LFP will hit 260 wh/kg, with superior cell-to-pack density, no cobalt/nickel/manganese AFAIK. That is the 350-500 mile range cars and anything shorter.
Sodium Ion will hit 160 wh/kg so that's the 200-300 mile city cars, and no need to even source Lithium. And grid storage.
I haven't done the napkin math, but the high-density LFP should also be the 100 mile range PHEV, which would solve the middle america / rural Africa/Siberia/etc range issues.
That Li-S paper that went through HN about a month ago will probably do those densities, so that would supplant SSB, and would probably (speculating here) drop into existing battery factories more seamlessly.
The drop-in conversions would be a huge boon though, I just don't think SSB will get there soon enough.
SSBs would probably still be able to rule mobile/laptops though, still a big market.
Totally agree. There aren't even completed pilot plants for SSBs. There is nearly 0% chance they will be a majority of the market by 2030. LFP batteries are being made today and even small yearly improvements to energy density will be enough nearly all cars by 2030. Sodium Ion is just coming to market and they look great for grid storage. For transportation CATL is proposing hybrid lithium ion and sodium ion packs to solve some energy density and voltage problems with sodium ion alone.
Sodium Ion will hit 160 wh/kg so that's the 200-300 mile city cars, and no need to even source Lithium. And grid storage.
I haven't done the napkin math, but the high-density LFP should also be the 100 mile range PHEV, which would solve the middle america / rural Africa/Siberia/etc range issues.
That Li-S paper that went through HN about a month ago will probably do those densities, so that would supplant SSB, and would probably (speculating here) drop into existing battery factories more seamlessly.
The drop-in conversions would be a huge boon though, I just don't think SSB will get there soon enough.
SSBs would probably still be able to rule mobile/laptops though, still a big market.
We'll see what happens!