I would wager that just because the next big thing will start out looking at a toy does not equate to everything that looks like a toy will become the next big thing.

Indeed, payments/currency/money seems to be one of the holdout areas yet to experience a major global disruption by the internet. That doesn't mean the "great new thing" necessarily has to be bitcoin, obviously. But it could be. It also could be that computer security theory and practice first has to be improved for it to be feasible so it'd still be some years away.

Perhaps, but it's coming. Paypal set out to revolutionize payments and finance, and it was a bit before its time. Peter, Max, Luke, et al. wanted to be an online currency, but struggled to stay afloat when the government (understandably) back-lashed against them. They were, after all, trying to destroy the government in many ways.

So Paypal changed their vision, and sold out. Oh well. All's well that ends well. And things certainly ended well for them. But online currency is inevitable. It's just going to take a little longer.