Majorities often shift, and depend on other changes. E.g. Brexit probably means the end of the UK as we know it - it substantially increased the odds of Scottish independence, as England is far more right wing, but have been held in check by EU law. It may even mean a unified Ireland, as there's been a solid shift towards the Republican side in Stormont, and even some unionists seem to be disillusioned by how the concerns of Northern Ireland gets ignored at Westminster.
Meanwhile London has demanded more devolved powers (partly because Manchester recently got lots of power devolved). More demands will follow.
The UK has been fracturing since the way it was created, and the cracks are getting deeper and deeper, and Brexit looks set to accelerate that process sharply.
For the avoidance of doubt, as I see this sentiment all over the frickin internet, a united Ireland is a very unlikely outcome of Brexit.
The Good Friday agreement states that the Secretary of State for NI shall call a referendum on the question if he or she believes that it will be passed.
Right now, there is a solid unionist majority in the North. The gains made by Sinn Fein are most likely the result of unionists staying home (the first minister, Arlene Foster was accused of corruption). This will most likely remain the case for the next twenty years.
And even, if by some miracle or amazing confluence of events this occurs, I fear that we would have hardline freedom-fighters blowing crap up in the island for some time afterwards.
Scotland is definitely looking more likely, given the long-standing differences between their social policy and England, but the Spanish veto is always an issue (unless they join after the UK leaves).
> Yes, but what's the alternative? Having countries run on "expert opinion" lest people shift their preferences later?
Requiring super-majorities for large constitutional changes, like most countries do.
> When majorities shift they can always revert course in any case.
Often that is not true. E.g. it is extremely unlikely the UK can ever get the same deal it had if it wishes to rejoin the EU later. Even if it gets offered the same deal, it requires unanimous approval - every single member state can veto.
Meanwhile London has demanded more devolved powers (partly because Manchester recently got lots of power devolved). More demands will follow.
The UK has been fracturing since the way it was created, and the cracks are getting deeper and deeper, and Brexit looks set to accelerate that process sharply.