2017 Edelman Trust Barometer - Trust and the U.S. Presidential Election
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The document provides information on a supplementary research study conducted by Edelman on trust and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. It finds that a majority of Americans feel the system is failing them and hold fears related to issues like corruption, globalization and immigration. Trump voters were more likely to be fearful, especially of immigration and globalization, while Clinton voters showed less fear. The study also found divisions between Trump and Clinton voters in levels of trust in institutions and support for various policy priorities.
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2017 Edelman Trust Barometer - Trust and the U.S. Presidential Election
- 1. 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer Supplementary Research Trust and the U.S. Presidential Election
- 2. Informed Public 9 years in 20+ markets Represents 13% of total global population 500 respondents in U.S. and China; 200 in all other countries Must meet 4 criteria: Ages 25-64 College educated In top 25% of household income per age group in each country Report significant media consumption and engagement in business news General Online Population 6 years in 25+ markets Ages 18+ 1,150 respondents per country All slides show General Online Population unless otherwise noted 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer Methodology 28-country global data margin of error: General Population +/-0.6% (N=32,200), Informed Public +/- 1.2% (N=6,200), Mass Population +/- 0.6% (26,000+). Country- specific data margin of error: General Population +/- 2.9 ( N=1,150), Informed Public +/- 6.9% (N = min 200, varies by country), China and U.S. +/- 4.4% (N=500), Mass Population +/- 3.0 to 3.6 (N =min 740, varies by country), half sample Global General Online Population +/- 0.8 (N=16,100). 2 17 years of data 33,000+ respondents total All fieldwork was conducted between October 13th and November 16th, 2016 Online Survey in 28 Countries Mass Population All population not including Informed Public Represents 87% of total global population U.S. Post-Election Supplementary Survey 788 American voters, weighted to be nationally representative based on age, gender and region, with oversamples of Trump voters (360) and Clinton (367) voters 372 respondents had also participated in the global Trust Barometer Survey Supplementary fieldwork was conducted from November 28th to December 11th. Margin of error for Clinton and Trump voter numbers = +/- 5.2% Margin of error for the total voter numbers = +/- 3.8%
- 3. Contents 3 1. Trust Among U.S. Voters Trust in institutions, before and after the presidential election 2. A Vote Based on Fear and Distrust • Percent of Americans who feel the system is broken, and hold various societal and economic fears • Percent of Trump and Clinton voters who hold various fears Trust and the U.S. 2016 Presidential Election 3. A Nation Divided • Demographics • Fairness of the election outcome • Trust in political institutions • Support for increased regulations • Support for general policy priorities • Support for business reforms • Support for trade policies
- 4. U.S. Trust Index Largely Unchanged Among U.S. Voters Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer and U.S. Flash Poll. Q11-620. Below is a list of institutions. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that institution to do what is right using a nine-point scale, where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal.” (Top 4 Box, Trust) Audience: U.S. General Population of voters who participated both in main and re-contact study. 4 Percent trust in the four institutions of government, business, media and NGOs, pre- and post-U.S. 2016 presidential election 45 U.S. Trust Index before Nov. 8, 2016 44 U.S. Trust Index after November 9, 2016
- 5. 50% 52 49 40 40 54 51 35 37 Trust in Two Institutions Declines 5 Percent trust in the four institutions of NGOs, business, media and government, pre- and post-U.S. 2016 presidential election Business MediaNGOs Government Two of four institutions decline post-election Neutral Trusted Distrusted +2 -5 -3 Change+− Pre-election Post-election +2 Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Below is a list of institutions. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that institution to do what is right using a nine-point scale, where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal.” (Top 4 Box, Trust) Full Flash Poll sample who voted in the Presidential election.
- 6. 42 50 21 25 47 60 15 26 62 50 57 5760 45 51 46 Trust Diverges Along Voting Lines 6 Percent trust in the four institutions of government, business, media and NGOs, pre- and post-election, Trump vs. Clinton voters Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer Q11-620 and U.S. Flash Poll. Below is a list of institutions. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that institution to do what is right using a nine-point scale, where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal.” (Top 4 Box, Trust) Audience: U.S. General Population of Trump and Clinton voters who participated both in main and re-contact study. +10 -6 +1 -6-5-2 +5 Media highly distrusted by Trump voters; declines among both Government highly distrusted by Trump voters Change+− Pre-election Post-election Trump Voters Clinton Voters -11 Business MediaNGOs Government
- 7. A Vote Based on Fear and Distrust
- 8. Without Trust, Belief in the System Fails 8 How true are each of the following? Sense of Injustice Desire for Change Need forceful reformers to bring change Lack of Confidence No confidence in current leaders Lack of Hope Hard work not rewarded, children will not have a better life, country not moving in right direction System biased in favor of elites, elites indifferent to the people, getting richer than they deserve
- 9. How true is this for you? Sense of injustice Lack of hope Lack of confidence Desire for change 57% 33% 10% Majority in U.S. Believe the System is Failing Them Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer. Q672-675, 678-680, 688-690. United States. For details on how the “system failing” measure was calculated, please refer to the Technical Appendix. 9 Not at all true 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 in 3 are uncertain Completely true System failing System working
- 10. Corruption Globalization Eroding Social Values Immigration Pace of Innovation Widespread corruption Compromising the safety of our citizens Makes it difficult to institute the changes necessary to solve our problems Protect our jobs from foreign competition Foreign companies/influence damaging our economy/ national culture Foreign corporations favor their home country Most countries cannot be trusted to engage in fair trade practices Values that made this country great are disappearing Society changing too quickly and not in ways that benefit people like me Influx of people from other countries damaging our economy and national culture Technological innovations happening too quickly and leading to changes not good for people like me Concerns Have Become Fears Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer. Corruption Q685-687, Globalization Q681-684, Eroding social values Q676 and Q758, Immigration Q685, Pace of innovation Q677. United States. For details on how the societal fears were measured, please refer to the Technical Appendix. 10 Percent of respondents who are concerned or fearful regarding each issue 76% Concerned 41% Fearful 66% Concerned 39% Fearful 67% Concerned 36% Fearful 74% Concerned 40% Fearful 61% Concerned 31% Fearful
- 11. The Cycle of Fear and Distrust 11
- 12. 11 34 Trump Won the Fear Vote Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election, grouped by “system failing” segments and level of fear from the Trust Barometer. For details on how systemic distrust and societal fears were measured, please refer to the Technical Appendix. Respondents were labeled as “fearful” if they were fearful of at least one of the following societal issues: corruption, immigration, globalization, eroding social values, and pace of innovation. 12 Percent of voters for each candidate who are fearful Trump Voters Clinton Voters 25 42 67% are fearful 45% are fearful System Failing and Fearful Fearful
- 13. Trump Voters Most Fearful of Immigration & Globalization Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population, grouped by “system failing” segments and level of fear from the Trust Barometer. Corruption Q685-687, Globalization Q681-684, Eroding social values Q676 and Q758, Immigration Q685, Pace of innovation Q677. For details on how systemic distrust and societal fears were measured, please refer to the Technical Appendix. Respondents were labeled as “fearful” if they were fearful of at least one of the following societal issues: corruption, immigration, globalization, eroding social values, and pace of innovation. 13 Percent of voters for each candidate who have specific fears Trump Voters 67% are fearful 45% are fearful Immigration 46 +29 Globalization 44 +25 Eroding Social Values 35 +14 Corruption 34 Pace of Innovation 20 Immigration 17 Globalization 19 Eroding Social Values 21 Corruption 29 Pace of Innovation 15 Trump voters twice as likely to fear globalization and immigration than Clinton voters Clinton Voters
- 14. A Nation Divided
- 15. 47 52 47 56 30 55 80 58 55 31 50+ years old White Male College-educated Household income $100K+ Demographic Divide Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election. Percent of Trump and Clinton voters with each characteristic Trump and Clinton voters equally affluent and educated Trump voters more likely to be white, male and over 50 years old Trump voters Clinton voters 15
- 16. 6 21 28 34 11 22 26 23 25 4 21 35 28 16 1 Matures Boomers Gen X Millennials Gen Z Generational Divide Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population who voted and did not vote in the Presidential election. Percent of Trump, Clinton and respondents who did not vote who are from each generation Boomers overwhelmingly voted for Trump The youth vote went to Clinton—but was largely missing in the voting booth Trump voters Clinton voters Did not vote 16
- 17. Divided on Fairness Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll Q14. Who did you vote for? Q10.The Presidential election was a fair and accurate reflection of the will of the people. (% Yes). Q13. Do you regret not having voted? (% Yes). Q16. Do you now regret how you cast your vote? (%Yes). Audience: U.S. General Population who voted and did not vote in the Presidential election. 17 Percent who agree that the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was a fair and accurate reflection of the will of the people 34 96 28% of non-voters 3% of voters regret not voting or voting for the candidate they supported Trump Voters Clinton Voters
- 18. 7 11 27 43 12 28 Matures Boomers Gen X Millennials Gen Z Total average Regrets for Those Who Did Not Vote— Especially Among Millennials Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Q13. Do you regret not having voted? (% Yes). Audience: U.S. General Population who did not vote in the Presidential election. Percent of respondents who did not vote with regrets that they did not vote, by generation 18 4 in 10 millennials who did not vote have regrets
- 19. 27 58 46 60 46 39 40 49 59 66 Congress Government regulators, agencies State and local government Supreme court American voters Trump Voters Trust “the People” More Than Political Institutions Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q14_17. Below is a list of political and government entities. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that it to do what is right using a 9-point scale where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal”. (Top 4 Box, Trust) Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election. Percent who trust each of the following to do what is right Among Trump voters, American voters more trusted than institutions 77% of Trump voters 8% of Clinton voters trust the Trump administration to do what is right Trump voters Clinton voters 19
- 20. Majority Favor Increased Regulation for Pharma and Financial Services Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q699. For each of the industries listed below, please indicate whether you think it should be subject to: More regulation, Less regulation, The same amount of regulation as it has currently. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election. 20 Percent of U.S. voters who think each industry sector should be subject to more regulation 59 53 44 43 42 34 33 31 28 25 23 Pharma- ceuticals Financial services Media Healthcare Energy Telecom- munications Food& beverage Automotive Manufacturing Technology Beer,wine& spirits
- 21. More Support for Increased Regulation from Clinton Voters—Except for Media Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q699. For each of the industries listed below, please indicate whether you think it should be subject to: More regulation, Less regulation, The same amount of regulation as it has currently. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election. 21 Percent who think each industry sectors should be subject to more regulation Media is only sector with stronger support for increased regulation from Trump voters 54 45 54 39 30 29 27 24 23 24 19 64 63 34 49 54 39 39 38 34 26 26 Pharma- ceuticals Financial services Media Healthcare Energy Telecom- munications Food& beverage Automotive Manufacturing Technology Beer,wine& spirits Trump voters Clinton voters
- 22. Policy Priorities: Training, Education, Keeping Profits and Manufacturing at Home 22 Percent of U.S. voters who would support each of the follow government policies, top ten policies shown 70 70 76 77 77 78 79 79 80 83 Mandate that companies offer health and retirement benefits Mandate family-friendly benefits Tax laws that encourage corporations to repatriate profits More infrastructure projects Government programs to encourage entrepreneurship Incentivize companies to source locally Tax incentives to encourage local manufacturing Penalize companies who move profits abroad Invest more in education Incentives for companies to develop job training programs Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q698. The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
- 23. Divergence on Corporate Tax Laws, Education and Benefits 23 Percent who would support each of the follow government policies, Trump voters and Clinton voters 80 82 88 77 80 80 75 86 69 74 60 61 74 78 75 80 82 82 83 85 Mandate that companies offer health and retirement benefits Mandate family-friendly benefits Invest more in education Government programs designed to encourage entrepreneurship More infrastructure projects Penalize companies who move profits abroad Incentivize companies to source locally Incentives for companies to develop job training programs Tax laws that encourage corporations to repatriate profits Tax incentives to encourage local manufacturing Trump voters more likely to support Bipartisan support Clinton voters more likely to support Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q698. The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election. Trump voters Clinton voters
- 24. Strong Support for Business Reform Policies 24 Percent of U.S. voters who favor each of the following reform policies, top 10 shown 62 63 64 65 71 72 76 77 80 81 Legislation to address climate change Allow government to regulate prescription drug prices Develop domestic fossil fuel supplies No more bailouts of financial institutions Ensure sharing-economy companies comply with regulations Hold companies responsible for not spreading fake news Food companies to clearly label ingredients such as GMOs Limit fees and interest of credit cards and lenders Financial company executives held responsible for meltdowns Do not allow executives to walk away after a scandal Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q700. The following is a list of potential industry reform policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful. 9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
- 25. Divided on Fossil Fuels, Financial Bailouts and the Environment 25 Percent of Trump vs. Clinton voters who agree with each of the follow top ten priority reform policies, General Population 79 63 71 73 77 79 81 80 56 51 47 62 73 70 75 76 82 82 75 79 Legislation to address climate change Ban antibiotics in food production Hold companies responsible for not spreading fake news Ensure sharing-economy companies comply with regulations Food companies to clearly label ingredients such as GMOs Limit fees and interest of credit cards and lenders Do not allow executives to walk away after a scandal Financial company executives held responsible for meltdowns No more bailouts of financial institutions Develop domestic fossil fuel supplies Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q700. The following is a list of potential industry reform policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful. 9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election. Trump voters more likely to support Bipartisan support Clinton voters more likely to support Trump voters Clinton voters
- 26. Support for Trade Policies: Local Sourcing and Job Protection 26 Percent who agree with each trade-related policy 59 60 68 74 78 Most countries can't be trusted on fair trade practices Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country Do more to protect jobs from foreign competitions Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally Incentivize local Protect jobs Negotiate Start over Don’t trust Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q698.The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” (“Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally”, “More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country”, “Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements”) Q670 Below is a list of statements. For each one, please rate how true you believe that statement is using a nine-point scale where one means it is “not at all true” and nine means it is “completely true”. (“Do more to protect jobs from foreign competition”, “Most countries can’t be trusted on fair trade practices”) (Top 4 Box, True) Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
- 27. Trump Voters Far More Protectionist Than Clinton Voters 27 Percent of Trump and Clinton voters who agree with each trade-related policy 46 42 71 62 75 71 80 66 87 82 Most countries can't be trusted on fair trade practices Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country Do more to protect jobs from foreign competitions Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q698.The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” (“Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally”, “More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country”, “Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements”) Q670 Below is a list of statements. For each one, please rate how true you believe that statement is using a nine-point scale where one means it is “not at all true” and nine means it is “completely true”. (“Do more to protect jobs from foreign competition”, “Most countries can’t be trusted on fair trade practices”) (Top 4 Box, True) Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election. Incentivize local Protect jobs Negotiate Start over Don’t trust Trump voters Clinton voters
- 28. The Divisions Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll 28 Trump Voters Clinton Voters Economic and societal fears • More fearful of immigration and globalization • Less fearful across all societal concerns Political institutions • More trusting of Congress and the American voter • More trusting of government regulators and agencies Regulation • Want more regulation of media • Want more regulation of nearly all other sectors Policy priorities • Use tax laws to encourage local manufacturing and repatriate profits • Invest in education, training and benefits Reform priorities • Develop domestic fossil fuel supplies, no more bailouts of financial institutions • Address climate change Trade policies • Protect jobs, renegotiate trade agreements, don’t trust other nations • None that rank higher than for Trump voters American voters are divided on:
- 29. All Voters Crossing the Aisle Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll 29 All Voters Political institutions • Just as likely to trust the Supreme Court, and state and local government Policy priorities • Incentives for companies to develop job training programs ad source locally • Penalize companies who move profits abroad • Invest in infrastructure projects • Programs to support entrepreneurship Reform priorities • Hold executives responsible for financial meltdowns and scandals • Limit lender/credit card fees and interest rates • Clear labeling of ingredients; ban antibiotics in food production • Sharing economy companies to comply with regulations • Hold companies responsible for spreading fake news Trade policies • Incentivize local sourcing of materials • Negotiate trade agreements that move goods both in and out of the country American voters agree on:
- 30. Thank You