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The first paragraph you quote was cut short in your summary. The rest of it is:

As noted above, despite the theoretical plausibility of all five, the data cautions against putting too much weight on any of them.

And then the author goes on debunking each of them:

While the first two theories — that drug incarcerations and drug-related parole violations drive growth — have received the most attention, they are also the easiest to debunk. and so it follow.




Yes, my point is, the increase of mandatory minimum sentencing doesn't seem to have been given consideration as a "direct" cause.

Seems like all the objective data is undermined by the subjectivity of determining what are the "direct" and "indirect" effects.




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