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<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/johnseb/2945507732/">John Seb Barber on Flickr</a>
We've got to admit it — we were right!
Back in July , we took a list of the largest European banks by assets and compared their market cap, common equity, and total exposure to PIIGS debt (thank you for the bank statistics, EBA!). Then we calculated exposure to PIIGS debt (sovereign and private) as a percentage of the banks' common equity. (Notice that HSBC, ING, and even Societe Generale are all absent from this list.)
Based on our list of exposures, Dexia was the most vulnerable bank outside of the PIIGS , regardless of the fact that it actually passed the stress tests according to EBA criteria. It fell at #10 on our list.
Since Dexia just got bailed out , we have to say we're not surprised it was the first non-peripheral bank to fall.
If the eurozone crisis continues to escalate, we will see more and more banks bow to the pressure of exposure and become unable to borrow money. Next on our list (calculated based on exposure/common equity) would be Commerzbank, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank, all with exposure greater than 325% of GDP.
The worst 20 cutoff for our test ended up being exposure equal to about 175% of common equity, but it really gets out of control once you get to the PIIGS banks (#1-9). But Dexia's fall suggests that bank vulnerability is already seeping beyond the periphery into the core (#10-20).
#20 - Royal Bank of Scotland Group (UK)
elliot brown on Flickr
PIIGS Exposure: $146.42 billion
Market Cap: $60.96 billion
Common Equity: $83.58 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 175%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#19 - Landesbank Berlin (Germany)
www.lbb.de
PIIGS Exposure: $13.11 billion
Market Cap: $5.60 billion
Common Equity: $7.31 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 179%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#18 - Barclays (UK)
barclays.com
PIIGS Exposure: $123.51 billion
Market Cap: $43.91 billion
Common Equity: $65.510 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 189%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#17 - Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (Germany)
lbbw.de
PIIGS Exposure: $32.05 billion
Market Cap: $11.27 billion
Common Equity: $13.94 billion
Exposure as % of Common Debt: 230%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Google Finance (market cap)
#16 - DZ Bank (Germany)
Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $24.69 billion
Common Equity: $10.34 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 239%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Google Finance (market cap)
#15 - KBC Bank (Belgium)
HENRY CLARK on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $39.70 billion
Market Cap: $9.05 billion
Common Equity: $16.09 billion
Exposure as % of Equity: 247%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and NYSE Euronext (market cap)
#14 - Credit Agricole (France)
Michiel1972 on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $192.06 billion
Market Cap: $29.97 billion
Common Equity: $65.50 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 293%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#13 - Deutsche Bank (Germany)
db.com
PIIGS Exposure: $140.61 billion
Market Cap: $49.73 billion
Common Equity: $43.02 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 327%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#12 - BNP Paribas (France)
Ethos on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $280.96 billion
Market Cap: $79.91 billion
Common Equity: $78.43 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 358%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#11 - Commerzbank (Germany)
commerzbank.com
PIIGS Exposure: $67.38 billion
Market Cap: $18.45 billion
Common Equity: $14.60 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 462%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#10 - Dexia (Belgium)
Wikimedia
PIIGS Exposure: $132.95 billion
Market Cap: $5.229 billion
Common Equity: $10.34 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 552%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#9 - Banco Santander (Spain)
Fabienamnet on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $567.20 billion
Market Cap: $92.08 billion
Common Equity: $59.51 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 953%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#8 - Unicredit (Italy)
Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $541.54 billion
Market Cap: $34.41 billion
Common Equity: $50.59 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,070%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#7 - Bank of Ireland (Ireland)
Ardfern on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $102.43 billion
Market Cap: $1.39 billion
Common Equity: $7.40 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,385%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#6 - BBVA (Spain)
zarateman on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $552.90 billion
Market Cap: $52.80 billion
Common Equity: $35.39 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,566%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#5 - EFG Eurobank Ergasias (Greece)
Eurobank.gr
PIIGS Exposure: $76.01 billion
Market Cap: $2.07 billion
Common Equity: $4.74 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,601%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#4 - Intesa Sanpaolo Group (Italy)
IntesaSanpaolo.com
PIIGS Exposure: $607.03 billion
Market Cap: $51.06 billion
Common Equity: $37.07 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,638%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#3 - Banco Popular Español (Spain)
javierme on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS
Exposure: $182.94 billion
Market Cap: $6.91 billion
Common Equity: $9.49 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 1,927%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#2 - Banca MPS (Italy)
mps.it
PIIGS Exposure: $290.98 billion
Market Cap: $7.96 billion
Common Equity: $6.24 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 4,666%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
#1 - Allied Irish Banks (Ireland)
Andrew Curtis on Wikimedia Commons
PIIGS Exposure: $129.02 billion
Market Cap: $2.00 billion
Common Equity: $0.387 billion
Exposure as % of Common Equity: 33,352%
Source: EBA Stress Tests (exposure and common equity) and Bloomberg (market cap)
Which country will go down first?
AP
