If you take the view that Bitcoin is just the start and the popularity of the blockchain to secure financial transactions will grow and become mainstream over time then this has first mover advantage written all over it.
> ...this has first mover advantage written all over it.
No, it doesn't. Major financial institutions invest significantly in technology and many are already actively exploring the blockchain[1].
I wouldn't go so far as to say that the Winklevii can't stake out a position in the broader blockchain market, but a Bitcoin exchange isn't likely to help them establish a meaningful position.
Perhaps 'early' mover advantage might be a better choice of words.
> Major financial institutions invest significantly in technology...
That they may be, but that's no guarantee of success or domination. That's the whole point of the risk of startup. Also the reason for the explosion of interest.
I'm not suggesting that Gemini will win, but they are in the space, at the beginning, unencumbered by old tech (as the larger institutions are) and are making overtures to the established order. We don't know where that will lead.
The most viable opportunity relates to the application of blockchain technology to existing markets that are already dominated by major financial institutions. There is no doubt room for new companies to become blockchain technology providers to these financial institutions, but if you look at the Winklevii's investments and ventures, they are predominantly "Bitcoin as a big asset class" as opposed to "pure blockchain technology."
That's not to say that some of the technology they develop can't be repurposed for resale to other institutions, but a lot of others are already playing in the blockchain technology space and they don't have the burdens of trying to create and manage exchanges, ETFs, etc. for an "asset class" that is miniscule and heading in the wrong direction.
