The sums of vegetation period (MJJAS) precipitation (Pr) in Tartu and the time series and regime shifts of the average water level (H) in Tartu (the River Emajégi). The regime shifts were calculate by using the STARS method with the settings: |=20, p=0.05, HWP=1.

Figure 2. Percentage change in the maximum daily precipitation found in a 30-year period for land points in Scandinavia, as a function of global temperature change. It is seen that the very strong “6-degree simulation” has an increase, which is super- linear in global temperature change. From Christensen et al. (2015).

Figure 1. Percentage change in average winter precipitation for 30-year periods, as a function of global temperature change. The behaviour is approximately linear. From Christensen et al. (2015).

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of biological-chemical interactions in ECOSMO E2E.

Figure 1. Schematic figure of the components of the SCOBI model. The NEMO-Nordic-SCOBI model include in addition also the dynamics of Silicate (Kuznetsov and Eilola, 2015), not shown in figure.. The North Sea and Baltic Sea form one of the most complex oceanographic regions in the world and thus, demands for highly advanced modelling approaches. In a first approach to address the specific challenges of the region the ocean model NEMO-Nordic was developed to cover both the North Sea and Baltic Sea in one model setup (Hordoir et al., 2015). This model is able to reproduce the major salt inflows from the North Sea and Baltic Sea and has been applied in several physical oceanographic applications (Hordoir et al., 2015, Groger et al., 2015)). Now the model has been extended by a biogeochemical component, the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI). SCOBI (Marmefeldt et al. 1999; Eilola et al. 2009; Almroth-Rosell et al. 2011; 2015) handles biogeochemical processes in the sea as well as sediment nutrient dynamics including oxygen penetration depth and iron bound phosphorus (Fig. 1).

Figure 3: Simulated monthly average vertical distribution of diatom phytoplankton during august (left) and May (right) at 15.74 E; 55.39 N.. Figure 2: Simulated monthly average concentration of diatom phytoplankton for May 1997

bloom in stratified regions like e.g. along the Norwegian coastal current and in shallow water regions along the coasts. In autumn when vast areas in the open Sea are depleted by nutrients another bloom by nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria occurs. A maximum is reached in early autumn when low phosphate concentrations limit the growth of other autotrophic functional groups. At this time the peak production of diatom phytoplankton is deeper placed in the water column where nutrients are more abundant and light conditions still support phytoplankton growth.

Figure 1. Daily precipitation difference (mm/day) between coupled and atmosphere-only runs of CCLM (top row) and RCA4 (bottom row) for summer JJA 1986-2009 for the Northerly Circulation Type. Left column shows the difference of heavy precipitation (that exceeds 90th percentile). White color denotes missing values. Right column shows only the differences that are significant at the 95% confidence level (tested with a 2-sided Student t-test). However, when the heavy rainfall is considered (Fig. 1), the dry bias of uncoupled CCLM is reduced in the coupled experiment, especially for days of the Northerly Circulation Type. The difference between RCA4 and RCA4- NEMO over Central Europe does not show a clear pattern.

Figure 2. Seasonal 1000 hPa air temperature partial correlations between testing point and surrounding areas without AO influence for period 1979 — 2015. Shading levels represent correlation significance at confidence levels 68%, 95%, 99%, and 99.9%. Figure 1. Seasonal 1000 hPa air temperature correlations between testing point and surrounding areas for period 1979 — 2015. Shading levels represent correlation significance at confidence levels 68%, 95%, 99%, and 99.9%.

Siberia. In summer and autumn the AO influence is everywhere less than 0.15.

Figure 3. Lagged correlations between testing point winter (DJF) and surrounding areas surface pressure from preceding month (December, November and December) for period 1980 — 2015. Shading levels represent correlation significance at confidence levels 68%, 95%, 99%, and 99.9%.

Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences (WUELS), Poland (Leszek.Kuchar@gmail.com)

part of NEMO. LIM3 gives information about sea ice parameters, e.g. sea ice thickness, enthalpy, salinity, surface albedo and ice dynamics. It is assumed that the ice dynamics are in dynamical interaction with atmosphere and ocean (Vancoppenolle, 2008). Figure 1. Coupled atmosphere and ocean models

two runs are displayed in Figure 1. In February, when ice appeared over the Baltic Sea, temperature values significantly vary. In ice-free months, e.g. June, both models show almost identical results. Figure 2. Differences [in Kelvin] of 2m-temperatures between two coupled COSMO-CLM/NEMO model runs: sea-surface-temperature vs. sea-surface temperaturet+sea ice-cover.

Figure 1. North Sea region (map produced using Ocean Data View)

Figure 2. Sea surface temperature change in the North Sea and adjacent Atlantic waters. The trend for the period from 1983 to 2007 in K per decade is displayed. (NOSCCA chapter 2, figure provided by J. Huthnance) An obvious change in the North Sea is the increased sea surface temperature. The largest temperature rises are in the south-east, exceeding 1°C since the end of the ig" century.

Figure 3. Sea level rise in selected parts of the North Sea from 1900 to 2011 in mm/year. (NOSCCA chapter 3, figure from Wahl et al. 2013) Figure 4. Calanus ratio in the North Sea. Red indicates a dominance of C. helgolandicus and blue C. finmarchicus. (NOSCCA chapter 8, figure from Edwards et al. 2014)

Figure 1. Scheme for generating monthly climatologies from 2m air temperature in-situ observations. All atmospheric products are based on high quality controlled data by the Centre for Global Marine Meteorological Observations of DWD, all hydrographic data were interpolated and quality controlled prior to the processing. Correction methods have been implemented to assure best possible spatial and temporal coverage for each parameter. Figure 1 shows exemplarily the workflow for the 2m air temperature.

Both climatologies are provided for download on the ICDC website at http://icdc.zmaw.de/knsc.html (Fig. 2) and will be updated regularly regarding new observations and additional parameters. Variable reference periods can be extracted and either the data itself or their graphic displays can be stored. Figure 2. Screenshot from the ICDC Website.

Figure 1. 10-th percentile of daily minimum 2m temperature (°C) in different seasons from BaltAn65+ reanalysis together with the difference (°C) from EOBS.

Figure 2. Statistically significant linear trend (seasonal number of days/decade) of number of days with 2m minimum temperature below 10-th percentile of daily minimum 2m temperature.

Figure 1. Annual average significant wave height [m] in reference period 1981-2010. For assessment of climatic characteristics of waves 30 year long time slices are used. The reference period is from 1981 till 2010. This is compared to distant future period 2070- 2100. Highlights of study are summarised in this abstract.

Figure 2. Annual average direction of transport (arrows) and normalized intensity (colours) of wave energy in reference period 1981-2010. reference period is shown in Figure 3. Generally, slight increase (up to 4 cm) in climatic wave height may be expected with general increase in eastern part of the Baltic sea and decrease in its western part.

Figure 3. Absolute change in annual average significant wave height [m] between distant future 2070-2100 and reference period 1981-2010. Positive — increase of wave height.

Figure 1. Variations of the germination energy for SSR and WSR (A — statistically significant difference between seasons, a — statistically significant difference with control; test objects: Poacea: DG — Dactylis glomerata L., FL— Festulolium, PP — Phleum pretense L., FA— Festuca arundinacea L.; Fabacea: TP — Trifolium pretense L., LA— Lupinus angustifolius L.).

Figure 1. E. coli distribution and concertation model simulation in the Curonian Lagoon under different scenarios * Marine Research and Technology Centre, Faculty of Marine Technology and Natural Sciences, Klaipéda University, Lithuania (natalja.cerkasova@gmail.com) 2 ISMAR-CN R, Institute of Marine Sciences, Venice, Italy

Figure 1. Suggested target values (basing on reference state) representing the limit threshold of the GES with respect to Chlorophyll a, values have been integrated on scale of water bodies and subbasins (Schernewski et al., 2015) To derive the historical state an approach combing modeling and present days observations was introduced. This was only possible, since long term reconstructions of the weather conditions by Schenk et al. (2012) as well as historical nutrient loads by Gustafsson et al. (2012) were available. For the German catchment the estimated historical loads were derived on a very fine spatial scale by using the catchment model MONERIS (Hirt et al., 2014). The derived historical reference state was than the basis of target values representing the GES limit thresholds (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. Territorial change of settlements during 2005-2013, ha.

Figure 1. Average concentration of PM) ; particles originating from Baltic and North Sea shipping for the year of 2013 (a) and percent of total concentration of PM 5 concentration originating from Baltic and North Sea shipping.

4. Results Figure 1. Locations of the dumping sites (confirmed and unconfirmed) Approximately 60 thousand tons of chemical munitions were dumped in the Baltic Sea after World War II (the exact amount is not known and some sources estimate it as more than 200000 tons). The precise dumping areas are not known either, but based on the past investigations and information it is possible to select some main regions of dumping. All of them are showed in Figure 1.

Figure 2. Probability of the contamination calculated for two main areas: the Bornholm Deep (images on the left) and the Slupsk Furrow (images on the right). The results show situation 1 and 5 days after leakage.

Figure 3. Shipping contribution to PM air concentration and NOx deposition in the North Sea and Baltic Sea areas: a) PM2.5 in um m > b) PM2.5 in %, c) total deposition of N in mg m” , d) total deposition of N in % (Image adapted from Jonson et al. 2015). Shipping is the backbone of the global trade. According to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) more than 90% of the global trade is carried by sea and no other means of transport can replace shipping as intercontinental carrier of cargo. The Baltic Sea is one of the busiest shipping regions. Ships, on average, are generally considered as the most energy efficient mode of transport with low unit emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), but comparably high emissions of pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NO,), sulphur oxides (SO,) and particulate matter (PM). Figure 3 displays the shipping contribution to the air concentration of PM and to the NO, deposition.

Figure 2. The SHEBA partner institutions are located around the Baltic Sea, except CNRS/CINAM. Acronyms are assigned in the partner list beside and below. 4. Two selected examples of SHEBA topics

polluting substances originate from different activities onboard ships during operation. Also the total load of one substance may originate from several onboard activities. For example the total load of eutrophying nitrogen may originate from exhausts that are deposited to the seawater from air, nitrogen in discharged wash water and ballast water (see Figure 4). Figure 4. Operational discharges from ships on the marine environment. The different activities onboard give rise to pollutants, acidifying- and eutrophying substances that enter the marine environment. The ballast water and hull fouling also contain biological pollution as non-indigenous species may pose a risk to receiving ports‘ native flora and fauna. The terms black and grey water refer to sewage and wash water respectively. Bilge water originates from the engine room and is a mixture of condense water, oil, detergents and other cleaning agents. (Figure provided by Ida-Maja Hassellév)

Tree rings growth index projections for 21* century in mineral soil were developed using multiple regression. Projections were made for each study site and the entire territory of Lithuania using TRW as predictands and climatic data as predictors from observation period. The period 1951-1985 was used for calibration, the period 1986-2010 for verification. Figure. Location of dendrochronological sites and closest meteorological stations which data were used in the study.

There are several inherent properties of the Baltic Region that must always be accounted for in studies and management: natural and anthropogenic North-South and East-West gradients in the drainage basin and marine ecosystems, including limiting nutrients and productivity; compensatory potential of the interconnectivity between the Baltic Sea sub-basins; coastal-offshore interactions with its filtering and transforming capacity, depending on local morphometry; long nutrient residence times and high buffer capacity, determining slow response to the best efforts (Fig.1). Ignorant neglects or intentional disregards of these properties make management inefficient or even harmful. Figure 1. Dynamics of nitrogen (A) and phosphorus (B) pools (areas) and loads (curves) in the entire Baltic Sea.

Figure 3. Integrated assessment of the Baltic Sea eutrophication, combining 621 individual classifications (Andersen et a/., 2015). Objective societal demands and subjective fashion trends result in a blooming development of indicators of variable composition, combining together data and perceptions from variety of disciplines. The evident traps waylaying implementation of this approach include a) uncertainty and subjectivity in prescription of both reference conditions and acceptable deviations, b) inclusion of regionally and locally unimportant indicators for the sake of unification, and c) spatial and temporal inhomogeneity ignored by integrated assessments (e.g. Fig. 3).

Inorganic nitrogen removal due to denitrification and release of accumulated phosphate from the anoxic bottoms result in the Redfield excess of inorganic phosphorus that forces dinitrogen into biotic cycling via nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria, thus increasing primary production, sedimentation and decomposition of organic matter, which, in turn, leads to further expansion of hypoxic zone with increased denitrification and DIP release (Fig. 2). Shrinking of hypoxic zone after sporadic Major Baltic Inflows of saline oxygen-replete waters causes opposite changes in the N and P pools, but nowadays the improved oxygen conditions do not last long. Besides of such harmful cyanobacteria bloom effects as recreational deterioration and toxicity, this vicious circle (Vahtera et a/., 2007) counteracts nitrogen load reductions by nitrogen fixation and damages cod reproduction by expanding hypoxia. Figure 2. Dynamics of hypoxic area (HA), DIN:DIP ratio computed from 3D DIN and DIP fields, and total area of cyanobacterial accumulations (TCA, Kahru & Elmgren, 2014) in the Baltic Proper.

..then politics beats science. A few recent Baltic examples include: demand for simultaneous reduction of both N and P land loads in BSAP (but see Fig. 3); HELCOM’s intention to achieve a Good Environmental Status for the Baltic Sea by 2020/21 (Baker et a/., 2010, but see Fig. 4 for time scales); disregard of nutrient exchange with the Baltic Sea and Skagerrak in the Danish Action Plans for the Aquatic Environment that delayed improvement in open waters of the Danish Straits and Kattegat, comparing to expectations. Figure 4. Differences in primary production (A, g C m”’yr’) and nitrogen fixation (B, 10° t N yr’) in the Baltic Sea sub-basins between scenarios with both N and P reductions (#0) and only P reductions (#1), amount of reduction corresponds to BSAP. Comparing to case #0, in case #1 primary production is slightly higher (140 instead of 130 g C m” yr’) but nitrogen fixation is substantially less (62 instead of 113 10°t N yr’).

An example of its application is shown in Figures 1-2. Figure 1 shows the distribution of the climate distance function between the contemporary climate in Latvia and contemporary climate elsewhere in Europe. Figure 2 shows the distribution of the climate distance function between the future climate of Latvia and contemporary climate elsewhere in Europe; this may help in a perception of the expectations of the climate change. Figure 1. Climate distance function between contemporary climate (1961-1990) in Latvia and elsewhere.

Let us use arbitrary (see discussion in Chapter 5) set of (___location/time slice) points. We propose to use hierarchical clustering of points using the distance between points as defined by Eq. (1). Further we propose the complete linkage clustering method which assumes that the distance between two clusters equals to the maximum distance between elements of these clusters. An example of the dendrogram for 20 meteorological observation stations of Latvia, 1981-2010, is shown in Figure 3. Data is courtesy of Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Center (LEGMC). Figure 3. Sample dendrogram — meteorological observation stations of Latvia, 1981-2010.

In both Figures we use ERA INTERIM dataset for contemporary climate. For the future climate we use median of ENSEMBLES model ensemble Van der Linden & Mitchell (2009), bias-corrected according to Sennikovs & Bethers (2009). Figure 2. Climate distance function between future climate (2071-2100) in Latvia and contemporary climate (1961-1990) elsewhere.

Let us demonstrate one clustering case study within this abstract. Let us consider 40 observation stations and perform a cluster analysis for contemporary climate 1981- 2010 (data by LEGMC), see Figure 4. Further, let us use the same Spatial locations and perform a cluster analysis for far future 2071-2100, see Figure 5; for T and p data series we use median of ENSEMBLES model ensemble Van der Linden & Mitchell (2009), bias-corrected according to Sennikovs & Bethers (2009). Seven clusters are distinguished in both cases. The inter-cluster distances Aj are summarised in Tables 1-2. Figure 4. Results of cluster analysis for LV observation stations. Contemporary climate 1981-2010.

zones, cluster 7; (4) dry climate of central lowland and coast of Gulf of Riga, cluster 5; (5) moderate continental climate, cluster 2; (6) distinct continental climate of eastern Latvia, cluster 3; (7) uplands climate for stations above 200 m ASL, cluster 1. Figure 5. Results of cluster analysis for LV observation stations. Future climate 2071-2100.

In the end of 21* century air temperature rise will lead to disappearing of snow in November, March and April. In December-February the projected changes of snowfall according to RPC2.6 scenario will be much smaller than under RPC8.5 scenario. Figure 1. Precipitation composition in Neman basin in 1981-2000 (blue) and projections for 2081-2100 according to RCP2.6 (yellow) and RCP8.5 (red) scenarios. Dark colors represents liquid precipitation, light colors - snow.

Figure 2. Snowfall amount in analyzed river catchments according to RCP 2.6 (1) and RCP 8.5 (2) climate change scenarios and Neman basin mean snowfall amount according to RCP 2.6 (3) and RCP 8.5 (4) scenarios.

The time of maximum snow water equivalent will shift towards the beginning of cold season (figure 3b). Figure 3. Maximum monthly snow water equivalent (a) and its average time represented in months from October (b) in analyzed river catchments. Results for individual catchments according to RCP 2.6 (1) and RCP 8.5 (2) and mean based on catchment data according to RCP 2.6 (3) RCP 8.5 (4) scenarios).

effect on transit migrants. Thus, the environmental impact of construction of the Bronka port corresponds to the project predictions, and is limited in space and time. Figure 1. The birds-eye view on the avant-port Bronka in the Neva Bay of the Gulf of Finland

Table 1: Frequency (%) of vertical structures of flow: bidirectional estuarine (EC) and reversed estuarine (REC) flow, unidirectional inflow (UIN) and outflow (UOUT). Within the theories of wind-forced motions of elongated basins (e.g. Winant, 2004), downwind flows develop on the coastal shoals and on the thin surface Ekman layer of the basin interior, but compensating upwind flows take place in the deeper parts of the basins because the sea level is piled up in the downwind end of the basin. Such mechanisms have been confirmed by the analysis of the results from numerical models (Krauss and Brugge, 1991; Elken et al., 2003), but good observational evidence has been missing due to the lack of sufficient amount of observations. We have found observational evidence that deep along-basin current velocities depend on the wind velocity with correlations above 0.7: maximum deep inflows occur in winter during north-easterly winds and in summer during easterly winds, and outflows during the winds from reverse direction. This relation is in agreement with the results of calculations (not shown) of longitudinal (along the channel axis) wind forced flows, using the analytical model by Winant (2004). For the estuarine flow reversal in real conditions, W or SW wind speed must be stronger from some critical value that depends on the stratification, including the density difference between the Northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland. Rough guidance to the critical value of wind speed may obtained by analysis of Wedderburn number. unidirectional outflow (UOUT, u, < 0, u, < 0). Results of analysis presented in Table 1 show that during the summer observation period in 2012 when the mean zonal wind stress was 0.028 N m”, the prevailing flow type at P22 was bidirectional flow (71% of time) where EC took place in 27% and REC in 44% of time, UIN and UOUT took place in 14% and 15% of time respectively. During another summer of 2010 when mean zonal wind stress was lower (0.011 N m”), observations at P9 revealed also dominating bidirectional flows, but EC prevailed over REC (43% vs 17%). For winter/spring periods the unidirectional and two- directional flows were roughly in balance. EC took place in about 20% and REC in about 30% of time.

Table 1. Volume of inflowing saline water and amount of salt transported into the Baltic by the particular events of the barotropic inflow series.

Table 1. Scenarios investigated for the Sulphur content of marine fuels and for the use of wet scrubbers (from Turner et al., 2016). *SECA regulations changed from 1% to 0.1% in January 2015 ** It is assumed that 96% of the Sulphur is taken up in the scrubber and that the scrubber water is discharged untreated

Table 1. Average values of 6 °C decrease on_ incubation (A°C = 8’Cy - 6'°C)), initial (To) and final (T;) allochtonous organic matter contribution to bulk organic matter in subregions.

Table 1. IC50 values caused by nitrite concentrations and conditions for batch tests according to various authors. Aim of the current research was to find a link between continuous reactor biomass spiking with high nitrite concentrations and its tolerance to extremely high nitrite concentrations. The effects of high nitrite concentrations on the TNRR and on the microbial composition were studied to acquire a better understanding of the possible biomass adaption to different substrate concentrations.

Table 1. Mean predicted changes in vegetation period length and accumulated warmth by two scenarios and target periods, compared to 1971-2000. Average arrival dates of cereal growth stages will presumably also shift earlier due to earlier sowing. However, the number of days from sowing to heading needed to achieve necessary temperature sum will not shorten in two considered locations, rather become few days longer on average, as a result of earlier sowing.

Table 2. Effect of selected temperature variables on spring cereal yields. * indicates that the effect is significant (at least p<0.05). As can be concluded, cereals suffer significantly from periods with high temperatures that occur around heading Under present climatic conditions, this period occurs ir June-July, depending on year and ___location. Probability o' high daily mean temperatures will increase with climate The effect of elevated temperatures on spring cereal yields depends on the timing of the event. In the present climatic conditions, cool start of season increased yields: the yield was reduced by increases in temperatures during the 3 and 4 weeks after sowing (Table 2). High temperatures (daily mean temperatures 221 and 22 °C) during a period of 1 week before and 2 weeks after heading reduced yields significantly. The effect was increased with increasing temperature. Also at a later phase, during the period from heading to yellow ripeness, increase in temperatures (higher temperature sum for the period, but especially warmth accumulation rate per day) causes yield decrease.

Table 3. Probability of high daily mean temperatuures during 2 weeks before to 1 week after heading in 1965-2013 and as prognosed for the 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 in two locations by RCP 8.5. 4. Discussion General warming will lead to quite remarkable extension of our presently too short growing season. In addition to the season lengthening, more warmth will accumulate and be available for plant growth. If the climate will warm according to model projections, cultivation of new species/varieties becomes possible and probable in Estonia.

Table 1. The severe water level characteristics in the tributary Atmata (Rusné gauge station) in the Nemunas River Delta in different climatic periods during 1926-2015.

Table 1. The speed capes and dune movement in different time on western lagoon shore. Subsequent investigation (1998 -— 2015) shown that intensive sand-drifts are on the opened bleak top of main dune ridge: Juodkranté — Pervalka segment and the south of the Nida. The most intensity sand-drift (deflation) are in the surface depressions. All depressions have been grouped according to morphologic types: elliptical, corridors, wastes, composite, steep slopes and furrows in the blown-out remnants area. There were mapped more than 50 those structures. Deflation depressions are mostly displaced in the western part of the main dune ridge and situated northwards from the Lydumas cape.

Table 1. Surface energy balance over the Baltic Sea (excluding Kattegat) for the period 1989-2008. Shown are the annual means and the standard deviation of the total flux, the net solar radiation (SWR), the net thermal radiation (LWR), the sensible heat flux (SHF), and the latent heat flux (LHF). The fluxes are defined as positive downwards in W/m2.

Table 2. Mean heat change and heat fluxes and the inter-annual variability to the Baltic Sea water and ice body for the period from 1989-2008 normalized by the surface area in W/m2. The heat content changes by 0.9 W/m2 over the simulation period with an inter-annual variability of 6.1 W/m2. The latter is mainly caused by the surface fluxes. However, they do not fully close the heat budget. Even with taking the remaining fluxes into account, we cannot close it, leaving a remainder of about +0.5 W/m2. A potential cause for this imbalance could be that the sensible heat of the sea ice is not treated conservatively or the neglect of the fluxes associated with sea ice flow through the Danish straits.

Table 1. Coordinates of the monitoring stations, maximum depth and number of measurements.

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Shoreline change rate estimation and its forecast: remote sensing, geographical information system and statistics-based approach

by Dr-Avinash Kumar

2013

""The present study indicates that coastal geomorphology is controlled by the natural processes and anthropogenic activities. The changes in shoreline position of Udupi coast, western India, are investigated for a period of 98 years using... more

1994). Basic intrusives like dolerites and gabbros and acidic intrusives like pegmatite and quartz veins and pink porphyritic granites are also found. Coastal sand is found parallel to the coastline and amphibolites along the river banks. The recent alluvium and colluvial deposits occur along the riverbanks and seacoast. The exposures of crys- talline rocks are found as isolated hills along the shore and in the offshore. Black clayey marine sediments with a thickness of 0.30 to >1.00 m occur as lenses along the coast. Lateritic-capped pediplains are an important phys- iographic feature of the study area. The district is covered

Fig. 2 Showing the periodical shorelines changes (1910-1967, 1967-1987, 1987-1992, 1992-1997, 1997-2001, 2001-2005 and 2005-2008) in all the littoral cells. The net change in the last 98 years is also shown

Fig. 3. Showing the shoreline change rate values calculated using EPR, AOR and LR methods for all the four littoral cells taking 1910 shoreline position as a base

models validate accurately at transects Tr1.7, Tr1.8, Trl.11, and Tr1.14—Tr1.19. In the case of Tr.12, the pre- dicted shoreline models indicate two different trends for next 12- and 22-year periods. The predicted values obtained from EPR and LR models, EPR values show less compared to that of LR value. In total, about 60 % tran- sects of this cell have been predicted to be subjected to recession (Table 2). next 12- and 22-year periods. The predicted values

In LC-II, the future shoreline positions show recession (Tr3.1-Tr3.2, Tr3.5, Tr3.7—Tr3.14, Tr3.17-Tr3.18, Tr3.22— Tr3.23, Tr3.25, Tr3.29 and Tr3.32) and progradation (Tr3.3-Tr3.4, Tr3.16, Tr3.21, Tr3.24, Tr3.26, Tr3.30-

mouth (Tr1.22); e tourist beach in Malpe (Tr2.2); Ipomoea—a sand binder is seen at the backshore; f severely eroding Kemmannu beach (Tr2.14) Fig. 6 a The beach near Uliyargoli (Tr1.1) is protected by seawall; b partially collapsed seawall near Uliyargoli; e dumped boulders to protect the beach from recession near Udyavara Padukere (Tr1.16); d breakwater construction on southern side of the Udyavara river The estimated trends are consistent with the global estimates reported in the third assessment report (TAR) of wave action on the beach. This would be reflected in a shoreline recession which will be larger on gentler slopes. Considerable interannual and interdecadal sea-level chan- ges at a coast are forced primarily by large-scale winds (Clarke and Liu 1994; Shankar and Shetye 2001; Han and Webster 2002), large changes in salinity (Shankar and Shetye 1999; Shankar and Shetye 2001) as well as ‘steric oscillations’, which are due to the changes in specific volume (Shankar 2000). Bruun (1962) has developed a model which estimates the shoreline recession with respect to rise in sea level. If this model is considered for Karna- taka coast, it suggests every millimetre rise of sea-level

from the shoreline; Tr3.6); d severely eroding Maravanthe beach protected by seawalls (Tr4.20) Fig. 7 a A small inlet and seawalls are observed near Kumbhashi (Tr3.21); b organic shells extraction from the beach near Bijadi (Tr3.23); ¢ sand dune in the hinterland near Saligrama (1 km away IPCC (Church et al. 2001), suggesting that the sea-level trends in the north Indian Ocean are comparable to global estimates. Over the globe, based on tide-gauge data, Douglas (2001), Church et al. (2004) and Holgate and Woodworth (2004) used reconstruction methods to determine the spatial pattern of global SLR of 1.8-2.0 mm/year during 1950-2000. These results were used to describe the regional sea-level changes and sug- gest values close to 2.0 mm/year in the north Indian Ocean, except the northeastern part of the Bay of Bengal, where values of >4 mm/year are found. The SLR varia- tions suggest that the retreat along studied section may be gradually influencing and responsible for erosion. Hence, the Udupi coast is vulnerable to accelerated SLR and the rate of erosion of this coast during 2000-2006 was 0.6018 km?/year compared to the rate of accretion and around 46 km of the coastline is under critical erosion (Dwarakish et al. 2009). side and advances landward in the down art side. Erosion/accretion is a cyclic phenomenon, which is nor- mal along this coast. Beaches along the barrier spit are subjected to erosion due to migration of rivers mouth. Construction of breakwaters in 1980s on either side of Udyavara river mouth (LC-I and -II) results in significant growth of the southern spit. The change in beach con- figuration away from this estuarine mouth is influenced by St. Mary’s group of islands situated in the offshore. Major shift of Sita-Swarna rivers mouth (LC-II and -II]) toward south by ~2.30 km is recorded for the last 98 years, due to southerly drift which is predominating over northerly drift and coastal waves are stronger than river flow. Width of K—C-H rivers mouth (LC-IV) was ~600m during 1910 has been reduced to ~380m during 2008 which has been attributed to the construction of coastal engineering structures (Gangolli harbour, breakwaters and seawalls). Uliyargoli, Padukere, Vad- abandeswara, Tonse, Kemmannu Hude, Parampalli and Kundapur Kodi are found as eroding beaches in the study area, whereas Kodi Bengre, Gangolli, Maravanthe bea- ches are highly vulnerable for erosion (Figs. 6, 7). A cumulative length of ~7km seawalls has been con- Erosion/accretion is a cyclic phenomenon, which is nor-

Table 1 Details of the satellite data products, date and time of acquisition, tidal conditions and the amount of shoreline shift SL sea level, HT high tide, LC littoral cell * Beach slope in degrees

Table 2 continued Negative sign indicates erosion

N is total number of transects considered for individual periods; negative sign indicates erosion

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(2017) Fluvial Landscapes in the Roman World (Journal of Roman Archaeology Supplement 104)

by Tyler Franconi and

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Geomorphological Changes along the Nile Delta Coastline between 1945 and 2015 Detected Using Satellite Remote Sensing and GIS

by Magdy Torab and

Darwish, K.; Smith, S.E.; Torab, M.; Monsef, H., and Hussein, O., 0000. Geomorphological changes along the Nile Delta coastline between 1945 and 2015 detected using satellite remote sensing and GIS. Journal of Coastal Research, 00(0),... more

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Geomorphic variability in the coastal zone

by Joann Mossa

1992

Figure 2. Distinctive zones of wave action and morphologic characteristics of the littoral zone still retain most of their energy, and the wave period becomes longer. Two sets of long-period waves approaching the coast with slightly differing wavelengths may produce a resultant pattern, known as surf beat, that displays a periodic variation in height. Waves change character as they enter progres- sively shallower water, causing a variety of wave and breaker types, as well as several distinctive zones of wave action (Figure 2).

Figure 3. Wave refraction surrounding headlands and bays and over submarine morphologic features As waves continue to enter shallower water depths, they may become un- Stable and break, becoming substantially distorted in shape from their deepwater form. Breaking waves follow a continuum that has been classified by Galvin (1968) into spilling, plunging, collapsing, and surging breakers. In general, steep deepwater waves and onshore winds approaching gentle slopes produce spilling breakers, where water spills down the steepened shoreward wave face (Figure 4). Plunging breakers are associated with long, low deep- water swells and intermediate slopes. Flatter waves breaking on a steeply sloping shore surge or collapse, with the base of the wave surging forward and the cres. >llapsing or disappearing.

3 4. Appearance and classification of breaking waves according to Galvin (1968) combined with beach slope and wave height to water depth ratio as discussed by Street and Camfield (1966) (adapted from Carter 1988)

jure 5. Macroscale morphology of microtidal, mesotidal, and macrotidal coastlines (modified from Hayes 1980)

igure 7. Some aspects of geomorphic variability attributable to lithology, structure, and mass movement along semi-consolidated and consolidated coasts in cross section

In addition to contributing sediment particles, several organisms are capable of building reefs on the sea floor. Corals are the best known ree: builders and usually produce the largest reef structures. However, variot types of worms, mollusks, bryozoa, and coralline algae are also capable ¢ reef construction. Figure 9. Outcrops of Pleistocene coquina rock of the Anastasia Formation on a beach in East Florida. Erosion of such rocks contributes sediment particles to the beach

Figure 10. Conditions for erosion, transportation, and deposition of particles in water according to Hjulstrom (1935) In a fluid, the entrainment, transport, and deposition of sediment particles are often defined as functions of sediment diameter and mean fluid velocity. In flowing water, the Hjulstrom curve indicates that the threshold velocity is at a minimum for medium size quartz sand particles, and that higher velocities are necessary to entrain both finer and coarser sediments (Figure 10), for reasons to be discussed shortly. Greater velocities are required to transport materials of similar size in wind as opposed to water (Bagnold 1941). Velocity alone does not control the capacity of a fluid to entrain particles. Other characteristics include the viscosity of the fluid, the nature of the fluid motion, the character and shape of the bed materials, and the impact of saltating or bouncing grains.

Figure 14. Surface and subsurface environments and variations of barrier islands, strand plain coasts, and tidal flats

17. A variety of cliff morphologies in cross section. Plunging cliff is steeply sloping and possibly shows a notch. Cliff with shore platform may develop from increased notch development and mass movement of overlying material. Cliff base beach may develop from cliff with shore platform if sediment supply exceeds transport of materials

Figure 25. Deepwater wave hindcasting curves (from Bretschneider 1959)

Coastal dunes (Figure 18) occur where there is a sufficient sediment source, onshore winds of sufficient velocity to transport the available material, and a flat or low-relief space inland of the coastline to accommodate dune formation. Sources of dune material are usually the dry portion of sandy beaches. The wider the beach, the greater the surface area exposed to wind transport and, consequently, the greater the volume of material available to form dunes. Flat, dissipative shorelines, where large volumes of sand are stored subaerially at low water, are highly suited for foredune development (Short and Hesp 1982). Chapter 3 Variable Coastal Features

Figure 19. Rhizomes help hold sand in place and spread the colonization of dune grasses. Eastern Alabama near Florida/Alabama state line (March 1991)

igure 20. A three-dimensional view of some features commonly associated with a barrier island system, including the back barrier, overwash fans, and lagoons

22. Linear shoals on the New Jersey coast. Note the abundance of shoreface- connected shoals throughout and the isolated shoals which are most abundant off the Brigantine area (from Meisburger and Williams 1982)

Jre 23. Cape-associated shoals off Canaveral Peninsula, a large cuspate foreland on the Florida Atlantic coast. Note shoreface-connected linear shoals north of False Cape (from Field and Duane 1974)

Figure 30. Yearly mean sea level changes at Galveston, T , from 1908-1986. Subsidence of the land around Galveston may be caused by groundwater withdrawal and compaction

Figure 31. Late Quarternary sea level curves inferred from radiocarbon-dated samples along the U.S. coastlines (modified from Dillor: and Oldale 1978)

Morphologic indicators of littoral drift along natural and modified shorelines. Natural features such as rock headlands show accretion on the updrift side and erosion on the downdrift side (A), tidal inlets and spits show extension in a downdrift direction (B-C), and beach ridge headlands show surcessive growth on the updrift end influenced by the development of coastal cells, which form shoreline irregularities (D). Coastal engineering structures including groin fields, jetties, seawalls, attached breakwaters, and detached breakwaters (E-l) generally show accumulation of sediment on the updrift side, and reduced sediment supply on the downdrift side

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Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: Sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

by Christophe Morhange

A review of 917 relative sea-level (RSL) data-points has resulted in the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and... more

Fig. 1. Spatial extent of the study area. Numbered rectangles denote the ___location of sea-level data for this paper, grouped into regions as explained in the text. GS is Gibraltar Strait, CO is Corsica, SA is Sardinia, SI is Sicily.

Fig. 2. Tectonic framework of the western Mediterranean. Faults are modified after Faccenna et al. (2014). Squares indicate the average elevation of MIS 5e shorelines (data from Ferranti et al. (2006); Pedoja et al. (2014)). Dots denote the ongoing GPS-derived vertical movements along the Mediterranean coast (data from Serpelloni et al. (2013)). CO, Corsica; SA, Sardinia; SI, Sicily. Al, Alicante; Va, Gulf of Valencia; Ed, Ebro Delta; LI, Llobregat Delta; Cc, Cap Creus; Ca, Cap d'Agde; Rh, Rhone Delta; Pc, Port Cros; Fj, Frejus; Ge, Genova; Sz, La Spezia; Vs, Versilia plain; Ar, Arno river; Pn, Pianosa Island; Cv, Civitavecchia, CV; Ti, Tiber Delta; Fo, Fondi plain; P, Pontine Archipelago; Vp, Volturno plain; Na, Naples volcanic district; Sp; Sele plain; Cv, Capo Vaticano; Ms, Messina Strait; Mt, Marettimo Island; Pl, Capo Gallo; Ma, Marsala sound; Ct, Catania; Sy, Syracuse; Mf, Monfalcone; VI, Venice lagoon; Pd, Po Delta; Rp, Romagna coastal plain; Ps, Pescara; Sg, Sangro plain; Gp, Gargano promontory; Md, Gulf of Manfredonia.

Fig. 3. Schematic diagram of the indicative meaning and theoretical examples of its application in reconstructing RSL from radiocarbon-dated fixed biological samples (A), lagoonal and marsh samples (B) and beachrocks samples (C). RWLis the Reference Water Level, ejr is the indicative range, e, represents the sum of the error associated with sea level research, HMC is High Magnesium Calcite; MSL is the modern Mean Sea Level.

Fig. 4. Location of the example site in Burmarrad, Malta. Molluscan and ostracod assemblages of the core BM1 indicate that the dated charcoal was deposited in semi-enclosed lagoor facies. The sample, collected at — 10.1 MSL yielded a radiocarbon age of 6500 + 30 years (7326-7471 ka BP 20). After correction for the indicative range, we produced an index poin placing the RSL at — 9.6 + 0.55 (details in Section 3.3).

Fig. 5. A) Stacked histogram of intercalated, basal, fixed biological, beachrocks and archaeological index points. B) Total plots of the 469 index points used for the RSL reconstructions in the 22 regions. Index points are divided into intercalated, basal, fixed biological, beachrocks and archeological indicators.

Fig. 6. RSL reconstructions in central Spain (#1), northern Spain (#2) and central France (#3). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. Dimensions of boxes and lines for each point based on 2s elevation and age errors. The relative sea-level data is compared to a prediction (red line with minimum and maximum errors) from the SELEN model (see Section 4). Al, Alicante; Va, Valencia. Ed, Ebro Delta; Cu, Cubelles; Ll, Llobregat Delta; Em, Empuries. Lg, Languedoc lagoons; Rh, Rhone Delta, Eb, Etang de Berre, Ma, Marseille; Lc, La Ciotat; Pc, Port Cros.

Fig. 7. RSL reconstructions in western Ligurian Sea (#4), eastern Ligurian Sea (#5), northern Corsica and Pianosa (#6) and southern Corsica and northern Sardinia (#7). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. The dimensions of boxes and lines for each point are based on 2s elevation and age errors. The relative sea-level data is compared to a prediction (red line with minimum and maximum errors) from the SELEN model (see Section 4). Red dots denote the approximate ___location of the cluster of RSL data-points. Fj, Frejus; Ni, Nice coastal plain; Sv, Savona; Ge, Genova. Sp, La Spezia; Vs, Versilia coastal plain, Pi, Pisa; Ar, Arno coastal plain. Cc, Cap Corse; Sc, Scandola; Pn, Pianosa. VI, Gulf of Valinco; Bs, Bonifacio Strait; Ol, Olbia; Cl, Cala Liberotto, Ca, Capo Caccia.

Fig. 8. RSL reconstructions in southwestern Sardinia (#8), north-central Latium (#9), Gulf of Gaeta (#10) and Salerno Bay (#11). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to the present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. Dimensions of boxes and lines for each point based on 2s elevation and age errors. The relative sea-level data are compared to a prediction (red line with minimum and maximum errors) from the SELEN model (see Section 4). Red dots represent the approximate ___location of RSL data-points. Th, Tharros, Mi, Is Mistras, Or, Gulf of Oristano, Pi, Piscinni Bay and Malfatano Cape; St, Sant’Antioco; Ca, Cagliari; No, Nora. Cv, Civitavecchia; Sm, Santa Marinella, Ti, Tiber Delta. Fo, Fondi coastal plain; Fr, Formia; Po, Pontine Archipelago; Vp, Volturno coastal plain. Sp, Sele coastal plain.

Fig. 9. RSL reconstructions in northwestern Sicily (#12), mid-eastern Sicily (#13), southeastern Sicily (#14) and southern Tunisia (#15). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. Dimensions of boxes and lines for each point based on 2s elevation and age errors. The relative sea level data is compared to a prediction (red line with minimum and maximum errors) from the SELEN model (see Section 4). Red dots denote the ___location of RSL data-points. Mt, Marettimo; Ma, Marsala sound; Sv, Cape San Vito; PI, Palermo. Ca, Catania coastal plain; Au, Augusta; Sy, Syracuse. Av, Avola; Pa, Pachino; Br, Bourammad, Ms, Marsaxlokk. Dj, Djerba Island; Gu, Gulf of Gabes. The RSL history of northwestern Sicily comprises 9 index points and 5 limiting points. Data come from a lagoon core near Marsala and from fossil vermetid reefs in Capo San Vito and near Palermo (Fig. 9, #12). Ad- ditional limiting points derive from fossil marine shells collected on Marettimo Island and near Palermo and archaeological investigations in the Punic town of Mozia. The oldest limiting points constrain the RSL below ~— 27 m and above ~— 25 m at ~9.5 ka BP. There is a hiatus of data up to ~2.8 ka BP when an index point places the RSL at The RSL history for Southern Sicily and Malta is restricted to the mid and late Holocene. The database is composed of 14 index points and 9 limiting points from lagoon cores near Pachino (Sicily) and in Burmarrad (Malta). Additional limiting points derive from archaeologi- cal surveys undertaken in Avola (Sicily) and along the Maltese coast near Marsaxlokk (Fig. 9, #14). The oldest intercalated index point places the RSL at — 11.1 + 1.0 mat ~7.5 ka BP. At ~6.1 ka BP, index and limiting points constrain the RSL to ~-7 m. Two index points indicate RSL was be- tween — 4.4 m and — 3.2 mat ~4.7 ka. RSL slowed in the late Holocene.

Fig. 10. RSL reconstructions in Venice and Friuli lagoons (#16), northeastern Adriatic Sea (#17), and northwestern Adriatic Sea (#18). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to the present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. Dimensions of boxes and lines for each point based on 2s elevation and age errors. The relative sea-level data are compared to a prediction (red line with minimum and maximum errors) from the SELEN model (see Section 4). Red dots represent the approximate ___location of RSL data-points. V1, Venice lagoon; Cl, Caorle lagoon; Gl, Grado lagoon; Mf, Monfalcone. Tr, Gulf of Trieste, Pg, Pag Island. Pd, Po Delta; Cm, Comacchio coastal plain; Rp, Romagna coastal plain. The RSL database for the northeastern Adriatic Sea is composed of 28 index points and 6 limiting points (Fig. 10, #17). Data come from marsh and lagoon cores near Trieste, on the Istrian coast and on Pag Island. Off- shore cores undertaken during geological and geo-archaeological sur- veys in the Gulf of Trieste and on the Istrian coast provided additional index and limiting points. The oldest limiting point places the RSL below -28 m at 10.9 ka BP. During the early Holocene, multiple interca- ated index and limiting points indicate that RSL was between — 28 and —23 m between 10 and 9.6 ka BP. However, one basal index point places the RSL at —22+1.2 m at ~9.6 ka BP. In the mid-Holocene, two basal index points constrain the RSL to -2.9+ 1.0 m at ~5.0 ka BP. At ~3.1 ka BP one intercalated index point from Trieste placed the RSL at —0.1+0.8 m while a coeval basal index point from the Istrian coast places the RSL at -1.29+1.1 m. At ~2.0 ka BP multiple archaeological index and limiting points place the RSL between — 1.75 and — 1.4 m. In the northern part of the Gulf of Trieste, the archaeological data are The RSL history in this region is composed of 49 index points and 9 limiting points (Fig. 10, #16). Most of the data are from coring and geoarchaeological surveys of Venice lagoon. Additional index and limit- ing points derive from cores on the Friuli coastal plain and the lagoons of Grado-Marano and Caorle, and near the town of Monfalcone. RSL is not well constrained in the early Holocene with the oldest limiting point

Fig. 11. RSL history in mid-eastern Adriatic Sea (#19), mid-western Adriatic Sea (#20), northern Apulia (#21) and southern Apulia (#22). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to the present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. Dimensions of boxes and lines for each point based on 2s elevation and age errors. The relative sea-level data are compared to a prediction (red line with minimum and maximum errors) from the SELEN model (see Section 4). Red dots represent the approximate ___location of RSL data-points. Vi, Vis Island; Bs, Bisevo Island. Ps, Pescara coastal plain; Sg, Sangro coastal plain; Bt, Battaglia lake; Mf, Gulf of Manfredonia; Fr, Frattarolo lagoon. Eg, Egnazia; Al, Alimini piccolo lake. RSL is well constrained in the early to mid Holocene. By contrast, few data are available for the late Holocene. The oldest index place the RSL at — 53.0+0.9 m at ~12.9 ka BP. A suite of index indicate that RSL rose to ~— 43.0 m at ~12.2 ka BP. Younge show scatter, most likely related to the variability in subsi rates driven by the sediment compaction. However, a suite of points points r data dence basal index points indicates a rapid rise in RSL in the remaining part of the early Holocene. RSL was at -23.3+0.8 m at ~10 ka -20.0+0.8 m at ~9.2 ka BP, and at —15.141.5 m at ~8.2 BP, at ka BP. Mid-Holocene index points indicate a continuous rise in RSL that, at ~7.1 ka BP and at ~6.0 ka BP, was at -8.3+1.5 m and at —7.6+0.8 m, respectively. Between 5 and 4.5 ka BP, limiting constrain the RSL below —4.1 and above -4.6 m. There is a 1 data-points between 4.5 and 1.8 ka BP. Younger basal index indicate a RSL stillstand at ~— 2.8 m between ~1.7 and ~1.2 points ack of points ka BP. The RSL history for the mid-western Adriatic Sea (Fig. 11, #20) is composed of 3 index points and 3 limiting points from the coastal plain of Pescara and the lower Sangro river valley. At ~10.4 ka BP, RSL was lower than — 18.6 m. The oldest intercalated index point places the RSL at -11+0.6 m at ~7.7 ka BP. RSL rose to —7.441.1 m at ~7.7 ka BP. A lack of index points did not allow us to properly assess the RSL in the last ~7.5 ka BP. The youngest limiting point indicates that RSL was above -3 m ~2.5 ka BP.

A major issue in sea-level studies is to understand how small scale RSL changes are manifest in coastal sedimentary sequences (e.g., Kemp et al., 2011; Gehrels and Shennan, 2015). In our database, marsh and lagoonal index points represents the majority of data. How- ever, the vertical error bars of these index points remain too large to capture sub-millennial RSL variability in the microtidal setting of the Mediterranean Sea. To this end, methodological developments of the transfer function (e.g. Juggins and Birks, 2012) offer the potential for high-resolution sea-level reconstructions (e.g., Gehrels, 2000; Kemp and Telford, 2015). The identification of small-scale bio-stratigraphic changes from coastal sedimentary sequences and the development of regional predictive plant zonation-, foraminifera- and/or ostracod- We reconstructed the RSL histories of the western Mediterranean using an innovative multi-proxy standardization methodology based Fig. 12. Example of the applicability of the proposed multiproxy standardization in central France (A), southern Tunisia (B), and southwestern Sardinia (C). Index points (boxes) are plotted as calibrated age against change in sea level relative to present. Limiting points are plotted as terrestrial or marine horizontal lines. The dimensions of boxes and lines for each point are based on 2s elevation and age errors.

Fig. 13. A) Total plot of the western Mediterranean index points from areas that are tectonically stable and minimally affected by compaction-related subsidence. B) Variability of late Holocene (last 4.0 ka BP) RSL index points in the western Mediterranean. Note that the x and y axis are forced to the MSL at A.D. 1900. C) Approximate ___location of the index points plotted (red dots) and not plotted (gray dots) in panel a, see Section 6.3 for details. D) Normal distribution of late Holocene rising rates plotted against the 20th century RSL rise (with error) derived from long-term Mediterranean tidal gauges (see Table 3). Number above squares denotes the number of years used to compute the trend. MG, Malaga; MS, Marseille; GE, Genova; VE, Venezia P. Salute; TR, Trieste; RO, Rovinj; BK, Bakar; SP, Split Gradska; DB, Dubrovnik. Comparatively, the late Holocene record (i.e. the last 4 ka BP) is af- fected by less scatter. In this period, ice equivalent meltwater input is negligible (Peltier, 2004; Milne et al., 2005; Church et al., 2008). There- fore, once tectonics and sediment compaction are factored out, any change observed in RSL is entirely related to vertical land movements due to GIA (e.g., Engelhart et al., 2009, 2015). According to Engelhart et al., 2009, we calculated the late Holocene RSL rising rates excluding the 20th century sea-level contribution and thus expressing all our data with respect to MSL at A.D. 1900 (Fig. 13B). We further excluded for this analysis the southern Tunisia index points describing a RSL his- tory not comparable with the other datasets in our study area (see Section 6.2). Thus, the late Holocene record in Fig. 13B most likely en- compasses the total variability in isostatic contribution in the western Mediterranean. Our estimates indicate that GIA-related land move- ments in the western Mediterranean vary between ~3.4 m in the south- eastern part of the basin up to ~1.6 m in the northwest. The latter value is mainly derived from region #14 and #22, where the Holocene record is only based on intercalated index points. For this reason, assessment of In this paper, we reviewed 917 RSL proxies using, for the first time in the Mediterranean basin, a standardized protocol to produce RSL index and limiting points. This allowed us to compare and contrast data from different literature sources in order to obtain basin-scale insights into the processes driving Holocene RSL changes. The database in Appendix Ais dynamic and future users can add further data or subdivide the data

E-mail address: vacchi@cerege.fr (M. Vacchi). A review of 917 relative sea-level (RSL) data-points has resulted in the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi- proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes: (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distri- bution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number ot archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSI histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G (VM2) GIA model. In the western Mediterranean RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic ad- justment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand com- patible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the on- going sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower lati- tudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide im-

Table 1 estuary taxa (e.g., Aurila spp., Xestoleberis spp., Leptocythere spp., Loxoconcha spp.). Finding a direct relationship between these fossil as- semblages and a palaeo MSL is challenging because quantitative analysis of modern analogs are seldom reported in the literature. Nonetheless, we produced index points using samples containing in situ C. glaucum mol- lusc shells, a euryhaline species living in salinities of 4-100%. and not tol- erant of significant aerial exposure (Nikula and Vainéla, 2003; Orrt et al., 2014). Since C. glaucum lives within the first 2 m of depth (Gravina et al., 1989; Lambeck et al., 2004a; Primavera et al., 2011), we associated an in- dicative range from 0 to —2 MSL to the samples in outer or marine- influenced lagoon facies (Fig. 3B, Table 1). oxygen depletion on the lagoon bottom (Lachenal, 1989; Cimerman and Langer, 1991). The evolution of a coastal lagoon from an open to semi-enclosed envi- ronment is commonly recorded in the buried lagoonal successions of the Mediterranean's clastic coastlines, in a so-called regressive sequence (e.g., Reineck and Singh, 1973; Caldara et al., 2008; Sabatier et al., 2010). The gradual development of sandy barriers favours the progressive isolation of the brackish water body with consequent silting and evapora- tion (Kjerfve, 1994). This leads to significant shallowing and silting of the semi-enclosed lagoons with respect to the open lagoons. The depth of these lagoons seldom exceeds a few decimetres (e.g., Ruiz et al., 2006; Vott, 2007) and the concomitant presence of macrophytes such as of Ruppia maritima and Lamprothamnium papulosum is consistent with max- imum lagoon depths of — 1 m (e.g., Primavera et al., 2011). Thus, samples found in inner or semi-enclosed lagoon facies (usually lagoonal shells, plant remains, organic sediments, wood or charcoal) have an associated indicative range from 0 to — 1 m (Fig. 3B, Table 1).

Viscosity parameters used to predict the nominal, maximal and minimal RSL curve fo: each region. Table 2

Ongoing sea-level rise rates recorded by long-term (>50 years) tide gauges in the western Mediterranean (source, PMSL, access date, 22/02/2016, http: //www.psmsl.org/products, trends/trends.txt).

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Mapping the Extent of Coastal Regulation Zone Violations of the Indian Coast

by Nandakumar D

1999, … : National Fish Workers Forum

Figure 3. LOCATION OF SOME VIOLATIONS IN MAHARASHTRA

Figure 4. LOCATION OF SOME VIOLATIONS IN KARNATAKA

LOCATION OF SOME VIOLATIONS IN NELLORE & PRAKASAM Dist. — AP

LOCATION OF SOME SPECIFIC VIOLATIONS IN ORRISSA

Figure 9. LOCATION OF SOME VIOLATIONS IN WESTBENGAL

SLNo. 6. Both for CRZ II & II, prior approval of the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MEF); total plot size should be more than 0.4 hectares and total covered area on all floors shall not exceed 33% of the plot size. The construction should be consistent with the surrounding landscape and local architectural style. Height of the building should not exceed 9 meters and should have only two floors (ground + first floor).

Table no. 1 Summary of the Physical features of Indian Coast The West and East coasts of India are constantly subjected to the vagaries of Monsoonal climate which is the dominant climatic regime of the northern Indian Ocean and its effects are felt far into the subtropics of the southern hemisphere. The word ‘monsoon’ is derived from the Arabic word “‘mausom’ meaning seasonally reversing winds. The northeast monsoon (December to March) determines the climate of the northern Indian Ocean during Northern Hemisphere winter. It is characterised by a high pressure over the landmass and a persistent northeasterly winter. It is characterised by a high pressure over the landmass and a persistent northeasterly

Table no. 2 Details of the questionnaire surveys done in each of the coastal states.

Kumargadgudda, Shimirgudda and Anjudip islands that are under the Sea Bird area project, which should be categorised under the Island category, CRZ-IV. Mapping The Extent of Coastal Regulation Zone Violations of the Indian Coast

Archaeological importance: Lord Jagannath temple (1100 AD), Konark temple (1250 AD: West Bengal CZMP Tourism — Puri, Konark, Chilka, Chandipur and Gopalpur. Coastline 220 km (21° 35’ N and 87° 30’ 89° 10’ E) from the mouth of Subarnarekha on the west to the mouth of the river Harinbhanga on the east covering important beaches like Digha, Sankarpur, Bakkhali, Frezargaune, places of important like Ganga Sagar Island, Mangrove forests of Sunderbans, Nijkasba and Khejuri, the wildlife sanctuaries (Sajnakhali, Halliday and Lothian), one national park (Sunderbans National Park) the Sunderbans Tiger Reserve, the Sunderbans Biosphere Reserve, Sankarpur Fishing Harbor apart from innumerable jetties and fish landing centres within Sunderbans Biosphere Reserve. About 4,05,000 ha area exist within CRZ for brackish water aquaculture.* Two port — Paradeep port operational 1966, Gopalpur monor port in 1987 to cater the needs of IRE.

* The total of which does not include the 200 to 500 m CRZ Table no.5 Percentage analysis across the country on different categories in the NDZ

from this ___location the Tarapur Atomic Power Station impose the horizon with its huge dome on the horizon sowing invisible death. Aquaculture and related activities contribute to 13.64% and tourism contributes to 2.27% of the total violation. The summary of the violation in the state is given in the table no. 7. Location of some specific violations in Maharashtra is depicted in the map No.3.

Kerala As for the Karnataka coast, the north Kanara and South Kanara districts are surveyed for the viola- tion mapping and 30 violations were recorded Of the 30 violations, 82.76% are tourism related, clustered around Uduppi, Mavalli and neighbouring areas Industrial activity contributes to 13.77% and aquaculture 3.45%. All the violations recorded are in the NDZ, of this 21 violations recorded are in the tourism sector and all are in CRZ-III. Location of some specific violations in Karnataka coast is given in map No. 4. Kerala is the only state for which violation mapping was carried out throughout the coasts. Though Kerala has a well-prepared CZM Plan, the State’s interest is to relax the notification so as to accommodate the ‘development’ in the state. Different committees were constituted to dilute the present accepted plan, but to no avail. Thanks to the resistance put up by peoples groups. The plan enforces all that is mentioned in the original notification. The survey was

Table no.9 Different CRZ violation recorded in Kerala Tamilnadu

Table no.11 Different CRZ violation recorded in Prakasam and Nellore district of Andhra Pradesh Ganjam, Balewar, Puri, Bhadrak, and Kasaphale districts of Orissa were surveyed and a total of 24 violations were recorded. Out of the five districts, Puri comes under the CRZ-II, which is an urban area. This area has experienced rapid development in the tourism sector 4.17% of the surveyed violations are reported under this category. This is only a representation to overall tourism development in the coasts of Orissa. Puri town is one of the known tourist areas of the country. Therefore, this choice. Recently one of the holiday resorts companies has constructed a road close to the HTL, north of Puri Township, at Baliapada. This is done to develop the land- ward part of the road taking the advantage that the area is in CRZ-II.

Andhra Pradesh Districts of Prakasam and Nellore of Andhra Pradesh were surveyed for the violation mapping The survey was restricted to the aquaculture violations and related activities alone. Still for the two districts alone, 48 violations were recorded. The aquaculture activity in this region is con. centrated on the banks of the creeks and the Buckingham canal, which though located in the interior has the influence of the tidal waters. It is in Andhra Pradesh that the adverse effects o: intensive aquaculture activity severely felt. And this lead to the Supreme Court order banning all modern aquaculture activities in the entire coastal stretch of the country. Out of the 48 viola tion recorded, all are either in or near the creeks or on the banks of the canal about 400 meter: away from the seacoast. And the average size of each of these plots comes to 100 hectares. Th« violations recorded in the state are given in the table no. 11. Locations of some violations ir Nellore and Prakasam districts are shown in Map No. 7.

Orissa is probably the only state in the country where aquaculture ponds were demolished as per the court order. Across the village Sahana and the river Devu, there is extensive areas of modern shrimp farms, owned by the son-in-law of the Orissa Chief Minister. The land is acquired from 6 villages — Sahana, Nuagad, Nanapur, Balisali and Dudhia. Extensive mangrove clearing has taken place. The Supreme Court Order stopping all aquafarm activities were carried out only at Boripada Gram Panchayat of Gopalpur district. About 12 shrimp farms, i.e. about 340 acres have been stopped and demolished by the administration here. Another farm, 40 km south of Diega extends right out to the inter-tidal zone, which is active even now. A total of 95.83% of the violation are reported as aquaculture related. This is only a representative district, which cannot be generalised for the entire state. The visit to Puri, Baliapada and Chandrabaga revealed the extent to which the Orissa coast has been subjected to tourism, urbanisation and other devel- opmental activities. Location of some violations in Orissa are shown in map no. 8.

fable no. 13. Different CRZ violation recorded in Midnapur and 24 Parganas of West Bengal

Check List for Mapping Violations in CRZ (See at the end of the checklist: details given on conditions permitting activities in CRZ)

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A PALEOINDIAN ENCAMPMENT AT 44NH233: AN INUNDATED COASTAL PALEOINDIAN SITE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEASHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA

by Dennis Stanford and

The extant terrestrial Paleoindian sites on the Delmarva Peninsula suggest a hunting emphasis. Interpretations about Paleoindian lifestyles in the Middle Atlantic coastal plain are greatly biased by marine transgression. Research... more

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Recent Progress, Trends, and Developments in Island and Coastal Archaeology

by Scott Fitzpatrick

2015, Journal of Island & Coastal Archaeology

In the first issue of the Journal of Island & Coastal Archaeology published 10 years ago, Erlandson and Fitzpatrick (2006) outlined eight topics which demonstrated why island and coastal archaeology were relevant to understanding a host... more

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Geoarchaeology of tsunamis and the revival of neo-catastrophism in the Eastern Mediterranean

by Christophe Morhange and

2014, published in Rome "La Sapienza" Studies on the Archaeology of Palestine & Transjordan (ROSAPAT 11), pp. 31-51.

Fig. 1 - Tsunami activity and plate tectonics in the Mediterranean Sea. Historical data compiled by Stewart and Morhange (2009). The Mediterranean occupies the convergence zone between three major tectonic plates, Africa, Eurasia and Arabia’*. The result is a complex network of plate tectonic structures, most notably two major subduction zones in the western Mediterranean Sea (Calabrian arc subduction system) and the eastern Mediterranean Sea (Hellenic and Cyprus arcs subduction system). Seismic activity is strongly linked to these tectonic features, and because earthquakes often generate tsunamis, it is logical that the distri- bution of palaeo-tsunami sources mimics the seismotectonic trend (fig. 1)’.

Fig. 2 - History of peer-reviewed articles on tsunami geology including government publications, based primarily on GeoRef and Web-of-Science databases. Non-English language articles are underrepresented (after Bourgeois 2009).

Fig. 3 - Temporal distribution of 2341 tsunami events listed in the database of the National Geophysical Data Center, USA. The database contains the events of the past 4000 years until 2001 AD (after Scheffers - Kelletat 2003).

Fig. 4 - Growth rate of tsunami publications between 1997-2008 in Scopus data base (after Sagar et a/. 2010).

Fig. 5 - Keyword “tsunami” for the period 1950-2009. Source: Scopus, 2arth and planetary sciences. USA & Canada (black line), France, Germany, Italy & UK (gray line) (after Marriner - Morhange - Skrimshire 2010).

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Abstract Book_Final VOLUME_Dar es Salaam_2014.pdf

by Ambili Premesh

The global national situation related with Geological Heritages and Geopark possibilities in Tanzania Limestone Urban Geomorphology in Minya Governorate, Women Participation in the Nigerian Geoscience Academia The Nile valley in Minya... more

Figure 2: Well logs showing facies description-coarsening and fining upward sequences (red and green rectangles respectively. Table 1: Table showing the different seismic facies as observed within the Tytoolz-fiy field

There are 400 abstracts from the Third World Y.E.S Congress 2014. The authors are from more than 40 countries all over the world. This congress got support from BG-Tanza- nia, and other enormous support from various institutions with patronage of Ministry c : y and Mir erals of United Republic of Tanzania. Themes include: Geoscience for Sc ety; Geology and Minerals; Environmental, Hydrogeology and Climate Change; oe Resources; Tonics and Geohazards; and Mathematical Geology and Geo-information. which are essential topics toward enhancing sustainable development through promotir sustainable management of Earth resources for mniclusive and equitable economic growth as well as creating greater opportunities for all. This book of abstracts can be used and consulted by young earth scientists who are from different fields of earth sciences.

Overview from the Open-Air Museum with the the Museum Buiding in —_, the background (original) “Monachus” Group of Scientific Research and Ecological Education, Constanta, Romania “Dr. Fawaz Azki” Geological Museum, Kismin-Lattakia, Syria oe — ge x ~ Monica Axini, Fawaz Al-Azki

fig 1. :Shale showing iron oxides dispersed in the rock Patrick BACIRHONDE M.,'. Albert KYAMBIKWA M.”. Corneille KAPAJIKA B.,°. Damien DELVAUX 4 Contribution to geological studies of Lwango region, DR Congo

fore the Nyabirama model should be used as analogue for future exploration work in the Nyantare area.

Graph showing Matrix density (p__) and fluid density (p, ) derived from core data and density logs Graph showing Resistivity of formation saline water at different reservoir temperatures

Finally accounting for the difference in equivalent hydrocar- bon column in the reservoir interval towards reliable assessment of hydrocarbon saturation in the shaly sand reservoir.

The coastal sediments of Kerala are morphostratigraphical- ly of two types i.e. depositional and denudational. They are of marine, fluvial and fluvio-marine origin and dominated by foraminifera assemblages. Samples have been systematically collected from Kadappuram Formation (barrier beach, spit), Viyyam Formation (tidal flat, intertidal ridges, delta) and Gu- ruvayur Formation (strandline, palaeo-tidal plain). Among the recorded foraminifera, species of Ammonia such as Ammonia beccarii and Ammonia tepida are dominant with sporadic occur- rences of Elphidium crispum, Spiroloculina sp., Triloculina sp., Quinquiloculina sp., Nonion sp., etc. The benthic foraminifers such as Ammonia sp., Spiroloculina sp. and Quinquiloculina sp. indicate a normal marine inner continental shelf / intertidal depositional environment with a maximum sea water depth of 1013m, maximum temperature of 28.82°C, maximum salinity of 39.07 PSU and maximum dissolved oxygen of 6.75ml/L. The presence of deep water dwelling Triloculina sp. indicates a pro-

Rehabilitation of exploration site after a drilling campaign

Green Transport Solutions for Develo = i cone td Ee eae i] oy greennuncitiescom The sensors used; MSS, TM and ETM+ have varied spec- tral resolution. This presented a challenge in the comparison of Landsat images (for both siltation and LUCC). Therefore, this is an area for further studies, that is, to quantify the suspended sedi- ments within the Lake and to map the extent of land occupied by natural forest within the watersheds.

spiration recorded during that same period which is a typica characteristic of semi-arid regions. The average recharge rates for the three probes vary be- tween 1.31 mm/day, and 1.41 mm/day. Soil moisture predic- tions for the upper 0.4 m of the unsaturated zone had better accuracy while the model slightly overestimated its predic- ion at greater depths. Given that the simulation period was relatively short, it was suggested data for at least two years be used for better results.Poorly identified model parameters and also the non-inclusion of hysteresis were found critical to improve the model performance.

Figure 1. Concentration at H=0m Figure 2. Concentration at H=4m Key words: Atmospheric pollutants dispersion, Analyti- cal solution, numerical solution.

financing of the groups armed to the East of the RDC In end, the government of the RDC owes all to put in walk for a good artisanal exploitation by the application of the mining code and also fought against the insecurity because the illicit exploitation of ores and considered like a means of Canaan at thea neraiK«e arena + tha Bant nf thaw DTW Artisanal Mining in DR Congo: Environmental impacts and challenges. Case of study: Kamituga mining district /South Kivu/DR Congo

with shaly sand water saturation models using Wax man-Smits equation and Poupon-Leveaux model

struction reservoir model. This begins with designing ge- ologically based petrophysical models, then concurrently identifying the correspondence between reservoir architec- ture and fluid-flow trends, then establishing the reservoir model flow unit and compartment components. Last but not least the petrophysical properties are distributed spatially and the hydrocarbons in place are calculated. In a nutshell, reserve growth potential is evaluated through calculating reserves, delineating the remaining hydrocarbon resource. Application of Spectral Decomposition to 3-D Visualization of thin Sandstone Reservoir in “X Field” Niger Delta, Nigeria.

Figure 1: Seismic amplitude extraction on Oligocene sequence boundary, Block I Tanzania. Horizon interpretation created using global interpretation methodology.

Figure 1: Structural time map, show- ng structures-faults and roll over anticlines.

Mudlogging is surface logging which involves the ap- plication of the principles of physics to the interpretation of down hole data in correlation with the geological details obtained from the ditch cuttings coming out of the drilled hole (formation evaluation). Mudlogging operation is basi- cally carried out on a rig while drilling for oil and gas; i serves as a major tool in knowing the well condition, detec- ion of fluid influx into the well (kick), identification of oi and gas reservoir etc. It thus helps in blow out prevention and the subsequent environmental pollution that follows it. Furthermore, a typical mudlogging unit consists of severa sensors for monitoring the drilling parameters and six crew members as the case maybe. Some of the major sensors are pit sensor for monitoring the volume of mud in the pit, this helps to detect an increase or a decrease in mud volume. A sudden increase in mud volume in the active pit could be a kick and this could result in a blow out if not controlled, while a decrease could be as a result of fractured formation, hole washout or ballooning effect which could lead to loss of drilling mud. Other important sensors are the gas trap which extracts the entrapped gas coming out of the well, the flow sensors for monitoring the volume of mud flow from the wellbore, a sudden increase could be regarded as a kick. ]

Figure 2: 3D view of the bathymetric structure dur- ing the Messinian in the northeastern moroccan margin, based on seismic reflexion profils and isochrones map. Faculty of Science of Rabat, Agdal, 4 Tbn Battouta Avenue B.P. 1014 Rp, Rabat, Morocco. Scientific Institut of Rabat, Agdal, 4“ Tbn Battouta Avenue B.P. 1014 Rp, Rabat, Morocco.

entire 3D volume. From this geological model sequence boundaries are identified and can be viewed as chrono-strati- graphic horizons on which 3D seismic attributes such as reflection amplitude are extracted (Figure 1). Depositional geomorphologies can be visualised in high fidelity aiding interpretation of sand distribution, architecture and facies. Figure 1: Seismic amplitude extraction on Oligocene sequence boundary, Block 1 Tanzania. Horizon interpre- tation created using global interpretation methodology.

SANSN), Bulawayo (BUL), Lesotho Highlands Water Pro- jects (LHWP), the Geological Survey of Namibia, the Geolog- ical Survey of Botswana, the University of Botswana, the Na- tional Earthquake Information Centre (NEIC), the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), and the International Seis- mic Centre (ISC) were retrieved and evaluated. After the data from the different sources were merged, duplicates and in- duced earthquakes were removed. The catalogue was unified with all magnitude types converted to Mw. To ensure that all he events are independent, several procedures were carried out to decluster the catalogue. Figure | is the map of southern Africa showing the epicentres in the preliminary catalogue for southern Africa following the declustering process. The larg- est event in the catalogue occurred in 1952 and is located at Okavango Delta region in Botswana with a magnitude of 6.7.

The lithology of MUGARA career and the cover of volcanics blocks

C.S.LR.- National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, India (sandeep.ngri@gmail.com) Sandeep Gupta*, Kajaljyoti Borah, Santosh Mishra, S.S. Rai

Timing of Volcanism and Initiation of Rifting in Omo-Turkana Depression, Southwestern Ethiopia: Evidence from Paleomagnetism 1eme 6: Mathematical Geology and Geo informatio Asfaw Erbello ** Tesfaye Kidane’ Francis H.Brown ‘

Figure 2: Histogram of seismicity for southern Africa

Combination of geological and geophysical data for the determination of aquifer geometry in a complex hydrosystem. Application to Plio-Quaternary aquifer Dradere Soueire basin (Region Moulay Bousselham - North Western Morocco). Iheme 6: Mathematical Geology and Geo information Mr Issam BOUGARN Laboratoire des Géosciences des Ressources Naturelles, Faculté des Sciences Kénitra.Moroc

Figure 2: 3D view of the bathymetric structure dur- ng the Messinian in the northeastern moroccan margin, based on seismic reflexion profils and isochrones map.

Table 1. Summary of statistic test and sen’s slope estimator’s results for the Selected weather stations to Mwanza which have dreasing trend of 0.165mm/year. At 0.05 level of significance the these downward trend for both stations were not statistically significant. Decreasing trends which are not statistically significant at 0.05level was detect- ed for seasonal rainfall in October, November and Decem- ber for both bimodal stations. March, April and May season rainfall for bimodal stations has shown an increasing trend which is not statistically significant at 0.05 level. For uni- modal rainfall stations Tabora and Mtwara the total annual

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Change of a delta

by ABHIJIT MITRA

Climate change induced sea level rise (SLR) added with anthropogenically altered environment leads to rapid land dynamics in terms of erosion and accretion; and alteration in species diversity and productivity, more pronouncedly in... more

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Human influence and the changing geomorphology of Mediterranean deltas

by Christophe Morhange and

2014, Eart Science Reviews

The present geomorphology of the Mediterranean’s coasts is largely a product of an intricate long-term relationship between Nature and human societies. A cradle of ancient civilizations, the Mediterranean has seen its shores occupied by... more

The present geomorphology of the Mediterranean’s coasts is largely a product of an intricate long-term relationship between Nature and human societies. A cradle of ancient
civilizations, the Mediterranean has seen its shores occupied by Humans since Prehistory, and is, therefore, a particularly pertinent unit of analysis. The morphotectonic context and
other forcing agents (e.g., climate) shaped out a highly diversified coastal morphology and generated a sediment-supply regime potentially favourable to the formation of numerous open-coast deltas and bay-head deltas in infilled rias as sea level stabilised during the mid- Holocene. This supply of riverine sediment has also been the key agent in mediating human occupation of the Mediterranean’s clastic coasts.

Expressions of this relationship have been extensively archived in clastic coastal deposits, including base-level deltaic and estuarine sedimentary sinks, which comprise records to explore the interactions between geosystemsand the human environment. The stratigraphic sequences in these coastal sedimentary archives comprise, in many places, a clearly identified anthropogenic signature, notably in ancient harbours, some of which underwent extremely rapid silting up due to massive sediment sourcing generated by new agricultural practices from the Neolithic onwards.

Increasing human influence, especially over the last 3000 years, has been, in turn, an important driver of changes in sediment supply, strongly modulating deltaic development.
Pulses of sediment supply from catchments rendered vulnerable by human perturbations during the Roman period resulted in a new cycle of inception of many other deltas and in
rapid delta growth (e.g. the Ebro, the Po, the Arno and the Ombrone). Another progradation dynamic during the Little Ice Age, at a time of strong rural population growth, river discharge
increases, technological developments, and urbanisation, further consolidated delta growth.

Understanding the life cycle of these deltas since their initial formation is, in turn, key to unravelling the relative role of natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. Rapid climate
changes are deemed to have contributed through both the stripping of landscapes rendered fragile by human activities and active fluvial sediment transport to the coast, but
disentangling climate change effects from human impacts in the Mediterranean remains a challenge.

The patterns of subsequent deltaic growth and delta morphodynamics reflect adaptations to pulsed sediment supply, river discharge variations, the microtidal, fetchlimited
context of the Mediterranean, and direct engineering interventions. The progradation dynamic of the Roman period and Little Ice Age contrasts markedly with the situation of common coastal destabilisation over the last two centuries, particularly well documented for the last 50 years. This period has been characterised by reduced sediment flux to base-level geosystems due to catchment reforestation, retenion within reservoirs, fluvial regulation and dredging, resulting in the erosion of deltas and barrier-lagoon and beach-dune systems. Large stretches of shoreline and narrow coastal plains have been massively engineered for coastal defence and protection against erosion, but also for the construction of marinas, leisure harbours and artificial beaches, resulting in the emergence of veritable artificial seafronts. These interventions have, collectively and progressively, raised societies to a pervasive and overarching position in the geomorphic stabilityinstability of the Mediterranean’s coasts, a situation that will be exacerbated by pressures from sea-level rise, paving the way for rampant coastal erosion and delta destruction.

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MODERN SHORELINE CHANGES ALONG THE NILE DELTA COAST AS AN IMPACT OF CONSTRUCTION OF THE ASWAN HIGH DAM

by Magdy Torab

Before the construction of the Dam, silt used to be spread over land or carried to the delta coast. It is estimated that each year floods used to deposit 12 million tones of silt on land along the delta and Nile valley north of the High Aswan Dam . The reduction in soil fertility due to the loss of the nitrogenous component of the silt now has to be compensated for by the annual addition less than 13 thousand tones sediments (Frihy, 1988).

Fig.2: Major geomorphic units of The northern portion of the Nile Delta

-2 Coastline changes of Damietta promontory are similar to those of area. Erosion of the Damietta promontory started about 1900 too, it 3.7 km between 1900-1991 averaged 40.7 m/yr. The average rates of the western and eastern sides between 1900 and 1973 was about 35 an but it increased to more than 100 m/yr after construction of The although some protected walls and groins have been constructed during thi period (Fig.4&5). The W/E currents accreted a 4.5 km long spit eastern side of the Damietta promontory, that spit appeared on photos witch observed and recorded by (Frihy, 1988). the Rosetta lost about d 40 m/yr High Dam . L near th 983 aeri Bo

Fig7:Size fraction of erosional beach samples

(Tab.1)The evaluation of the major topographic units between 1925-2001(km3)

The coastline has been divided into 7 sectors from west to east (Fig. 5), itch show morphological changes of coastline between 1984 and 2001. The ile Delta coastline is generally convex shape in three promontories at The osetta mouth, Burullus lagoon neck and The Damietta mouth, they separated ith two concave wide bays, as a result of action of the NW prevailing wind, d W/E longshore currents effects, the eastern sides of these promontories are trograded by coastal erosion, but accretion took place to the outer eastern sides of these promontories and bays. = AZ -oB8 = -3The coastal plain unit: The Nile Delta coastal plain wasted by erosion more than 30.86 km2 between 1925 and 2001, most of these areas lies in the western sides of The Rosetta and Damietta promontories. The average of erosion increased from 91.4 during the period (from1925 to1984) to130.8 acres/yr during the modem period (1984-2001) as a result of storage the Nile water in [ake Nasser. In the other hand the coastal plain extended by accretion processes not more than 24.43 km2 from 1925 to 2001, and the average reduce from 93.7 acres/yr before 1984 to less than 30 acres/yr (Tab.3).

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2018, Bivolaru A. et al., Between the Danube Delta and the Black Sea. Preliminary results of a multi-proxy study of two archaeological sites (Histria and Halmyris, Romania), Black Sea Archaeology Studies, Recent Developments, D. Yiğitpaşa, H. Öniz, A. Temür eds., TINA, pp. 13-31.

by Christophe Morhange and

2018, Black Sea Archaeology Studies, Recent Developments, D. Yiğitpaşa, H. Öniz, A. Temür eds., TINA

2018, Bivolaru A., Giaime M., Rossi V., Bottez V., Marriner N., Morhange C., Lungu V., Streinu M., Between the Danube Delta and the Black Sea. Preliminary results of a multi-proxy study of two archaeological sites (Histria and Halmyris,... more

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Cambiamenti del livello relative del mare durante l’Olocene: un contributo da dati vulcanologici e archeologici

by Christophe Morhange

2013, Miscellanea INGV, 18, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, AA.VV., Di Vito M. A., de Vita S. (eds.), pp. 77-81.

Immagine di frontespizio Impronte umane sulla cenere dell'eruzione pliniana del Vesuvio avvenuta nel 1950 a.C. (Bronzo Antico)

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THE CYPRUS ANCIENT SHORELINE PROJECT REPORT – 2014

by Georgia M . Andreou and

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Vulnerability of Mediterranean Ecosystems to Long-Term Changes along the Coast of Israel

by Christophe Morhange

2014, PLOS ONE

Although human activity is considered to be a major driving force affecting the distribution and dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems, the full consequences of projected climate variability and relative sea-level changes on fragile... more

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A multi-proxy analysis of the Holocene humid phase from the United Arab Emirates and its implications for southeast Arabia's Neolithic populations

by Méry Sophie and

2015, Quaternary International

ABSTRACT An early-to mid-Holocene humid phase has been identified in various Arabian geo-archives, although significant regional heterogeneity has been reported in the onset, duration and stability of this period. A multi-proxy lake and... more

Please cite this article in press as: Preston, G.W., et al., A multi-proxy analysis of the Holocene humid phase from the United Arab Emirates anc its implications for southeast Arabia's Neolithic populations, Quaternary International (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.01.054

Fig. 2. (a) Satellite image of Wahalah palaeolake in 2013. The locations of the sampling trench from this investigation, the dune sections sampled by Atkinson et al. (2011), and the axes of the main dune ridges are shown, as are the locations of the archaeological material found by the French Archaeological Mission to the UAE (led by V. Charpentier and S Méry) (For interpretation of the colours in the figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article). (b) A photograph of Wahalah palaeolake looking north-eas towards the centre of the basin (taken in 2005). (c) A cross-section of the palaeolake sediment sequence. Source of the satellite image: Google Earth.

Fig. 3. Depth versus age plot for the Wahalah sequence. AMS ages (black circles) were calibrated using Calib 7.0.2 and the IntCal09 data set (Reimer et al., 2009). Calibrated ages are given with their 20 error range. Sediment depths were converted to ages by assuming linear sedimentation between the mean of the four depth—age points from 1.93 to 1.55 m, 1.55 to 1.19 m, and 1.19 to 0.65 m (solid line). The age of the base of the sequence is calculated by extrapolation of the regression line (dashed line). The depths of stratigraphic Unit I-VI are shown. The '4c dates performed on M. tuberculata shells yielded ages of 8.41—8.20 ka cal. BP (Poz-14898) and 7.93—7.70 ka cal. BP (Poz-

Fig. 4. The Wahalah sediment stratigraphy, with the main stratigraphic units and AMS dates

Fig. 5. Multi-proxy record of the Wahalah palaeolake sequence. The graphs are divided into the stratigraphic units (I—VI) discussed in the text.

Fig. 6. Multi-proxy record of the Wahalah palaeolake sequence. The graphs are divided into the stratigraphic units (I—VI) discussed in the text 2005; Yizhaq et al., 2009). Reduced detrital input is also inferred by below average Al, Fe, and Ti values, which correspond to the abundance of quartz, feldspars and sheet silicates, all of which are common components of the dune sands in the northern Emirates (El-Sayed, 1999; Garzanti et al., 2003; Farrant et al., 2012, 2015). It is proposed that these minerals are largely inert with respect to the lake system and thus can also be used to monitor stability in the Low ylf values imply that the landscape remained generally stable between ~8.5 and 7.7 ka cal. BP. In this study ylf is used as a proxy for stability in the surrounding dune-fields, with values primarily controlled by the accretion of Fe-rich quartz during pe- riods of dune remobilisation (Parker et al., 2006; Preston et al., 2012), and may in turn be linked to variations in vegetation cover, precipitation, sediment supply and/or wind strength (Tsoar,

Age (ka) Fig. 8. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) ages from selected sites in southeast Arabia for the past 20 ka (See Fig. 1 for the ___location and original reference of each site). The ages obtained from UAE06-1 and UAE06-2 by Atkinson et al. (2011) are highlighted.

Fig. 9. Comparison of the archaeological and palaeoclimate data, showing phases of aridity identified in the Hoti Cave record (black stars): (a) Awafi Fe data (Preston et al., 2012), (b) Wahalah Fe data (this study), (c) Hoti Cave 8!80 record (Fleitmann et al., 2007), (d) and (e) probability density function (PDF) plots of calibrated radiocarbon dates from archaeological contexts, (d) is based on 31 radiocarbon ages from interior sites and (e) is based on 50 radiocarbon ages from archaeological sites along the Arabian Gulf coast. Non- marine ages have been re-calibrated using Calib 7.0.2 and the IntCal09 data set (Reimer et al., 2009). Ages based on marine shells were corrected for the Arabian Gulf marine reservoir effect using the AR value of 180 + 53 (Southon et al., 2002), and calibrated using the Marine04 data set (Reimer et al., 2009). Each radiocarbon date is represented by a peak in the PDF curve, with the relative width of each determined by the error of the age estimate. The height of the curve is determined by the number of overlapping age estimates, with higher values reflecting a greater number of similar radiocarbon ages.

Details of the Wahalah lake and dune radiocarbon data from the present investigation. Calibration was carried out using Calib 7.0.2 and the IntCal09 data set (Reimer et al., 2009). 4. Results and interpretation 4.2. Sediment analyses Table 1

Please cite this article in press as: Preston, G.W., et al., A multi-proxy analysis of the Holocene humid phase from the United Arab Emirates ar its implications for southeast Arabia's Neolithic populations, Quaternary International (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.01.054

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Archeological and biological relative sea-level indicators

by Christophe Morhange

2015, Handbook of Sea Level Research

2015, Morhange C., Marriner N., Archeological and biological relative sea-level indicators, chap. 9, in Handbook of Sea Level Research, Shennan I., Long A. J., Dr Benjamin P. Horton B. P. eds, Wiley, pp. 146-156. ISBN: 978-1-118-45258-5.

Fig. 9.1. Frontispiece of the three pillars of the Roman market at Pozzuoli (southern Italy) which have become an icon of uniformitarianism since their publication in Lyell’s Principles of Geology (1830). Lyell argued that the rise and fall of these coastal archeological remains showed that the land had undergone significant vertical movements since Antiquity.

Fig. 9.2. Archeological RSL indicators adapted from Flemming and Webb (1986) (photographs by the authors) organized into three categories from base to top: (1) submerged archeological zone including wrecks and harbor foundations (subtidal); (2) interface structures zone comprising harbor installations (quays, piers, breakwaters, slipways, etc.) and fish tanks (inter- tidal); and (3) emerged structures zone including buildings, tombs, and quarries (supratidal). 148 Part 1: Field Techniques for Sea-Level Reconstruction

level, especially at sites on or close to deltaic sys- tems. Today, it is widely recognized that close interaction between archeologists, geomorpholo- gists, and biologists is needed to obtain the most robust RSL results. In terms of understanding mid-late Holocene coastal environments and archeological contexts in the Mediterranean, RSL modifications are gener- ally a minor agent of change when compared with the important role of sedimentary budgets at base

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Mind the stratigraphic gap: Roman dredging in ancient Mediterranean harbours

by Christophe Morhange

2010

"It is generally speculated that primitive harbour dredging began during the Bronze Age along the Nile, Euphrates, Tigris and Indus rivers1. For the Roman period, Vitruvius gives a few brief accounts of dredging, although direct... more

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The Discovery and Excavation of a Human Burial from the Mini-athiliya Shell Midden in Southern Sri Lanka

by Samanti Kulatilake and

2014, Ancient Asia, Volume 5 (3) pp 1-8

Fig. 1: Sri Lanka and area enlarged with the ___location of Mini-athiliya (image courtesy of Google, 2013).

Fig. 8: Extraction and recording of HMA 6.

Fig. 6: Removal of the burial within a plaster cast with its matrix reinforced by a wooden crate.

Discussion Fig. 9: The skeleton of HMA 6 after excavation and expo- sure.

Table 1: Radiocarbon dates from the Mini-athiliya site: HMA (Hungama Mini-athiliya 2007) compiled by Perera and Kulatilake after M.A. Tamers and D.G. Hood, Beta Analytic Inc., Miami Florida 2009, pers.comm.).

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North Sea palaeogeographical reconstructions for the last 1 Ma

by Kim M Cohen

2014

The landscape evolution of the southern North Sea basin is complex and has left a geographically varying record of marine, lacustrine, fluvial and glacial sedimentation and erosion. Quaternary climatic history, which importantly included... more

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A Comparative Study of the Coastal Geomorphology of Cocos Bay (Manzanilla) and

by Junior Darsan Ph.D.

2005

The process of erosion and accretion taking place along a stretch of coastline is governed by the geology of the area and the direction and strength of the wave attack. The Manzanilla beach is a very dynamic system owing to the open bay... more

FIGURE 1: Map of Trinidad showing study area locations SOURCE: redrawn from www.tntisland.com/tntmap.himl

most. The beach face angles were steeper at Sites | and 3 than at Site 2. Site 3, howeve had the steepest beach face angle of 8.83°.

landwards. At Site 1, there was a period of accretion from May to July with seaward movement of the berm. However, at Sites 2 and 3 from May to June, there was a period of erosion and the berms migrated landwards. From June to July, Site 2 was relatively unchanged but Site 3 accreted seawards of the swash zone.

TABLE 1: Summary of Coastal Processes at Both Beaches

TABLE 3: Summary of Mean Beach Face Angle, Wave Energy, and Wave Steepness at Manzanilla. Relationship between coastal processes and beach morphology

TABLE 5: Summary of Mean Beach Face Angle, Grain Size and Sorting at Manzanilla

TABLE 4: Summary of Mean Beach Face Angle, Wave Energy, and Wave Steepness at Las Cuevas Relationship between sediment characteristics and beach profiles

TABLE 6: Summary of Mean Beach Face Angle Grain Size and Sorting at Las Cuevas results indicate that accretion is taking place at Site 2, which produces a gentler slope in the middle of the Bay. As such, the sediment characteristics appear to be an influential factor affecting the beach profiles at Manzanilla.

TABLE 7: Classification according to the Dissipative-Reflective Beach Continium by Wright and Short (1983)

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Maritime Archaeological and Maritime Cultural Landscapes of Queenscliffe: A Nineteenth Century Australian Coastal Township

by Brad Duncan

2006

Coastal communities have been widely explored by various archaeological researchers, all of whom have applied and developed their own approaches to interpreting landscapes. Despite the diversity of maritime cultural studies worldwide,... more

Coastal communities have been widely explored by various archaeological researchers, all of whom have applied and developed their own approaches to interpreting landscapes. Despite the diversity of maritime cultural studies worldwide, terrestrial and marine areas are still frequently studied in isolation, and the field has yet to develop a uniformly accepted theoretical paradigm to guide research. This thesis explores a new approach that amalgamates key theoretical and methodological aspects of other disparate cultural landscape studies to provide a new way to examine spatial social organisation in maritime communities.

The community of Queenscliff (Victoria) is used to explore the problem of how to understand the archaeology of non-indigenous communities living and working across the land/sea divide. It is argued that maritime communities do not necessarily perceive a discontinuity between marine and terrestrial areas, even though each region may be differentially experienced and participated in. Consequently, to fully understand how a maritime community operates, it is necessary to investigate the complex relationships that exist between mariners and terrestrial-oriented community members, and in particular how each group occupies and utilizes the water and land. To this end, a cultural landscape approach will be developed which allows us to overcome the traditional disciplinary and environmental boundaries of historical and maritime archaeology.

The dissertation investigates a variety of methods for collecting and integrating the disparate documentary, oral and archaeological data sets available to the researcher of the Australian colonial period. In particular it seeks a broader understanding of the archaeological expressions of maritime activity in this community, situated both above and below the waterline. The adoption of a thematic approach to distinguish between maritime industries recognised the disparities/similarities in the way various groups experience and create landscape. Observations of social and practical behaviour were linked to relict material cultural remains through the innovative use of GIS technology that facilitated thematic comparative analysis of multiple incongruent data sets. The subsequent ethno-archaeological observations that linked maritime culture with archaeological sites have great utility in other analogous nautical cultures.

The methodological application of the amalgamated theoretical paradigm using a thematic approach proved successful in the case study area and several key outcomes are addressed. Maritime cultural landscapes are only be accessible by accessing disparate data sources, which varied widely in both their type and availability between maritime themes. Alternative data sets provide significant insights into maritime culture that may not be accessible in traditional documentary sources, and GIS data representation proved to be essential for management and interpretation of the ethno-archaeological interrelationships between thematic landscapes. The cognitive driving mechanisms of several common types of maritime thematic landscapes in Colonial Australia are now better understood, as are their potential data sources and archaeological characterizations. These observations have great utility in other contemporary areas where one or more of the data sets might be missing or incomplete. The successful utility of this approach is dependent upon undertaking manageable levels of thematic investigation, and their subsequent comparative examination. Final analysis of the implications and effectiveness of this new amalgamated methodological approach and theoretical paradigm is used to provide recommendations for future directions in cultural landscape research. The thesis has developed and demonstrated a new methodology that enables wider analysis of behavioural and social aspects of maritime heritage sites within a broad regional framework, has demonstrated the range of themes available for investigation, and outlined new ways of accessing cultural meanings imbued in landscape, to provide better understandings of maritime communities..

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2018, Vacchi M., Ghilardi M., Melis R. T., Spada G., Giaime M., Marriner M., Lorsheid T., Morhange C., Burjachs F., Rovere A., New relative sea-level insights into the isostatic history of the Western Mediterranean, Quaternary Science Reviews, 201, pp. 396-408.

by Christophe Morhange and

A recent suite of Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data for the past 12 ka BP has provided new insights into the sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean region. Our analysis of the chronostratigraphic context of sea-level indicators from... more

Fig. 1. Spatial extent of the study area. Numbered rectangles denote the ___location of sea-level data for this study, grouped into five regions as explained in the text. Tectonic framework of the western Mediterranean. Faults are modified after Faccenna et al. (2014) and Vacchi et al. (2016). The study area encompasses a large portion of the Western Mediterranean basin, at latitudes between ~39.0° N and ~43.0° N and longitudes between ~ —0.5° E and ~10° E (Fig. 1). The area is characterized by a microtidal regime, with tidal ranges typically not exceeding 0.45 m (Tsimplis et al., 1995). The aim of this study is to improve the quality of spatio- temporal sea-level reconstructions along a large portion of the Mediterranean coast of Spain (Catalonia coast, the Balearic Islands

Fig. 2. A) Total plot of the 165 SLIPs used for the RSL reconstructions in the 5 regions. Red SLIPs represent those produced for the present database. Grey SLIPs are those included in the Vacchi et al. (2016) compilation. B) Stacked histogram of the SLIPs showing an increase in the number of SLIPs compared to the Vacchi et al. (2016) compilation. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

Fig. 3. RSL reconstructions in Catalonia (1), the Balearic Islands (2) and Gulf of Valencia (3) regions. The dimensions of boxes (SLIPs) and lines (limiting points) are based o elevation and age errors. Black lines denote the geography of relative sea-level predictions calculated using SELEN and adopting the ICE-6G (VM5a) GIA model (see section 5). P Pego; Va: Valencia; Am: Amenara; Ed: Ebro Delta; Cu: Cubelles; Ll: Llobregat Delta; Em: Empuries, Al: Alcudia; Gr: El Grau.

Fig. 4. RSL reconstructions in northern Corsica (4) and Sardinia (5) regions. The dimensions of boxes (SLIPs) and lines (limiting points) are based on elevation and age errors. Black lines denote the geography of relative sea-level predictions calculated using SELEN and adopting the ICE-6G (VM5a) GIA model (see section 5). Cc: Cap Corse; Cf: Cala Francese; Sc: Scandola; Sl: Sale lagoon; Sa: Sagone; Tg: Tanghiccia; Cv: Cavallo Island; Bs: Bonifacio Strait; Mj: Mignataghja; Ps: Posada; Ca: Capo Caccia; Cl: Cala Liberotto; Or: Gulf of Oristano: Tb: Terralba; At: Sant'Antioco; Mf: Capo Malfatano-Piscinni; Nr: Nora; Cg: Cagliari.

Fig. 5. A) Top: 4th-order polynomial fits of the Balearics (blue, region 2) and Sardinia (red, region 5) SLIPs. Bottom: Difference between the two fitted RSL curves through time, in metres. B) GIA sea-level fingerprints for 2040—2050 relative to 1990—2000 in the Mediterranean Sea (modified from Galassi and Spada, 2014). Predictions were obtained by SELEN (Spada and Stocchi, 2007), using models ICE-5G (VM2) (a, Peltier, 2004) and KL05 (b, Lambeck et al., 1998, Lambeck and Purcell, 2005). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

Table 1 same datum; i.e. MSL in our analysis. biological and archaeological SLIPs already present in previous RSL reconstructions for the area (Lambeck et al., 2011; Vacchi et al., 2016). The total vertical uncertainty on RSL; is mainly represented by the indicative range and by the elevation error (Shennan and Horton, 2002). In the database presented here, the latter range from +0.05 m for sample altitudes measured using high-precision survey methods (e.g., differential GPS) to +0.5m when the alti- tude was estimated using Digital Elevation Models, such as the sites of Torregrande and Posada in Sardinia (Melis et al., 2017, 2018).

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Early Environments and Archaeology of Coastal British Columbia (Mackie et al. 2011)

by Quentin Mackie and

Mackie, Quentin, Daryl W. Fedje, Duncan McLaren, Nicole Smith and Iain McKechnie (2011). In Trekking the Shore: Changing Coastlines and the Antiquity of Coastal Settlement, edited by N. F. Bicho, J. A. Haws and L. G. Davis, pp. 51–103, Springer, New York.

Coastal British Columbia is largely a rugged fjord-land archipelago. It has not always been so – over time, the coastline has changed configuration dramatically and the fauna and flora have seen multiple successions and extirpations.... more

Fig. 3.1 Selected BC sea-level histories South Salish Sea (Fedje et al. 2009), Prince Rupert and Southern Haida Gwaii (Fedje et al. 2005b), Dundas Islands (McLaren 2008)

Fig. 3.2 Use of Livingstone core sampler from canoe-based platform, 2001. Sediment cores provide a number of palaeoenvironmental proxies, including vegetation, climate, and sea-level history. Q. Mackie photo

Fig. 3.3. Image of topography and bathymetry of the north coast of British Columbia at ca. 12,000-9,400 RCYBP (a-c) and detail of southern Juan Perez Sound at 11,500 RCYBP (d) com- bining high-resolution multi-beam image with conventional terrestrial and hydrographic data. The image shows palaeo-river channels and associated fluvial features (terraces, gravel bars, deltas, and lake basins) as well as geological features such as drumlins and eskers. Images prepared by Patrick Bartier and Daryl Fedje of Parks Canada

Fig. 3.5 (a) Image of modern topography and bathymetry of Barkley Sound and (b) Late Pleistocene shoreline at 11,000 RCYBP when relative sea level was 46 m below modern for a period of 2,000 years. Dashed line outlines the modern shoreline (images obtained with permission from A. Dallimore, Royal Roads University) Until recently, late Pleistocene sea-level histories for western Vancouver Island had been poorly constrained temporally and spatially. However, recent work has provided a significantly refined perspective on the sea-level history and coastal morphology for this period. Before 12,000 RCYBP, sea levels for central western Vancouver Island were more than 21 m above modern (Gutsell et al. 2004) and rapidly fell to 46 m below modern at 12,000 RCYBP (Dallimore et al. 2008). Sea level stayed more or less stable for approximately 2,000 years, then rose rapidly to near modern at about 6,500 RCYBP and to the mid-Holocene high stand of about 4 m above modern (Friele and Hutchinson 1993). This dramatic fluctuation is illus- trated in Fig. 3.5. The observed period of sea-level stability between 12,000 and 10,000 RCYBP provides a welcome framework for investigating the potential pres- ence of late Pleistocene archaeological sites. Combined with high-resolution sea floor mapping, areas with potential for archaeological deposits can be identified and targeted for underwater sampling. Particularly interesting landforms for inves- tigation are level landforms near protected shorelines and along travel corridors such as drowned river terraces and palaeo deltas (Fig. 3.6). Areas with little lateral distance to modern and ancient shorelines also have the potential for occupation on constrained, stable, flat areas above the mid-Holocene marine high stand, such as bluff-edges. Such places would have been attractive at many different sea levels. However, no archaeological sites have currently been identified on western Vancouver Island which date to before 5,000 RCYBP. This is not surprising as palaeo-shorelines dating between 12,000 and 6,000 RCYBP are drowned at depths to ca. 46 m below modern and there has been no subtidal testing nor systematic testing of elevated bluffs.

Fig. 3.6 Multibeam image showing high resolution bathymetry of the palaeo-river and palaeo-delta in Effingham Inlet dating to the sea level low stand of —45 m between 12,000 and 10,000 RCYBP. Image obtained with permission from A. Dallimore, Royal Roads University

Fig. 3.8 Plant macrofossils dating to 12,200 RCYBP recovered from a drowned forest soil now 143 m below sea level in Juan Perez Sound, southeast Haida Gwaii: (a) willow twigs and pine cones, (b) cow parsnip fruit, (¢) willow buds, and (d) pine cone and needles. R. Mathewes image Fig. 3.7 IKU sampling (a) and intact terrestrial soils overlain by recent marine sediments (b — dark matrix to right of arrow) recovered from 143 m water depth in Juan Perez Sound. An outer tree ring from a rooted lodgepole pine stump and a willow twig from the associated soil were both dated to 12,200 RCYBP. J. McSporran photos

Josenhans 2000; Lacourse et al. 2003), and numerous other drowned soils were discovered using the IKU dredge (Fig. 3.7), producing a diverse record of plant mac- rofossils (Fig. 3.8). Spruce was present on the outer north coast by 11,500 and closed spruce forests had become established by ca. 11,000 RCYBP. During Younger Dryas-age time, there appears to have been a shift to a cooler and more open climate- vegetation regime (Lacourse and Mathewes 2005). After 10,000 RCYBP, the climate ameliorated and closed mixed conifer forests expanded and rose to elevations signifi- cantly higher than modern (Lacourse et al. 2005; Pellatt and Mathewes 1997).

Early post-glacial archaeological faunal assemblages are rare, but it is noteworth’ that a fully developed maritime adaptation is evident from the 9,450 RCYBP Kilg: Gwaay site in southern Haida Gwaii (Fedje et al. 2005c). The Kilgii Gwaa’ fauna is dominated by marine fish (15 species), birds (12 species), and mammal (5 species). Black bear is the only non-maritime mammal and the few birds that ar not fully marine are migratory species (ducks, geese), and raven. At Richardso: Island, 17 taxa of fish are known from highly fragmented, calcined hearth remains mostly dating to before 9,100 RCYBP; rockfish, salmon, herring, dogfish, sculpin and a variety of other minor taxa from diverse environments are present, attestin to a productive and diverse marine ecosystem (Steffen 2006). Over 3.000 salmonid remains have heen recovered from Gaadu Din 1 Cave

Fig. 3.10 Locations of archaeological sites and regions referred to in text

Fig. 3.12 Artefacts from Kilgii Gwaay site: discoidal cores (a, b), unifaces (c, d), braided twine (e), wrapped withes (f), and wooden wedge (g). Illustrations by J. Cohen (a), J. McSporran (b—d), D. Fedje (e-g)

Fig. 3.15 Dundas Islands Sea level curve based on palaeoenvironmental proxy indicators from lake, peat cores and archaeological samples (modified from McLaren 2008) ‘esults from the Dundas Islands being closer to the Cordilleran Ice sheet: whereas Haida Gwaii was isostatically forebulged upwards during the late Pleistocene, thus accounting for the lower relative sea levels, the mainland to the east was isostatically Jepressed, thus raising relative late Pleistocene sea level (Barrie and Conway 2002; Clague 1984; Fedje et al. 2005b; Hetherington et al. 2004). The Dundas Islands, partway between these two areas, is situated in a type of sea level “hinge” where it was hypothesized that limited sea level change occurred during the late Pleistocene Fedje et al. 2004b; McLaren 2008). A research programme employing isolation lake basin and peat coring was employed on the Dundas Islands to test the possibility hat this area was like a sea level hinge (Fedje et al. 2004b; McLaren 2008). Based on biostratigraphic changes in diatom frequencies and supporting proxy indicators, his research resulted in the identification of a gentle regression in sea level from 13 m above sea level to present sea level since 12,385 RCYBP (Fig. 3.15). Selected areas within the archipelago were chosen for the creation of high- esolution (2-m contour interval) topographic maps, derived from existing aerial yshatncranhy Thic relatively chean method allawed the cea_level curve tn he

Fig. 3.16 Lidar-derived bare earth model of Argonaut Hill and environs. Lidar image from Terra Thin Aare

Table 3.1 Shoreline position relative to modern for select locations

Table 3.3. The probability of encountering submerged archaeological deposits using a 50x 100-cm IKU grab sampling device based on known intertidal sites in southern Haida Gwaii (ca. 9,500 RCYBP) 16.4 grab samples. These figures neither take into account the vertical penetration of the IKU, which may be up to | m in ideal conditions, nor does it take into account several other features of these sites. At Kilgii Gwaay, a large area of the central site is the surface of an ancient pond on which very few artefacts were found, meaning grabs accurately targeted to this central area would almost cer- tainly be negative. At both Kilgii and Collison, significant portions of the site, including some of the most artefact-rich, are covered by very large cobbles and small boulders, which would defeat the IKU by defeating closure of the bucket, preventing retrieval of fine sediments and associated artefacts. These conditions might well be shared by drowned sites as well. Drowned sites may also be covered with marine sediments of unknown depth, which would reduce the efficacy of the grab sampling programme. For example, of the ca. 100 IKU tests in Juan Perez Sound, over one half of the tests recovered only marine sediment or a single cob- ble that prevented closure of the bucket. Furthermore, with increasing depths, the accuracy of the IKU drop can vary within uncertain limits — while the ship can be positioned accurately to a few metres relative to the seafloor potential model, cur- rents and dredge bucket “flutter” means that the actual accuracy of the bucket on the bottom may be on the order of a 10 m radius. All things considered, while crude, our calculations suggest that, at best, an order of 5-10 grab samples per submarine target is probably necessary to have a statistically likely chance of recovering artefacts. This translates into approximately 10-20 grab sample attempts, and thus one half to one day of ship time per target. On other continental shelves, such as the North Sea, Australia, and the Gulf of Mexico, archaeologists have created more systematic models of site survivorship

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Shoreline changes and morphology of spits along southern Karnataka, west coast of India: A remote sensing and statistics-based approach

by Dr-Avinash Kumar

2010

""The changes in shoreline positions and morphology of spits along the Karnataka coast, western India, are investigated for the period from 1910 to 2005 using multi-dated satellite images and topomaps. The study area has been divided into... more

Fig. 2. Flow chart showing various steps of methodology adopted in this study.

‘ig. 3. Bathymetry of the nearshore region along the southern Karnataka coast (source: GEBCO) (a); 3-D map view of morphological variations in the nearshore region of the stu rea (b). Rate of change in coastal landforms and shoreline position is important in development of setback planning, hazard zoning, erosion-accretion aspects, sediment budgeting, and conceptual/ predictive modeling of coastal morphodynamics (Sherman and Bauer, 1993; Al Bakri, 1996; Zuzek et al., 2003). These aspects form as basis for conceptual morphodynamic models. Rate of change of shoreline position and spit migration are estimated employing various conventional techniques viz., end point rate (Fenster et al., 1993), average rates, linear regression, and jack-knifing (Dolan et al., 1991), but are always subjected to uncertainty because of inherent errors and deficiencies in the model used to evaluate the historical shoreline position. These techniques have inherent errors due to inaccuracy in shoreline estimation, variability of shoreline posi- The study area — a part of coastal zone of Karnataka State, India — extends for about 50 km and lies between 12°45’-13°10’ N latitude and 74°44'-74°55’ E longitude (Fig. 1). The coast is characterised by long, narrow and straight open sandy beaches, spectacular spits,

Fig. 4. Linear regression analysis obtained by plotting time versus amount of shoreline shift for transects Tr1.17 and Tr2.5 of littoral cells LC-I and LC-II respectively with respect to 1910 shoreline position. Tr1.17 shows recession by typical negative-trends within the confidence limits of 95% (a), whereas Tr2.5 shows progradation by positive linear trends within the 95% confidence limits (b).

Fig. 5. Showing the periodical changes in shoreline positions between 1910 and 2005 (i.e., 1910-1967, 1967-1983, 1983-1997, 1997-2001 and 2001-2005). (a) Shoreline changes along transects (Tr1.1-Tr1.18) of LC-I; (b) along transects (Tr2.1-Tr2.17) of LC-II; (c) along transects (Tr3.1-Tr3.34) of LC-III; and (d) along transects (Tr4.1-Tr4.19) of LC-IV.

Fig. 6. Rate of change in beach width (m/year) at each transect of all the four littoral cells. Anomalous values of accretion/erosion rates (>0.75 m/year) are associated with transects near to breakwaters, spits and inlets.

Fig. 8. Morphological changes of the Ullal and Bengre spits (a), and Sasihitlu and Hejamadi Kodi spits (b) during the periods between 1910 and 2005 are shown in different line patterns. See Figs. 10 and 11 for details of morphological changes in different years.

Fig. 12. Annual average rainfall for the last 105-years (1901-2005) along the Karnataka coast, western India. (Source: Drought Monitoring Cell, Bangalore)

Details of satellite data, tidal condition at the time of satellite pass, sea-level changes, and shoreline shifts at different locations in the study area. Table 1

Calculated shoreline change rates (m/year), coefficient of determination values (R7), cross-validated RMS error (for 9- and 23-years), future predicted shoreline positions and geomorphological feature of each littoral cell and transect.

N is total number of transects considered for individual periods. * Negative sign indicates erosion. Littoral cell-wise and in-total statistical summary of shoreline changes in the study area. Table 3

* Negative sign indicates net erosion. Variations in areal extents of spits near mouths of the N-G and M-P rivers in the study area during 1910-2005. Table 4

Rate of change in length, area and coefficients of determination of spits during 1910- 2005 (with 1910 as base year). Values in parenthesis represent the changes with respect to 1967 as base year.

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Jaffa’s Ancient Inland Harbor: Historical, Cartographic, and Geomorphological Data

by Aaron A Burke and

2017, The History and Archaeology of Jaffa 2

Burke, Aaron A., Shelley Wachsmann, Simona Avnaim-Katav, Richard K. Dunn, Krister Kowalski, George A. Pierce, and Martin Peilstöcker. 2017. Jaffa’s Ancient Inland Harbor: Historical, Cartographic, and Geomorphological Data. In The History... more

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Tsunamis in the geological record: Making waves with a cautionary tale from the Mediterranean

by Christophe Morhange and

From 2000 to 2015, tsunamis and storms killed more than 430,000 people worldwide and affected a further >530 million, with total damages exceeding US$970 billion. These alarming trends, underscored by the tragic events of the 2004 Indian... more

Fig. 1. Costs and deaths associated with storms (left) and tsunamis (right) between 1900 and 2015, based on the EM-DAT disaster database. The data dem- onstrate that tsunamis are rare and unpredictable natural hazards but that, cumulatively, storms are deadlier and more costly. The threat of storms and tsunami hazards has been aggravated by global change and sea-level rise, particularly in densely populated coastal areas, which presently account for ~40% of the world’s population (8). In particular, low-lying coastal areas are experiencing rapid and disproportionate demographic growth in comparison to the global average, driven notably by the importance of their natural resources and ocean-related recreation.

Fig. 2. Occurrence of storm events and related mortality for the period 1900-2015. The data were analyzed using a Loess smoothing (with bootstrap anc smoothing of 0.05) and a sinusoidal regression model (phase Free) to detect the periodicity associated with the extreme events. The algorithm used in the mode is a “LOWESS"” (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing), with a bootstrap that estimates a 95% confidence band (based on 999 random replicates). The sinusoida regression was used to model periodicities in the time series generated by the Loess smoothing. The “total deaths per year” signal was further investigated using < wavelet transform with Morlet as the basis function. The scalograms are shown as periods on a linear age scale.

Fig. 3. Location of sites and references used in this study. It is striking that the main phases of increased tsunami events in the Mediterranean fit tightly with periods of mid- and late Holocene cooling in the Northern Hemisphere (48-50). Specifically, our data fol- low the trajectory of North Atlantic climate cycles, with periods of heightened and prolonged tsunami activity corresponding to increased drift-ice transport in addition to windier and stormier conditions in the North Atlantic (51), eastern North America (52), and northwestern (NW) Europe (49). Furthermore, the deteriorating climate regime may have been amplified by reduced North Atlantic Deep Water for- mation that was concurrent with several of these cooling events (53). Significantly, we find that 90% (n = 123) of the sedimentary events interpreted as tsunamis share chronological intercepts with periods of heightened storm activity in the Mediterranean (Fig. 4). There is also significant overlap with periods of storm activity in NW Europe (49). These patterns lead us to suggest that most of the geological events previously interpreted as tsunamis could instead be attributed to periods of more intense storm activity. Because chronological overlap is not an unequivocal argument to exclude tsunami origins, we further tested this hypothesis by investigating periodicities in the historical tsunami data (figs. S2 and $3) (35). In contrast to the strat- igraphic tsunami data, the spectral, REDFIT, and wavelet analyses of the historical data present no statistically significant cycles. One further possibility when assessing these data is that climate cooling favored the generation of meteotsunamis (oceanic waves with tsunami-like charac- teristics but are meteorological in origin), which are known to occur in the Mediterranean [for example, see previous studies (54—-57)]. Al- though this is challenging to test based on the available chronostrati- graphic data, it is important to note that meteotsunamis are much less energetic than their seismic counterparts. Meteotsunamis are therefore always local, whereas seismic tsunamis can have basin-wide effects. A large meteotsunami, or one that would have the potential to leave a sedimentary record, is the result of a combination of several Cluster analyses differentiate three previously undocumented tsunami peak-and-trough couplets between 4500 cal. yr B.P. and pre- sent, with roughly 1500-year (+100 years) spacing between peaks

Fig. 4. Temporal distribution of high-energy events interpreted as tsunamis, grouped geographically from the Eastern to Western Mediterranean. The lower histogram plots tsunami frequency at regular 25-year intervals. The blue line denotes the 1500-year sinusoidal filter fitted to these data (phase = Free; r = 0.839). The list of references and their locations is provided in Materials and Methods. Mediterranean (27) and NW European (49) storm periods are also indicated.

Fig. 6. Histogram of tsunami events at 25-year intervals, where overlapping events from the same record were attributed a score of “1” (presence) or “0” (absence). The data have been fitted using a 1500-year sinusoidal filter (in dark blue; phase = Free; r = 0.798). The more minor peaks linked to Mediterranean storm phases [in light blue; (27)] are more clearly defined.

Fig. 7. Long-term trends in tsunami events, North Atlantic storminess, eastern Mediterranean speleothem data, and NW Mediterranean storminess. Sinus- oidal regressions (fitted to a 1500-year filter) underscore the periodicity defining the long-term trends in tsunami frequency compared to proxies for North Atlantic and Mediterranean cooling and storm conditions in the NW Mediterranean. The filtered signals were correlated using cross-correlations (P < 0.05). The cross-correlations assess the time alignment of two time series by means of the correlation coefficient. The series have been cross-correlated to ascertain the best temporal match and the potential lag between two selected variables. The correlation coefficient was then plotted as a function of the alignment position. Positive and negative correlation coefficients are considered, focusing on the lago value (with +0.50 and —0.50 as significant thresholds). This new meta-analysis of sedimentary tsunami data from the Mediterranean shows strong evidence for a 1500-year periodicity that presents robust statistical correlations with markers of climate cooling and deterioration in both the Mediterranean and North Atlantic (60). By analogy with the correlations and prolonged temporal overlaps with Mediterranean and North Atlantic Holocene storm phases, we suggest that up to 90% of tsunami attributions of high-energy events in the Mediterranean’s coastal record should be reconsidered. This relationship has significant implications for appropriately tailored hazard strategies in densely populated seaboard areas, in addition to more general-scale geomorphological coastal processes and dynam- ics. Specifically, our findings invite closer and more robust scrutiny of tsunami events, including greater proxy analysis, in future studies of coastal archives.

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Geomorphological changes of The Rosetta mouth, Nile Delta coast, Egypt during 20th century

by Magdy Torab

Most of the world's deltas mouths have become unstable during last century. This is because of the modern climatic changes as well as tectonic subsidence, but in case of The Nile Delta coast there is another effective reason; that is... more

Fig.1: Location of the study area 1.2. Objective:

Fig.2: Morphological changes of Rosetta mouth during 20" century (After: Fanos, 1995) mparing morphological changes between 1925 & 2001:

ICESR2013 BOOK OF PROCEEDINGS, International Conference on Environmental Studies and Research July 1-4, 2013 Federal College of Education, Umunze-A nambra State-Nigeria

Fig. 4: Shoreline changes of Rosetta mouth using multi-date satellite images between 1925 & 2004.

ee ee The comparison of the analysis ‘of 1984 and that of 2001 satellite images shows that during this period the eastern side is lost 1480.3 meters (about 1337,4 acres) and the western side lost no more than 251meters (about 100,2 acres). During this period about 57, 7 acres in both eastern and western sides were added by deposition (Fig.6). Comparing morphological changes between 1925, 1984 & 2001:

Fig. 10: Detailed coastline changes between November 2006 & August 2007

Tab1: Annual rates of erosion on both western and eastern sides of Rosetta mouth To recognize the effects of construction of The Aswan High Dam, the eroded distance between 1900 & 1964 has been measured; the results show that the eroded distance before construction the Aswan High Dam was 879 and 1282 meters for the western and eastern sides; its average rate about 13.7 and 20 m/yr. The storage of water Nile started on 1964 at Lake Nasser in the front of the High Dam; it increased the erosion rate between 1964-2006 to 95.3 and 124.8 m/yr (tab.1 & Fig.2).

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Geoarchaeology in the City of Thales – Deciphering Palaeogeographic Changes in the Agora Area of Miletus

by Alexander Herda and

The ancient harbour city of Miletus and its surroundings were affected by major changes in palaeogeography over the past millennia. These changes were due to (a) the progradation of the Büyük Menderes delta, (b) coastal dynamics as... more

1 Palaeogeographic evolution of the Biiyiik Menderes delta and alluvial plain (Miillenhoff [2005]. slightly modified) Marc Miillenhoff, Alexander Herda and Helmut Briickner

Marc Miillenhoff, Alexander Herda and Helmut Briickner portion of the sand represents the Archaic-Classical beach evidenced by rolled ceramic finds dating mainly to the 6"/5" centuries BC. A small fragment (1 cm) with Late Chalcolithic age at 1.10-1.07 m b.s.l. was most likely relocated. Subsequently, clayey silt accumulated in a backbeach environment, indicating the final silting up of the area. The top of the core is anthropogene debris, in the lower part probably mixed with de- posits of the upper beach. These cultural layers date from the Archaic-Classical to the Hellenistic-Roman periods.

1 Radiocarbon dating results. Calibrated ages according to the radiocarbon calibration program Calib5 (Stuiver — Reimer 1993), for marine carbonate a reservoir correction of 402 years was applied. Analyses carried out by Dr. K. van der Borg, Utrecht (Netherlands) cores were then combined to three transects which provide insights into stratigraphy and palaeoecological evolution of the region.

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Sedimen Pantai: Dampak Sedimentasi terhadap Peran Lingkungan Pantai

by Arif Nur Faozi

Oleh: Arif Nuf Faozi H1K014030 Pengertian Sedimen Menurut Pinkin et al. (1977) dalam Siswanto (2007) sedimen didefinisikan sebagai pecahan dari batuan, mineral, atau materi organik yang ditransportasikan dari berbagai tempat dan... more

Oleh: Arif Nuf Faozi H1K014030 Pengertian Sedimen Menurut Pinkin et al. (1977) dalam Siswanto (2007) sedimen didefinisikan sebagai pecahan dari batuan, mineral, atau materi organik yang ditransportasikan dari berbagai tempat dan didepositkan oleh angin, air dan es. Sementara menurut Bates dan Jackson (1987), sedimen adalah material bahan padat, berasal dari batuan yang mengalami proses pelapukan; peluluhan (disintegration); pengangkutan oleh air, angin dan gaya gravitasi; serta pengendapan atau terkumpul oleh proses atau agen alam sehingga membentuk lapisan-lapisan di permukaan bumi yang padat atau tidak terkonsolidasi. Jadi dapat diartikan sedimen laut merupakan hasil dari kikisan batuan atau mineral akibat proses pelapukan kemudian terbawa oleh angin dan air ke laut yang akhirnya mengalami pengendapan di dasar perairan. Hal tersebut dapat diartikan segala suspensi yang terdapat dalam air kecuali zat organik hidup termasuk ke dalam sedimen. Hampir seluruh permukaan dasar perairan laut merupakan endapan sedimen. Untuk memudahkan mengenalinya maka ada beberapa pengelompokan. Salah satu yang mudah yaitu dengan mengelompokkannya berdasarkan ukuran butir sedimen. Hal tersebut bisa dilakukan dengan cara mengambil sampel menggunakan sediman grab untuk sedimen dasar dan Botol nansen (water sampler) untuk sedimen tersuspensi. Dan dipisahkan menggunakan Sieve shaker berdasarkan ukuran (Atmodjo, 2011). Macam-macam sedimen bardasarkan ukuran yaitu pasir, pasir berlumpur dan lumpur (Riniatsih, 2009). Sediman di alam banyak di amati dengan menganalisis ukuran. Sedimen berukuran kecil cenderung melayang-layang dalam air, karena sifatnya yang ringan dan mudah terbawa air (Atmodjo, 2011). Sehingga sedimen ini disebut partikel tersuspendi dan sering menyebabkan perairan keruh. Kekeruhan pada perairan sangat mempengaruhi aktivitas biota di dalamnya, terutama biota yang memerlukan cahaya seperti lamun, terumbu karang, dan algae. Dimana semakin keruh maka akan menghambat cahaya masuk yang menyababkan terhambatnya pertumbuhan biota tersebut akibat proses fotosintesis yang terganggu (Ghufran, 2010; Ghufran, 2011). Namun kita dapat memperoleh informasi kecepatan dan arah arus dengan adanya sedimen tersuspensi, yaitu dengan menggunakan ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler). Sumber Sedimen Sedimen pasir berawal dari material induk berbagai jenis batuan yang berada di daratan sebagai akibat proses pelapukan mekanik seperti hujan, angin, dan lain-lain serta pelapukan kimiawi seperti kelembaban, temperatur, kondisi asam yang menyebabkan batuan induk terpecah menjadi kerikil/kerakal atau terurai menjadi tanah (Friedman, 1978 dalam Setiady dan Darlan, 2012. Komponen batuan yang tahan terhadap pelapukan akan tetap identik dengan batuan induknya dengan ukuran pasir dan lanau. Sementara komponen batuan yang tidak tahan akan terurai menjadi mineral, nutrien, oksida besi dan alumina dengan ukuran yang sangat halus yakni lempung.

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İZMİT KÖRFEZİ KIYILARINDA, KIYI JEOMORFOLOJİSİ-KIYI KULLANIMI İLİŞKİSİNİN COĞRAFİ ANALİZİ

by Murat UZUN

Kıyı alanları, doğal ve beşeri birçok coğrafi faktörün etkisinde olan, gelişen ve değişen bir mekândır. Kıyı alanları geçmişten günümüze, barındırdığı özellikler, çekicilikler ve sağladığı olanaklar bakımından insanların en önemli... more

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DYNAMIQUES GÉOMORPHOLOGIQUES ET TYPOLOGIE GÉOARCHEOLOGIQUE DES PORTS ANTIQUES EN CONTEXTES LAGUNAIRES

by marinella pasquinucci and

Quaternaire, 26, (2), 2015, p. 117-139

GEOMORPHOLOGY AND GEOARCHAEOLOGICAL TYPOLOGY OF ANCIENT HARBOURS IN LAGOONAL CONTEXTS In coastal areas, under a context of relative sea-level stability during the past 6,000 years, one important question relates to the impact of... more

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ANALISIS DEGRADASI PESISIR AKIBAT PENAMBANGAN TIMAH DI PESISIR PANTAI PROVINSI KEPULAUAN BANGKA-BELITUNG

by Ayu Adi Justicea

Degradasi dan kondisi pesisir di Kepulauan Bangka Belitung terancam kerusakan karena semakin maraknya kegiatan penambangan timah diperairan pesisir seperti aktivitas perusahaan tambang timah, TI(Tambang Inkovensional) apung, kapal hisap... more

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Tracking shoreline erosion of " at risk " coastal archaeology: the example of ancient Siraf (Iran, Persian Gulf)

by Christophe Morhange and

2018, Pourkerman M., Marriner N., Morhange C., Djamali M., Amjadi S., Lahijani H., Naderi Beni A., Vacchi M., Tofighian H., Shah-hosseini M., Tracking shoreline erosion of “at risk” coastal archaeology: The example of ancient Siraf (Iran,... more

2018, Pourkerman M., Marriner N., Morhange C., Djamali M., Amjadi S., Lahijani H., Naderi Beni A., Vacchi M., Tofighian H., Shah-hosseini M., Tracking shoreline erosion of “at risk” coastal archaeology: The example of ancient Siraf (Iran, Persian Gulf), Applied geography, 101, pp. 45-55.

Successful heritage management requires a robust comprehension of the threats facing archaeological sites, at both current and future timescales. Siraf, on the Persian Gulf of Iran, is a site of national and international importance whose history stretches back to the Sassanid period (224–652 AD). In the present context of global change (drought and relative sea-level rise) and anthropogenic impacts (coastal artificialization and reduced sediment supply), the city's waterfront archaeology is undergoing significant erosion. Nonetheless, at present, the processes leading to the loss of Siraf's in situ archaeological remains are still poorly understood, including the rates, timing and drivers of coastal erosion. Here we use Landsat images to monitor shoreline changes along the Siraf coastline between 1973 and 2016. We spatially quantify the causes and impacts of surface changes along 244 transects. The results demonstrate that coastal erosion is responsible for widespread and archaeologically significant damage, with 48% of the studied transects showing erosion during the period 1973–2016. We elucidate significant temporal variations in the data and, most notably, demonstrate that continued drought since the early 2000s has impacted upon sediment supply to coastal areas, severely accentuating erosion. For instance, between 2003 and 2016, 70% of transects recorded shoreline retreat with worrying implications for the waterfront archaeology of Siraf. These quantitative results provide invaluable spatial information regarding the causes and impacts of erosion upon Siraf's waterfront heritage, in addition to furnishing a template for the protection of the city's internationally important cultural heritage.

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ARCHAEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORELINES ASSOCIATED WITH ACCOMACK COUNTY AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, VIRGINIA

by Darrin Lowery

This report summarizes the results of an archaeological survey conducted along the Chesapeake Bay shorelines of both Accomack County and Northampton County, Virginia. Accomack and Northampton counties represent the southernmost extension... more

This report summarizes the results of an archaeological survey conducted along the Chesapeake Bay shorelines of both Accomack County and Northampton County, Virginia. Accomack and Northampton counties represent the southernmost extension of the Delmarva Peninsula. The study area encompasses the confluence of the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean. A shoreline survey was conducted along the Chesapeake Bay to gauge the erosion threat to the archaeological resources situated along the shoreline. Archaeological sites along shorelines are subjected to numerous natural processes. Aside from erosion, some of the natural processes influencing shoreline related cultural resources include coastal inundation, prehistoric aeolian processes, bioturbation, recent coastal dune formations, chemical processes within tidal marshes, redeposition, and surface “sheet-erosion” or deflation. These natural processes greatly influence the success of an archaeological survey and what data are collected, noted, and observed while conducting a survey. Summaries associated with these natural processes are presented in this report. The report also offers examples, using Delmarva Peninsula archaeological data, which illustrate how these natural processes influence and limit the interpretive value of single analysis or one-time archaeological survey surface data.
As a “double-blind” test, the actual locations and cultural chronologies associated with previously recognized and recorded sites were not collected prior to the completion of the survey. By not knowing the previous site data, the present shoreline survey would help assess and gauge the accuracy of the previous single “one-time” archaeological survey data. The survey methodology would also gauge and assess the dynamics associated with archaeological sites in coastal settings and how coastal environments influence archaeological survey data. The previous archaeological site data associated with the shoreline study area are presented in the report. The previous site information is compared with the data from the eleven sites relocated during the present study. The results suggest coastal environments and the natural processes associated with these environments greatly influence the data gleaned from single “one-time” archaeological shoreline surveys. Suggestions to alleviate the interpretive limitation problems associated with archaeological resources in coastal settings are also presented.
The present survey located and documented 108 archaeological sites, which span 13,000 years of the region’s prehistory and history. Of these, 97 archaeological sites had not been previously recorded. Recognizing the interpretive limitations associated with sites in coastal settings, a cultural synthesis of the site data cannot be constructed at this time. Limited site data are presented in respect to the presence of non-local lithic materials and marine subsistence information noted at some of the prehistoric archaeological sites. Limited comparisons are made between the prehistoric marine subsistence data from the upper, middle, and lower Chesapeake Bay sections of the Delmarva Peninsula. Suggestions are presented as a means to alleviate the limitations associated with future interpretive cultural synthesis summaries.
The Virginia Eastern Shore shoreline survey has functioned mainly as a guide to cultural resource managers and future researchers. The project suggests that natural processes, not cultural processes, are a major influence in coastal environments. Unfortunately, the degree of site significance and erosional threat cannot be accurately evaluated at this time. With all of the sites documented and degree of erosion reflected along each shoreline, the researcher does not know if one is “at the beginning of the race or at the end”. Obviously, significance and threat are greatly dependent on such unknown data. As a final summary, suggestions are presented as a means to gauge and assess the significance and threat at each site. The report concludes that significance and threat must be evaluated on a site-by-site basis.

Figure 32. Shoreline South of Kiptopeke Pier in Northampton County, Virginia.

Figure 4. Satellite View of the Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Delineating the Virginia Eastern Shore Study Area.

Figure 5. Political Map of the Virginia Eastem Shore with Accomack County and Northampton County Delineated.

Figure 6. Area in Northwest Accomack County with “Carolina Bay” Features Surrounded by Tidal Marsh.

igure 7. Large Middle to Late Holocene Dunes on Savage Neck, Northampton County, Virginia.

Figure 8. Late Pleistocene Image of the Chesapeake Bay (Modified Version of Coast Watch Program 1989).

Figure 9. Early Holocene Image of the Chesapeake Bay (Modified Version of Coast Watch Program 1989).

Figure 10. Middle Holocene Image of the Chesapeake Bay (Modified Version of Coast Watch Program 1989).

Figure 11. Coastal Dune Formations on the Chesapeake Bay Shore, Occohannock Neck, Virginia.

Figure 12. Offshore Barrier Sand Island on the Chesapeake Bay Shore, Church Neck, Northampton County, Virginia.

‘igure 13. Erosive Winter View of a Shoreline Archaeological Site, Talbot County, Maryland.

Figure 15. Augustine Herrman’s 1670 Map of Virginia and Maryland Showing the Virginia Eastern Shore.

Figure 16. Robert Alexander’s 1781 Map of the Delmarva Peninsula Showing the Road Systems on Virginia’s Eastern Shore.

Figure 18. A Section of an 1849 United States Coastal Survey Map (T-270) Illustrating Inundated “Carolina Bay” Features Near Rumbley and Frenchtown, Somerset County, Maryland.

Figure 19. A Section of the 1989 U.S.G.S. 7.5’ Minute MARION Quadrangle Illustratinc the Inundated “Carolina Bay” Features Near Rumbley and Frenchtown, Somerset County, Maryland.

Figure 22. Tree Root Patterns Along Interior Nandua Creek, A ccomack County, Virginia.

Figure 23. Erosion Sections Along the Virginia Eastern Shore.

Figure 24. Generalized Locations of the Archaeological Sites Discovered During the Chesapeake Bay Shoreline Survey of Accomack and Northampton Counties.

Figure 25. Cobble Outcrops (Modified DeLorme Mapping Company 1995: 62

Figure 28. Macro-Chesapeake Bay Prehistoric Midden Refuse Data with Modern Salinity Zone Boundaries (see Lippson and Lippson 1974: 6).

Figure 29. Deeply Buried Early Woodland Archaeological Site Along Savage Neck in Northampton County, Virginia.

Figure 30. Uneroded Inland Side of the Archaeological Site Shown in Figure 29.

Figure 31. Buried A Horizon Exposed Along the Shoreline South of Kiptopeke Pier in Northampton County, Virginia.

Figure 33. Superimposed Buried A Horizons Along the Eroded Shoreline at Butler’s Bluff in Northampton County, Virginia.

Figure 35. Archaeological Site in Wicomico County, Maryland Affected by Severe Sheet Erosion.

Figure 36. Archaeological Site in Talbot County, Maryland Not Affected by Sheet Erosion.

Figure 38. In Situ Projectile Point Within a Gleyed B Horizon at 18TA221b, Talbot County, Maryland.

Figure 39. Herds of Retreating Fiddler Crabs Along a Tidal Marsh Shoreline in Back Creek, Accomack County, Virginia.

Figure 41. Inundated Upland Along Deep Creek in Accomack County, Virginia.

Figure 44. Artifact Movement and Redeposition at the Holland Point Site, Dorchester County, Maryland.

Figure 45. Prevailing Wind Direction, Wave Crest Orientation, and Artifact Movement at the Holland Point Site, Dorchester County, Maryland.

Figure 47. Unassociated Cultural Artifacts as a By-Product of Redeposition in Coastal Environments.

Table 1. Summary of Environmental Changes (after Custer and Mellin 1991)

Table 3. Macro-Chesapeake Bay Prehistoric Midden Refuse Data (see Figure 28)

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Recommandations pour les bonnes pratiques en matière de méthodes d’acquisition de données pour la gestion du patrimoine naturel et culturel des zones humides côtières marocaines

by Athena Trakadas

2018

Recommandations pour les bonnes pratiques en matière
de méthodes d’acquisition de données pour la gestion du
patrimoine naturel et culturel des zones humides
côtières marocaines. CBDAMM Project: Rabat/Esbjerg 97 pp.

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Little Ice Age in the Mediterranean : Foreword

by Christophe Morhange and

Méditerranée n° 122, 2014, pp. 11-13

1 - The Little Ice Age : an ambiguous term 2 - Research on the LIA in the Mediterranean can be articulated around four broad questions: - What are the chronological boundaries for the beginning and the end of the LIA in the... more

The term petit age de glace (PAG) is the literal translation of the English ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA). During the past 20 years, the Little Ice Age has emerged as a topic of major research focus spanning such fields as paleoecology, environmental history and climate history (Fig. 1). Despite its widespread usage, no formal definition exists and the term is characterized by a number of ambiguities. Firstly, the Lit tle Ice Age (LIA) was initially used to describe the late 19 century AD and the glacial floods that impacted the main mountain ranges of both Europe and North America MATTHEWS and for instance, by t BRIFFA, 2005; WOODWORD, 2014). It was only later that the term was extended to encompass a longer period corresponding to a cold phase in Europe and North America, expressed, he expansion of glaciers (LAMBS, 1965; LEROY-LADURIE, 1967). Although the term was initially used to describe a process, it has gradually acquired a chronological meaning, which has posed some difficulties as outlined in the article by HUGHES (this volume). Today, the LIA is used to denote t LAMBS (1965) on The exact onset begins around 12 he cold phase that precedes the onset of global warming beginning in the very ate 19" century. Nonetheless, this shift in meaning to a chronological period has never been formalized and there is no real consensus on the precise time window covered. Early work by the Atlantic emphasized the strong and sharp contrast of this episode with the previous warm phase (referred to as the Medieval Climate Anomaly, MCA, XOPLAKI et al., 2011). of the LIA remains heavily dependent on the indicators used. For instance, it 50 AD if we consider the growth of ice in the Atlantic, towards 1300-1310 AD if one takes into consideration severe winters in Europe (LEROY-LADURIE, 1967, 2004), or even in 1550 AD for the global expansion of glaciers (BRADLEY and JONES, 1995; HUDDART and STOTT, 2010).

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Geoarchaeological investigations at Akko, Israel: New insights into landscape changes and related anchorage locations since the Bronze Age

by Christophe Morhange and

Geoarchaeology. 2018. 1–20. Since the first archaeological excavations undertaken in the 1970s/1980s, Tel Akko is known to have been an important trade city from the early 2nd millennium B.C. onwards. Even if the site has been... more

FIGURE 1 Location of Haifa Bay, on the northern limit of the Nile littoral cell (after Inman, 2003; image CNES) Notes. The rose diagrams show the dominant wind and wave patterns along the coastal margin of Alexandria (Stanley & Bernhardt, 2010) [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 2 Geomorphological map of Haifa Bay Notes. Location of the tells, the shoreline position around 4,000 years B.P., bathymetry and wave rose (measured using a directional buoy in th Haifa area between 1994 and 2005) after Zviely et al. (2006). The shoreline around 3,650 years B.P. (after Porat et al., 2008). [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 3_ Location of the cores, image CNES Notes. Squares A, B, and C correspond to the three areas studied. A corresponds to the southern part of Tel Akko; B to the western part of Tel Akko; and C to the Old City. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 4_Biosedimentology of the core AK-XV-1 Votes. Top: Mollusk species and assemblages. Bottom: Ostracod species and assemblages. The ___location of the core is given in Figure 3. Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE5 _ Biosedimentology of core AK-XV-2 Notes. Ostracod species and assemblages. The ___location of the core is given in Figure 3. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE8_ East-West transect in the southern part of Tel Akko (cores AK 8 and AK 9 after Morhange et al., 2016) Notes. The ___location of the cores is given in Figure 3. [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 10 (AandC) Remains of an active sea coast; Ta, trench a; Tb, trench b; L171, level 171; L179, level 179; L219, level 219; (B) Ceramics found alongside the shell and coral fragments point to the first millennium B.C. (Artzy, 2012) [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 12 Coastline changes and ___location of Tel Akko's ancient harbors through time (adapted from Morhange et al., 2016 Notes. Topography adapted from the Treidel map (1925-1926). [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

FIGURE 13 __Location of ancient structures in the harbor of Akko (after Galili et al., 2010) and possible reconstruction of the harbor limits during the Hellenistic period [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

\BLE2 Published reservoir age dates used to calculate the local reservoir age at Akko gravel (>2 mm), sand (50 wm-2 mm) and silty-clay (smaller than 50 um) fractions, was determined by sieving. Ostracoda were picked from the >160 ym fraction and identified to species level, when possible, using reference manuals (Athersuch, Horne, & Whittaker, 1989; Lachenal, 2000; Meisch, 2000) and scientific papers (e.g., Avnaim-Katav, Agnon, Sivan, & Almogi-Labin, 2016; Frenzel & Boomer, 2005; Ruiz et al., 2010; Salel, Bruneton, & Lefévre, 2016). Macro- fossils larger than 1 mm in size were also identified and assigned to assemblages according to the Mediterranean classification system (D'Angelo & Garguilo, 1978; Doneddu & Trainito, 2010; Poppe & Gotto, 1991, 1991, 1993).

The radiocarbon ages are expressed in calibrated years B.P. and B.C. at the 95% confidence level (2c). b.s., below surface; b.s.I., below present mean sea level; a.s.|., above present mean sea level. Calibration using Calib 7.1. (Stuiver & Reimer, 1993) and the IntCal13 curve (Reimer et al., 2013). TABLE1 AMS-*4Cdata

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