Scribd
Upload
266 views

Ethiopia Case Companion Spreadsheet

The document projects financial forecasts for three Ethiopian companies - CareCo, ShoeCo, and MedCo - under local manufacturing strategies in Ethiopia from 2015-2025. CareCo is projected to have positive cash flows starting in 2022 and a payback period of 4 years for local manufacturing. ShoeCo's payback period is estimated at 3.2 years, with positive cash flows beginning in 2020. MedCo's payback period is projected to be 7.8 years, with breakeven in 2019 and positive cash flows thereafter. All three companies are expected to have profitable operations in Ethiopia by pursuing local manufacturing.

Uploaded by

Kwaku Daniel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
266 views

Ethiopia Case Companion Spreadsheet

The document projects financial forecasts for three Ethiopian companies - CareCo, ShoeCo, and MedCo - under local manufacturing strategies in Ethiopia from 2015-2025. CareCo is projected to have positive cash flows starting in 2022 and a payback period of 4 years for local manufacturing. ShoeCo's payback period is estimated at 3.2 years, with positive cash flows beginning in 2020. MedCo's payback period is projected to be 7.8 years, with breakeven in 2019 and positive cash flows thereafter. All three companies are expected to have profitable operations in Ethiopia by pursuing local manufacturing.

Uploaded by

Kwaku Daniel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 1

Ethiopia: An Emerging Market Opportunity - Projections for CareCo, ShoeCo, MedCo

Instructions: Adjust assumptions by changing the italicized cells


* All figures in millions of USD (2015)
* Growth rates are in real terms
2015
*

CareCo
Local manufacturing strategy
Addressable market
Market growth rate
CareCo market share
Revenues, Ethiopia sales
Gross margin %
Gross profit, Ethiopia sales
Fixed costs
Cash flows
Cumulative cash flows

125

2015

2016

2017

2016

(35)
(35)

Payback period (years)

4.0

90

2015

Payback period (years)

2019

216
20%
11.7%
25
63.3%
16
13
3.0
(62.8)

2020

259
20%
15.0%
39
65.0%
25
14
11.8
(51.0)

2021

311
20%
18.3%
57
66.7%
38
14
24.0
(27.0)

2022

373
20%
21.7%
81
68.3%
55
15
40.8
13.8

2023

448
20%
25.0%
112
70.0%
78
15
63.4
77.1

2024

537
20%
25.0%
134
70.0%
94
15
79.1
156.2

2025

645
20%
25.0%
161
70.0%
113
15
97.9
254.1

774
20%
25.0%
193
70.0%
135
15
120.4
374.5

2018
4.2%
8
40.0%
3
2.6
0.4
(3.6)

2019
5.8%
13
40.0%
5
2.7
2.4
(1.2)

2020
7.5%
19
40.0%
8
2.8
5.0
3.8

2021
9.2%
29
40.0%
11
2.8
8.6
12.4

2022
10.8%
40
40.0%
16
2.9
13.3
25.6

2023
12.5%
56
40.0%
22
3.0
19.4
45.0

2024
12.5%
67
40%
27
3.0
23.9
68.9

2025
12.5%
81
40%
32
3.0
29.2
98.2

12.5%
97
40%
39
3.0
35.7
133.9

3.2

ShoeCo
Addressable market
Market growth rate
ShoeCo market share
Revenues, Ethiopia
Gross margin %
Gross profit, Ethiopia sales
Revenues, regional exports
Growth rate, ShoeCo exports
Gross margin %
Gross profit, export from Ethiopia
Fixed costs
Cash flows
Cumulative cash flows

MedCo
Addressable market
Market growth rate
MedCo market share
Revenues
Gross margin %
Gross profit, Ethiopia sales
Fixed costs
Cash flows
Cumulative cash flows

180
20%
8.3%
15
61.7%
9
13
(3.3)
(65.8)

2.5%
4
40.0%
2
2.5
(1.0)
(4.0)

(3)
(3)

2015

2018

5.7

Payback period (years)

2017

150
20%
5.0%
8
60.0%
5
12
(7.5)
(62.5)

(55)
(55)

Payback period (years)


Import-only strategy
CareCo market share
Revenues, Ethiopia sales
Gross margin %
Gross profit, Ethiopia sales
Fixed costs
Cash flows
Cumulative cash flows

2016

2017
95
5%
3.0%
3
60.0%
2
40
40.0%
16
10.0
7.7
(27.3)

2016
200

(85)
(85)
7.8

2018
99
5%
3.3%
3
60.0%
2
42
5%
40.8%
17
10.8
8.3
(19.0)

2017
230
15%
5.0%
12
70.0%
8
10.0
(2.0)
(87.0)

2019
104
5%
3.7%
4
60.0%
2
44
5%
41.7%
18
11.7
9.0
(10.0)

2018
265
15%
5.8%
15
70.0%
11
10.5
0.3
(86.6)

2020
109
5%
4.0%
4
60.0%
3
46
5%
42.5%
20
12.5
9.8
(0.2)

2019
304
15%
6.7%
20
70.0%
14
11.0
3.2
(83.5)

2021
115
5%
4.3%
5
60.0%
3
49
5%
43.3%
21
13.3
10.7
10.5

2020
350
15%
7.5%
26
70.0%
18
11.5
6.9
(76.6)

2022
121
5%
4.7%
6
60.0%
3
51
5%
44.2%
23
14.2
11.8
22.3

2021
402
15%
8.3%
34
70.0%
23
12.0
11.5
(65.1)

2023
127
5%
5.0%
6
60.0%
4
54
5%
45.0%
24
15.0
12.9
35.2

2022
463
15%
9.2%
42
70.0%
30
12.5
17.2
(47.9)

2024
133
5%
5.0%
7
65%
4
56
5%
45%
25
15.0
14.6
49.9

2023
532
15%
10.0%
53
70.0%
37
13.0
24.2
(23.7)

2025
140
5%
5.0%
7
65%
5
59
5%
45%
27
15.0
16.1
66.0

2024
612
15%
10.0%
61
70%
43
13.0
29.8
6.1

147
5%
5.0%
7
65%
5
62
5%
45%
28
15.0
17.7
83.7

2025
704
15%
10.0%
70
70%
49
13.0
36.3
42.4

809
15%
10.0%
81
70%
57
13.0
43.6
86.0

You might also like