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Ukraine Crisis

This document provides background information on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It outlines that Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to remove the independent Ukrainian president and install a pro-Russian leader. However, the Ukrainian president remained in power with help from Western allies. The confrontation reflects a struggle for influence between Russia and the West in Eastern Europe over issues like NATO expansion and gas pipeline politics.

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Malik Abu bakar
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
28 views

Ukraine Crisis

This document provides background information on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It outlines that Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to remove the independent Ukrainian president and install a pro-Russian leader. However, the Ukrainian president remained in power with help from Western allies. The confrontation reflects a struggle for influence between Russia and the West in Eastern Europe over issues like NATO expansion and gas pipeline politics.

Uploaded by

Malik Abu bakar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Ukraine

Outline
• Introduction
• Historical Background
• Causes
• Implications
• Conclusion
Introduction
• When historians look back at President
Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine,
Russia’s eastern neighbor, they will be
surprised at the colossal blunder — or a series
of blunders — the Russian leader made.
• When he had his troops moved into Ukraine on
February 24, 2022, the purpose was to remove
from power Volodymyr Zelensky, the
independent-minded Ukrainian leader.
Introduction
• This objective was to be achieved within a week or
two.
• The plan was to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv,
the Ukrainian capital, who would slavishly follow
Moscow’s diktat.
• Instead, the Ukrainian leader not only managed to stay
in power but kept his military in shape.
• He received enormous amount of help from the US
and its allies in Western Europe in dealing with the
Russian move.
Introduction
• The current confrontation between Russia and
the US-led West regarding Ukraine is a
development of seismic proportions with far-
reaching consequences for the future of global
politics.
• Shorn of diplomatic niceties, it is a tussle for
power and influence between Russia and the
West in the former’s neighbourhood.
Introduction
• Russia, under President Putin, has taken a firm
stand that it will not allow Nato’s further eastward
expansion, thus ruling out the possibility of
Ukraine or Georgia joining the alliance.
• The US and other Western countries, on the other
hand, are determined to keep open this possibility
by supporting Ukraine’s sovereign right to take
decisions about its future orientations.
Introduction
• It is worth recalling that a few months after the
fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989,
former US secretary of state James Baker
assured Soviet leader Gorbachev that
• “there would be no extension of Nato’s
jurisdiction … one inch to the east.”
Introduction
• This solemn assurance, which was
subsequently reiterated by other Western
leaders, was violated by Nato after the
disintegration of the Soviet Union.
• Consequently, the Baltic States and seven of
the eight former members of the Warsaw Pact
became part of Nato.
Introduction
• At its summit in 2008, Nato declared that
Ukraine and Georgia could also become its
members, a commitment which was reiterated
in December 2021.
• Russia is firmly opposed to any further
eastward expansion of Nato.
Introduction
• Putin demanded ‘legal guarantees’ for Russia’s
security on December 17, 2021,
• In the form of draft treaties with the US and
Nato,
• which said that Nato would rule out its further
expansion eastwards and
• required the alliance to forego military
cooperation of any kind with Ukraine.
Introduction
• Several sessions of talks between the two
sides, notably talks between presidents Biden
and Putin on February 12, and
• visits by several Western leaders including
French President Macron and German
Chancellor Scholz, to Moscow have failed to
achieve a breakthrough.
Introduction
• The US, the UK and other Western countries
had warned Russia that it would be subjected
to painful economic sanctions if it invades
Ukraine in pursuit of its security goals in the
region.
• Among other measures, the Nord Stream 2
agreement, the gas pipeline from Russia to
Germany, may be mothballed.
Introduction
• On the other hand, China, after a meeting
between Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping in
Beijing, has expressed its support for Russian
demands relating to Ukraine and eastern
Europe,
• Strengthening Russia’s economic and political
position in the face of the possible Western
sanctions.
Introduction
• As a solution to the crisis, President
Emmanuel Macron of France suggested
‘Finlandization’ of Ukraine.
• This term refers back to the 1948 treaty by
which Finland agreed to stay out of NATO in
return for the guarantee by Moscow that it
would be safe from invasion.
Historical Background

• The conflict between Russia and Ukraine


started as early as the 9th century AD when
Russia evolved from Kiev (now Kyiv), the
capital of Ukraine.
• During the 13th century, Kiev was occupied by
the Mongols and then by Poland and Lithuania
until the reign of Catherine the Great when
Russia regained Ukraine.
Historical Background

• It is not just President Vladimir Putin but the


Russian mindset, overall, which is unable to
comprehend that Ukraine has been an
independent country since 1991.
• For an ordinary Russian, Ukraine still belongs
to Russia because Russia evolved from
‘Kievan Rus’ and for centuries it was part of
Russia.
Historical Background

• During the Soviet era, Ukraine was called the


country’s breadbasket because of its fertile soil
and enormous agricultural production.
• In 2014, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis was
triggered because Moscow occupied Crimea
and established its tutelage.
Historical Background

• Although Crimea was a legitimate part of


Ukraine,
• Russian reasoning for the occupation was that
majority of the population of Crimea is
ethnically Russian and
• Khrushchev’s gift of Crimea to Ukraine in
1954 cannot be endorsed.
Historical Background

• The US and other Western countries condemned


the occupation of Crimea and imposed
sanctions on Moscow.
• Later, Moscow patronised pro-Russian elements
and established control over the Luhansk and
Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine.
• Before invasion Russia had stationed more than
100,000 troops at the Ukraine Border.
Causes
1. NATO Expansion in Eastern Europe
2. Gas pipeline politics
3. Russia as second enemy of USA after China
4. New Cold War – indirectly
5. Resurgence of Russia
Causes
• There is a lot of talk about Ukraine crisis being
engineered by the US/allies.
• To dissuade Germany, the European
powerhouse,
• From pursuing an economically significant
pipeline project called North Stream 2 (Nord
Strom 2).
Causes
• The fear is that the consequent economic
interdependence between Germany and Russia
would dilute NATO,
• Reducing German standing against Russia.
• USA considers the pipeline threatening its
primacy in Europe.
Causes
• The North Stream (NS) System consists of two
pipelines between Russia and Western Europe
• The 1,222 km NS-1, formerly called North
Transgas and
• The 1,234 km NS-2, formerly the North
European Gas Pipeline; in addition to two
minor lines.
Causes
• The NS-2 is a system of offshore natural gas
pipelines under the Baltic Sea,
• Connecting Russia to Germany,
• Bypassing the overland pipelines laid over a
decade ago (NS-1).
Causes
• Opposition to the NS-2 project in particular
has been stronger by the US, Ukraine and
other Central/Eastern European countries due
to:
• a) fear of enhancing Russian influence through
dangerous energy dependence, as Russia
already fulfills 35% European gas needs;
Causes
• b) expected reduction in transit fees for existing
overland pipelines in affected European
countries; and
• c) Russian ability to bypass the traditional
transit countries (Belarus, Czech Republic,
Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine).
• With NS-2, Russia potentially threatens gas
supplies to these nations without affecting
German/Western European supplies.
Causes
• Europe, with dwindling gas reserves, finds no
affordable alternative to the Russian gas as
some countries are totally dependent on
Russian gas.
• Russian gas dependence ranges from 100%
(North Macedonia) to 94% (Finland), 24%
(France), 49% (Germany), 46% (Italy) and
40% (Poland), etc.
Implications
• Increase in oil price 100-125 $ per barrel
increasing inflation
• Another shock after covid-19 to world
economy
• Would turn global economic conditions similar
to 2008 global financial crisis
• Sine-Russian cooperation
• Europe is back to war after relative peace.
Implications – Pakistan
• Pakistan must carefully analyze the
geopolitical fallout of the Ukrainian crisis to
safeguard its security and economic interests.
• The confrontation between Russia and the
West over Ukraine also drives home the point
that powerful countries can resile – with
impunity – from their solemn assurances when
it suits them..
Implications – Pakistan
• It is also worth underscoring that major
international security issues are decided
primarily by realpolitik and power calculations
rather than international law and morality.
• Pakistan’s policymakers need to pay attention
to these factors as they come to grips with the
challenges of a world in disorder
Conclusion
• It is concluded that Ukraine war is all about
NATO expansion and Gas politics in the
region.
• Russia is traditionally expansionist and this
invasion further reinforces it.
• USA is trying to maintain its hold in the
European region which is threatened due to
Russian economic expansion.

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