"Manual computers, like the Mac and Windows PCs, will slowly shift from the standard to the niche, something of interest only to experts and enthusiasts and developers."
It's interesting because I imagine that many of us would likely not be enthusiasts, experts, and developers had it not been for our "manual computers".
Perhaps the fact that I only prefer to drive manual transmission cars is a good indicator of why I am not overly thrilled about iPad. I have often wondered about the ratio of automatic/manual drivers of the HN crowd.
Abstraction isn't just a matter of degree. It turns out that abstracting away the transmission in a car works fairly well. But no car I've ever seen abstracts away the brakes. In fact, most cars sold today have hydraulically assisted brakes, to give the user even more control over them. Apple just seems, IMHO, to be abstracting away a few things I'd like control over.
There are actually cars being built now which will auto-brake in cruise control when you're behind a car going slower so you match their speed, and auto-breaking in emergencies when a collision is detected. Along with trying to nudge you away from leaving your current lane when you haven't signaled, the cars of the future are actually giving you less to do (though I don't think they would ever completely remove the manual control, but that's because it can be life or death).
ABS can be said to be a step in abstracting away braking. By stepping on the brakes you're not directly controlling the brakes, but telling them to slow you down as quickly and safely as possible using whatever method it deems best, and most people consider that a good thing. We're also starting to see more cars which auto break when they sense they're getting too close to things. While I don't see a time when we'll have cars without a break pedal I do see that the break pedal will be abstracted further and further away from directly controlling the breaks.
It's interesting because I imagine that many of us would likely not be enthusiasts, experts, and developers had it not been for our "manual computers".