Comparing Tesla to existing car companies misses the point entirely. Telsa is an energy platform company that is investing in delivering (Supercharger network) and storing (Gigafactory) energy. Cars are certainly the current "killer app" today, but are likely to be followed by many other applications in the future.
Yes, it's starting to look as though the cars are merely a shell for the very profitable batteries they're going to be cranking out in Nevada. Perhaps the whole Tesla car idea was a buyout play -- get established, build a name, then sell the whole thing to GM for $30 billion.
Once the battery plant has economies of scale, they'll be fueling a whole new generation of electric vehicles by other makers, perhaps including the upcoming Apple and Google auto-pilot offerings (the Nexus car? the iCar?).
Then there is the home and small office market for backup power, storage of daytime solar energy, off-grid and remote locations e.g. ranger stations in national parks. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out.
The energy demands of this country will be met by utility companies and their massive infrastructure projects. A few hundred MW-Hrs from Tesla is pretty small in the great scheme of utility energy storage.
I'm sorry if I gave you the impression that Telsa is competing with utilities to store energy at scale. I meant storing energy for personal use (vehicles/homes/etc). They will certainly source all of their energy from said utility companies.
The large scale energy use projects are leveraged by personal users however.
If you have net-metering, then you sell your energy back to the grid. I mean, California's energy situation sucks (and will continue to suck until they build some large-scale energy storage solutions). But the majority of the country can just use net-metering... sell the energy back to the grid and get all the benefits of stored energy without actually having to buy Tesla's Batteries.
Home solar is more valuable with an attached battery. Without it, most setups as sold will shutoff if your home loses grid power. A battery is not the only way to solve this but it's the best solution if you can afford it.
But that's not what people use Solar Panels for. They use Solar Panels to reduce (or even negate) electricity costs.
Spending tens of thousands of dollars on batteries that only last a few hours when grid-power is lost is not a luxury the typical person can afford. But solar panels that are cheaper (and provide revenue through net-metering) will revolutionize the energy industry.
The average homeowner uses 30 kW-hrs of electricity a day. So... what, three Power-Walls per day of backup energy for $10k + installation costs + inverter costs? With a power output of only 2kW? This is going to cost maybe 20k or 30k for a solution that gives you power for more than a day.
In contrast, a simple gasoline generator will get you 5kW of power (6kW peak) and run for as long as you have gasoline. This crazy solution costs like $600 from Home Depo... and has several decades of experience to prove its effectiveness.
Generator + Solar Panels is still looking a hell of a lot more practical than Solar Panels + Battery. $50 of gasoline is going to run you ~25 gallons, enough to last 2+ days without any power. And if a crazy hurricane "Sandy" situation occurs again, you can always go out to the local gas station to grab more gasoline for day 8, day 9, or day 11 without power.
I mean, seriously? 10kWh per PowerWall is laughably small.
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I mean, when do you lose power for extended periods of time? Answer: when major hurricanes or snowstorms hit. That's what. It isn't like your Solar Panels will work while they're completely covered in snow. You'll need the generator if you actually want reliable off-grid energy anyway.
And if a crazy hurricane "Sandy" situation occurs again, you can always go out to the local gas station to grab more gasoline for day 8, day 9, or day 11 without power.
During Sandy 80% of New Jersey gas stations were closed, so no you couldn't just run to the local gas station for a top off. Batteries + solar aren't going to power your whole house through Sandy but it will keep a minimal power level indefinitely so you can charge your phone, run your fridge, and perhaps have a night light to read by. Though I have to agree I don't see the point of giant batteries outside of a doomsday prepper strategy. It is much easier and cheaper to just draw power from the grid at night.
I have home solar. I'm sharing my experience. With a small battery, your solar power will continue to function if separated from the grid. I'm not sure what the argument is. I installed my system without a battery. I don't have a battery installed today. But what I said is, I find home solar to be more valuable with a battery.
Maybe get a generator + Tesla 10 kWh wall battery? Then you get the best of both worlds. The Tesla will grandfather your solar energy advantage in the evening after the sun goes down, and the generator kicks in when the grid goes down. So your primary use of the grid will be, say, midnight to 6am while you're sleeping.
Yes, throwing more money at a problem generally solves it. But most people can't afford $10k to $20k appliances for backup power.
The true solution is the centralized utility providing energy storage for the masses. Again, large-scale infrastructure projects like the Bath County Pumped Storage Station and strong investments into a reliable local grid.
110 MWs of power for hundreds-of-thousands of homeowners.
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You tackle this energy problem by building a strong, reliable city, town, or neighborhood. At least if you want to tackle the energy problem of the 99% instead of the 1%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_are_the_99%25
The solution is, build large-scale energy storage plants (CAES, Pumped Hydro), and then have local homeowners use the large-scale battery for storage and energy. IE: Net Metering.
We've had energy storage devices for homes for a while now.
It isn't exactly tearing up the market. Very few people are willing to pay the significant upfront cost for the benefit of ongoing but small reductions in power bills. And that is with government subsidies (at least in Australia).
I don't see how Tesla's superior technology is going to affect the product proposition.
Similarly, we've had electric cars for a while, and we've had high end sports cars and sedans for quite a while, but Tesla came along and blew most of them out of the water. Except for range, which will be solved sooner or later, it's a stunning tour de force, especially coming from an American manufacturer.
I have faith that Elon Musk will also think of a way to disrupt the home energy storage market, which in my opinion scarcely exists anyway. People have clunky, loud generators for emergencies, and it's possible to get rechargeable batteries to store your solar power, but there's not really an elegant solution yet to the after-dark problem. A quiet, high capacity "home battery" such as Tesla is planning might just be the ticket.
You can get 10kW of power from a Gas generator for $3000 (hooked up to a Propane fuel tank... or to a gas line if you trust those). A 500 gallon propane tank will keep you running virtually indefinitely, and will only cost a few thousand after installation costs.
So you're realistically looking at $5k to $6k for a gas generator solution for a lot of people.
In contrast, Power Wall is $3500 for a paltry 2kW of power... not enough to even run my air conditioning unit let alone the rest of my house. This cost does not include the inverter, the additional batteries that need to be built out, or the electrician who needs to come out and set this all up. After that extra money spent... it is unlikely to run for much longer than 24-hours.
It is clear what the sane, reliable solution is. A gas generator. The Power Wall doesn't come anywhere close to the specs.
kWh is energy storage. I'm talking about kW: kilowatts. Tesla's batteries can only output 2kW.
This means that the PowerWall can't even supply a typical 3-ton air conditioner (which uses up 3500Watts of power).
Lets just look at your typical appliances: your air conditioning is on (3.5kW starting, 2kW running), your refrigerator turns on (1200W starting, 200W running), and then the Sump Pump started to go (2kW starting, 1500W continuous).
Just preventing your food from spoiling and your basement from flooding is going to require TWO powerwalls before the inefficiencies of an inverter.
I'm not even talking about capacity (kWh). I'm simply talking about the amount of power the Tesla batteries are rated for. 2kW (3.3kW peak)
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> Anyway, the prices will undoubtedly come down over time. Competition from China, etc.
On the contrary. It looks like Tesla is trying to loss-lead on batteries to help scale up their Gigafactory. Tesla is assuming the cost will come down already, and is burning cash until it happens.
> Very few people are willing to pay the significant upfront cost for the benefit of ongoing but small reductions in power bills.
There are nine million households in Australia.[1] 1.4 million (one in six) have rooftop PV solar installed - "the highest proportion of any country."[2] Tesla is debuting its household battery storage in Australia because of the opportunity it presents. I expect within ten years, more than half of solar powered houses will have some form of storage installed.
