> As a data scientist, this hints either (a) change of classification system that was not properly noted, or (b) that there's an underlying reason which causes infant death, which may manifest in different ways depending e.g. on whether the infant sleeps on their belly or their back.
As a data scientist, you should really consider more than these two causes. For example, perhaps some other cause of infant deaths was rising during that same period. Or, perhaps there is a change in classification, AND there has been a saturation point reached in terms of how the existing public health initiatives can affect population behaviors. You really just cannot reason from coarse, population level death rates like this to a specific condition or cause.
The graph on that site very clearly shows that most of offsetting increase is caused by strangulation and suffocation, not an actual unexplained cause. It appears to be mostly a change in classification.
Finally, I really want to point out that we should not expect that a public information campaign would decrease SIDS rates to zero. After all, we can see in this thread that there are still plenty of parents who put their babies to sleep on their tummies. As far as most people know, the data could show that SIDS is 100% caused by prone sleeping and people would still doubt the evidence and put their child to sleep prone. SIDS rates would still not drop to zero, and that would not be evidence against the hypothetical cause.
I did consider more, and I looked much more deeply into it, as I mentioned though that was 10 years ago. Everything about the available data was weird - e.g. Mom’s education level came up in several studies as the strongest predictor inversely correlated with SIDS (but irrelevant in others) - controlled for the usual confounders of that input (smoking, salary, marital and spousal status, mother’s age).
And I started with saying that my conclusion was that it is likely safer for babies to sleep on their back from the SIDD/SUID perspective, but the evidence didn’t seem as conclusive or overwhelming as I was led to believe.
The hospital staff made it sound like letting my baby sleep on their tummy is signing their death warrant.
Do note, also, that prevalence of back sleeping went from less than 30% to more than 80% over the period graphed. One should not expect compliance from such a campaign in general, but (as far as medical compliance goes) a very good one was achieved. New parents are perhaps the most compliant group.
I am unlikely to dig as deep into the data again, but my well supported (I believe) conclusion at the time was that, all-cause-infant-mortality-wise, the recommendation may be somewhat justified, but the strength, might and terror in which it is given is definitely not.
As a data scientist, you should really consider more than these two causes. For example, perhaps some other cause of infant deaths was rising during that same period. Or, perhaps there is a change in classification, AND there has been a saturation point reached in terms of how the existing public health initiatives can affect population behaviors. You really just cannot reason from coarse, population level death rates like this to a specific condition or cause.
Also: https://www.cdc.gov/sids/data.htm
The graph on that site very clearly shows that most of offsetting increase is caused by strangulation and suffocation, not an actual unexplained cause. It appears to be mostly a change in classification.
Finally, I really want to point out that we should not expect that a public information campaign would decrease SIDS rates to zero. After all, we can see in this thread that there are still plenty of parents who put their babies to sleep on their tummies. As far as most people know, the data could show that SIDS is 100% caused by prone sleeping and people would still doubt the evidence and put their child to sleep prone. SIDS rates would still not drop to zero, and that would not be evidence against the hypothetical cause.