>Arguably the hypothesis that matches the data from the DK paper best is: "Everyone thinks they're average regardless of skill level"
No, if you look at the graph[0] everyone thinks they are above average (over 50). The worst think they are a little above average and everyone else thinks they are better and better but increasing by less than the real difference.
At any rate, the issue seems to be with how people imagine everyone performs - they seem to think there are a lot of people who are really bad for a start, and seemingly a bit more people who are really good than there are (at least if we assume the results are accurate).
No, if you look at the graph[0] everyone thinks they are above average (over 50). The worst think they are a little above average and everyone else thinks they are better and better but increasing by less than the real difference.
At any rate, the issue seems to be with how people imagine everyone performs - they seem to think there are a lot of people who are really bad for a start, and seemingly a bit more people who are really good than there are (at least if we assume the results are accurate).
0. https://andersource.dev/assets/dk-autocorrelation/dk.webp