They'll surely lose some subscribers in the short run, but it's not clear to me that it'll be a net loser in the long run. There are people who share accounts because they are very price-sensitive, and they'd be more likely to bail and find other ways to get content (competitors that aren't cracking down, or pirating). But there are also people who share accounts for historical reasons, like grown children and their parents. Those folks may have more than enough disposable income to have their own accounts, or pay a surcharge for having a joint account.
The question is: what percent of NFLX's multi-household subscribers will (1) quit, (2) pay a surcharge, or (3) get a separate account? My guess is there aren't a lot in (1), most are in (2), and there are very few in (3). I imagine they're trying to learn from their experience with this pilot program so they can figure out an appropriate surcharge.
The problem Netflix has, is that if you've been on a streaming platform for a while, then the other platforms are all more attractive because they have more content that you haven't seen, while the content on your current platform seems stale.
It's a weird system that encourages switching over. The only thing they have is inertia. But if you send emails and notices out to your customers saying that you are degrading service, or charging more? That could easily be the call to action they need to switch.
Yeah, there's definitely an incentive to switch in the short-run. This is especially true for people who have had family plans in the past and part of the family wanted to cancel but didn't because they knew the other part of the family still used the service.
If competitors took the opportunity to crack down on account sharing as well, there might not be as many switchers. Honestly one of the things that NFLX might be testing out with these pilots is how the competition will react. Maybe they're giving Disney/Amazon time to get their systems set up for a crackdown, since that would help NFLX, and in the long run help all of them.
I would think Disney/Amazon wait to see how things pan out with Netflix first. In the short term, don't they stand to gain subscribers? Seems the only way they lose out is if the effort is a net positive, but that's not guaranteed, and it may be sensitive to how it's how it's rolled out.
Anything that will make people consider their Netflix subscription is gonna be a loser for Netflix.
Most people have had Netflix for so long they don’t even think about it as an expense. My family, for example, have been paying for Netflix through TMobile and we got it at a time when TMobile was offering it for free.
Over the past couple of years the subsidized price seems to have increased beyond several very decent streaming services.
The very act of looking at the bill means we will be bailing out of the Netflix subscription, the moment we’ve completed the latest season of Stranger Things.
Netflix is making a mistake by making people think about their Netflix subscription.
The question is: what percent of NFLX's multi-household subscribers will (1) quit, (2) pay a surcharge, or (3) get a separate account? My guess is there aren't a lot in (1), most are in (2), and there are very few in (3). I imagine they're trying to learn from their experience with this pilot program so they can figure out an appropriate surcharge.