Before accounting for 40 years of technology improvements in reactor design (the 40 years with the most stunning safety improvement in humanities' history) that suggests a probability of ~0.004%.
40 years of tech improvements could feasibly have reduced the risk by 2 orders of magnitude. ivanhoe's made up number is in fact defensible. It has big error bars on it but it is not unreasonable.
Before accounting for 40 years of technology improvements in reactor design (the 40 years with the most stunning safety improvement in humanities' history) that suggests a probability of ~0.004%.
40 years of tech improvements could feasibly have reduced the risk by 2 orders of magnitude. ivanhoe's made up number is in fact defensible. It has big error bars on it but it is not unreasonable.