I doubt the 10%+ year over year increases will be sustained with increased mortagage rates.
That's a long way away from predicting a crash or even a significant decline in prices, though. That would require a lot more inventory, and all those folks with 3% mortgages are going to be in no hurry to sell, and the stats on their mortgage amounts vs incomes looks WAY better than it did in 2007.
The problem is that supposedly, since 2020, the Fed has printed somewhere between 40-80% of all dollars in existence (The M1).
So my question is, if there is twice as much money in the system, but the same number of assets, why would it be shocking that housing continues to inflate?
M1 is a useful tool to understand why the prices of consumer goods have increased but not at all useful to understand home buying power.
People regularly sell stocks, bonds, and other homes in order to produce the down payment for a mortgage and have done so since long before 2020. M1 does not measure any of these.
The set of homebuyers and the set of stimulus recipients in a lot of these markets are non-overlapping, too.
Crypto, on the other hand, is something I know was sold for a downpayment by several of my acquaintances, which is acting as its own form of "money supply increase" since they spent orders of magnitude less to acquire it. The anti-inflation tool creates its own inflation by turning into "new money." :)
That's a long way away from predicting a crash or even a significant decline in prices, though. That would require a lot more inventory, and all those folks with 3% mortgages are going to be in no hurry to sell, and the stats on their mortgage amounts vs incomes looks WAY better than it did in 2007.