The second reserve currency is the EUR, the EU is already actually starting to break up with the departure of the UK, and is way more likely to continue to break up than the US.
As for CNY, China is a known currency manipulator with no free exchange mechanisms, no central bank independence, and no rule of law.
No individual currency, greater regionalization of each currency.
As regards the EUR, I wouldn't say the UK leaving is sufficient to claim "the EU is already actually starting to break up." I don't think there's serious existential threat to the EUR long term, and there are plans to move away from the dollar.
Those factors don't matter much for CNY if China can exert sufficient political pressure on its economic dependents, which it will likely attempt given the long term geopolitical payoff.
I see those as the 2 main regionalizing forces, although as they wean their populations off the dollar, other smaller currencies may follow as it loses benefits of being global reserve.
Agree that the EU will more likely break up than the US, there aren't state-level checkpoints banning interstate travel on a governor-by-governor basis. If Germany and Austria are squabbling over medical supplies now, it likely won't be EUR.
I doubt CNY given past history, but if the worst comes to pass, I don't think China would pass up a long-shot opportunity to become the next reserve currency. I think it depends on how desperate people are, and how good China's execution is. USD took off post-WWII and USA's execution was top-notch.
I would also say not having a global reserve currency is another option, especially if globalization shrinks massively and international trade becomes highly discrete and easily manageable at a national level by govt. I think there are some trade deals that are barter-like (Australia // Taiwan with the alcohol for masks trade). No need for USD there.
Let's hope the USD is here to stay, and the country stays strong. I just hate being surprised.
The second reserve currency is the EUR, the EU is already actually starting to break up with the departure of the UK, and is way more likely to continue to break up than the US.
As for CNY, China is a known currency manipulator with no free exchange mechanisms, no central bank independence, and no rule of law.
JPY or GBP? I don't see it.