As days grow longer and temperatures rise, Americans are preparing for the rituals of summer: excursions to the beach, lounging by the pool, grilling hamburgers in the backyard with family and friends.
But this year, thanks to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, those summer activities could be more expensive.
A huge share of American imports of summer essentials are from China - including 96 percent of barbecue grills and garden umbrellas, 80 percent of rubber footwear with straps such as flip-flops, and a third of women’s swimsuits.
Americans looking for new gear for a carefree vacation will likely be faced with higher price tags and supply disruptions - even though U.S. and Chinese officials are set to hold trade talks this weekend in Switzerland. Negotiations are likely to be long and difficult, and a potential deal may not come in time to stave off an increase in summer prices.
Some Americans are already reeling at the disruptions, especially on popular Chinese shopping apps like Shein and Temu.
“All I’m trying to do is order these bathing suits fam,” Cassie Medina, a self-described millennial mom from Texas, posted on TikTok last week, covering her face with her hands in exasperation. “Stop with the tariffs! Stop!”
For small Chinese exporters who have built a livelihood around facilitating hot weather fun in the United States, there is widespread confusion and panic.
“We sell to Americans, Americans like it, we make money, and they have a happy holiday,” said Li Xianrong, who runs a factory in Fujian province churning out swimsuits, rash guards and wetsuits for the U.S. and European market.
“Isn’t it killing two birds with one stone? Why should they make everyone feel bad?” asked Li.
The potential summer price bump is just one component of the global economic pain and uncertainty triggered by the trade showdown between Washington and Beijing. Since Trump imposed a minimum 145 percent tariff on all Chinese goods last month, U.S. consumers have dealt with abrupt price spikes and supply chain kinks for products including essential medicines, electronics and cosmetics.
It remains to be seen how these tariffs will feed through into prices in stores and online in the United States. Some larger retailers may have made purchases for this summer season before the tariffs came into effect and be able to absorb the duties.
But shipment disruptions, shortages and higher prices for goods like swim trunks and sandals could be felt as soon as Memorial Day, said Vipe Desai, executive director of the Surf Industry Members Association, a U.S. trade group for surf-related businesses. These issues will only worsen as summer progresses, he said.
“People are going to make some tough choices as to what they are going to spend money on, and to me, that is probably going to be the necessities,” Desai said. “They might say, I’m not gonna buy that surfboard just yet or that wetsuit right now or that board short.”
Swimsuits are a good illustration of China’s dominance in beachy bargains.
Jinjiang, a city of around 2 million people on China’s southeastern coast, produces almost a third of the world’s swimwear, according to provincial government data. Over the last decade, the city has transformed itself into a one-stop shop for the swimwear industry, with fabric supply, machinery and design all within Jinjiang’s confines.
The city also hosts a “swimwear carnival,” which includes a fashion show, design competition and seafood festival.
Jinjiang is not even the only swimwear capital in China. The city of Xingcheng on China’s northeastern coast makes one quarter of all swimsuits sold globally, according to state media. It even boasts a television series set in the city - “The Swimsuit Saga” - which follows the travails of bikini entrepreneurs.
The tariffs now threaten these cities’ way of life. Hong Zifeng, secretary general of Jinjiang Swimsuit Industry Association, said that he has attended several crisis meetings since the trade war’s outset, and factories that rely on U.S. orders have fallen into “semi-paralysis.”
Many exporters, he added, are looking for creative ways to continue selling one-pieces and board shorts to American beachgoers.
“Of course, no one wants to quit such a big market as America if we can help it, and American brands still want to buy from us,” Hong said. “So we are thinking, maybe we should shift the business model, and try to take a detour by sending our products to a third country before shipping to the U.S.”
Other exporters in Jinjiang, however, have started to consider the unthinkable: giving up on the fickle U.S. market altogether.
Hong Jianku, whose swimwear ends up on the racks at fast fashion giants like the Spanish-owned chain Zara and retailers including Walmart and Macy’s, said that he has already started diversifying his exports to focus on Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia to “insulate myself from Trump’s bullets,” he said. Now, U.S. orders make up less than 7 percent of his business.
“I’m a small-business man and don’t know much about geopolitics,” Hong said. “If the U.S. doesn’t want my stuff, then I will go find other buyers.” He added that he already shipped many of his U.S. orders for this summer.
Even in Yiwu - an export hub in Zhejiang province home to the world’s largest wholesale market - some small businesses are forsaking the world’s biggest economy.
Wu Juan, the chief executive of a Yiwu shoe factory, said she rejected an order for 5,000 pairs of sandals from the U.S. last month. “I told them, ‘It’s not easy doing business with your country.’”
The trade war’s summer shopping shock won’t be limited to bikinis and flip-flops. Anyone hoping to buy a new barbecue grill or garden umbrella for backyard get-togethers will likely be faced with a higher price tag.
Exporters of these products describe halted shipments, stalled production lines and frustrating uncertainty.
“Right now, our business is stopped,” Lisa Xu, sales manager at Smartjoy Outdoor Living, a firepit and grill manufacturer which sells 80 percent of its merchandise to the United States. “We cannot do anything - we are waiting.”
The increasingly popular alternative to buying in-store has also been largely cut off as a result of the trade war. The Trump administration on May 2 officially eliminated a tax loophole called the “de minimis” exemption, which allowed Chinese e-commerce sellers on Shein and Temu to send packages worth less than $800 to the U.S. duty-free.
This means that Americans who were planning on stocking up on cheap summer dresses and sunglasses through these platforms may also face price hikes - if they can get the products at all. On the same day the change came into effect, Temu announced it was radically changing its business model and moving to a “local fulfillment model,” with U.S. orders handled by U.S. sellers.
Hong, from the Jinjiang Swimsuit Industry Association, said that many of the city’s manufacturers are already experiencing a sharp decrease in orders through these apps. Some are considering lowering prices or sending goods through third countries.
This process, called “transshipment,” is designed to mask the origin of the products, often passing them off as made in Southeast Asian countries.
Still, many Chinese exporters are trying to maintain a sunny attitude.
The U.S.-China trade talks this weekend come after both Washington and Beijing have recently softened their tone on tariffs, and they provide an opportunity for the superpowers to de-escalate.
“If decoupling is not what China and the U.S. want, then I’m hoping we’ll see more positive signs in May or June, so that we still have confidence to sign contracts for next year,” said Li, the Fujian swimsuit manufacturer. “We are still working on designs for the next season.”
For Americans, the summer might not mark the end of higher prices and supply chain disruptions, even if Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping successfully strike a trade deal.
Desai, from the Surf Industry Members Association, pointed out that big U.S. retailers should already be making orders for the back-to-school and holiday season. The virtual trade embargo between the U.S. and China makes that preparation much trickier.
“Memorial [Day] weekend is really when the first little snowball will start and then it will just continue on, through back to school, the winter holiday,” he said. “At this point, the damage has been done.”
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Data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity and the United States International Trade Commission.
Artur Galocha, Luis Melgar and Kevin Schaul contributed to this report.