It's useful to juxtapose Figure 1 on 174 with Figure 2 on 181.
As the article explains, the causation narrative is all wrong. The state prison population started ticking up in the 1970's, but drug prisoners started ticking up in the 1980's. From 1990 to 2010, the state prison population doubled, while the percentage of those who were drug offenders peaked in 1990 and declined thereafter.
The real explanation for skyrocketing prison populations is high crime combined with sentencing reforms (limiting judicial discretion) and parole reforms (prisoners in many states used to serve just 30-35% of their sentences before discretion was taken away from parole boards).
Interestingly, the U.S. has much higher prison populations than Europe, but would not be in the lead in terms of number of custodial sentences imposed: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/world/americas/23iht-23pri... ("Still, it is the length of sentences that truly distinguishes American prison policy. Indeed, the mere number of sentences imposed here would not place the United States at the top of the incarceration lists. If lists were compiled based on annual admissions to prison per capita, several European countries would outpace the United States. But American prison stays are much longer, so the total incarceration rate is higher.")
It looks like the author does not believe sentences are directly responsible for the prison population, as most are short and most offenders are not re-incarcerated.
Interesting. Will have to read the rest of the paper. It'd be pretty bleak if you couldn't blame the government one way or the other for the level of incarceration.
As the article explains, the causation narrative is all wrong. The state prison population started ticking up in the 1970's, but drug prisoners started ticking up in the 1980's. From 1990 to 2010, the state prison population doubled, while the percentage of those who were drug offenders peaked in 1990 and declined thereafter.
The real explanation for skyrocketing prison populations is high crime combined with sentencing reforms (limiting judicial discretion) and parole reforms (prisoners in many states used to serve just 30-35% of their sentences before discretion was taken away from parole boards).
Interestingly, the U.S. has much higher prison populations than Europe, but would not be in the lead in terms of number of custodial sentences imposed: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/world/americas/23iht-23pri... ("Still, it is the length of sentences that truly distinguishes American prison policy. Indeed, the mere number of sentences imposed here would not place the United States at the top of the incarceration lists. If lists were compiled based on annual admissions to prison per capita, several European countries would outpace the United States. But American prison stays are much longer, so the total incarceration rate is higher.")