The 26 per cent Trump tariff is expected to make Indian cashew more competitive in the US market in the short term, but exporters anticipate increased competition in the long run from African producers, who face a lower duty.

Bola Rahul Kamath, President, All India Cashew Association, said the US has levied a tariff of 46 per cent on Vietnam, while it has levied 26 per cent on India. As a result, Indian cashew will be 20 per cent cheaper compared to that of Vietnam in the US. bout 90 per cent of the US cashew imports come from Vietnam, while India’s share is very small, Kamath said.

US consumes around 1.5 lakh tonnes of cashew, of which Vietnam’s share is 1.3 lakh tonnes, while India’s share is around 7,000-8,000 tonnes.

“In the short term, it is positive for Indian cashew exporters because our competitor is punished more than us. However, in the long term, there could be more competition from African countries, as they have a duty of 10 per cent. So, the African countries will be 15 per cent more competitive than India. If the African countries can increase production, build capacities and start supplying to the US, we may see a challenge in the next 2-3 years,” Kamath said.

Exports dipping

Indian cashew exporters have been facing stiff competition Vietnam in the global markets in the recent years as a result of which the exports have been on a decline. “In the next 1-2 years, India may bounce back in the US market if this news is correct” he said.

India’s cashew exports in value terms had touched a seven year low at $339.21 million for the financial year 2023-24, a decline of around 4.8 per cent over previous year’s $356.32 million. In the April-Feb period of FY 2024-25, India’s cashew exports stood at $313.32 million, up 1 per cent over corresponding previous year’s $310.25 million.

The new US tariffs at 26 per cent augurs well for the Indian cashew industry to capture a substantial share of the US cashew kernel market from Vietnam, said J.Rajmohan Pillai, chairman of Beta Group which owns the brand NutKing.

He saidthe 46 per cent tariff on Vietnam will create a considerable competitive disadvantage to that country which holds approximately 98 per cent of the total value of cashew imports into the US from Asia.

Expand processing

However, India should review and expand its existing cashew processing capacities and look into strategic sourcing of raw cashew nuts from African nations. “We anticipate a potential surge in raw cashew nut imports to India, followed by increased processing and export to the United States,” he told businessline.

The primary cashew production centres include Vietnam, India, Brazil, and Côte d’Ivoire. Brazil retains its existing 10 per cent tariff and it will maintain its current market position. The 46 per cent tariff on Vietnam will create a considerable competitive disadvantage, while Cambodia endures a 49 per cent tariff which will make exports to the US very difficult. Côte d’Ivoire faces a 21 per cent tariff and it will be difficult for them to compete. 

“Under the current tax scenario, we anticipate the Indian cashew kernel exports to the US could increase by at least 200 per cent within the financial year. With the large tariff on Vietnam, India could easily take 50 per cent of their market share,” Pillai said.

The US has historically been one of the top importers of Indian cashew kernels. However, Vietnam set a record by exporting nearly 192,200 tonnes of cashew kernels to the US, valued at over $1.15 billion in 2024.

Published on April 3, 2025