Hmm, sometimes I think that we won't get super close to AGI until we can actually model something the size of a Human Brain (in terms of neurons or Synapses). Human Brain has 1B+ Neurons, or 4Qu+ synapses. So that's 12.5 GB all at once to deal with, if you're representing neurons as either 0 or 1. However, in reality Neurons are much more complicated, and could only treat them as binary if you have a neuromorphic computer. So we would need to deal with many many times that many GB at once, even if we had really efficient ways of storing the data.

That's a lot of data to deal with, especially since you need to train it, running huge computations using each neuron.

I know nothing about hardware, and this is a very crude prediction/estimation of how AGI would happen, but my point is that we might be limited by Hardware for a few more years.

I fully agree with the above responses, and I am optimistic about major break throughs, however like many of you guys, I don't think we should just assume a bit more horsepower and things will magically work.