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I understand the sentiment. The reason the mock-up was quick to create was because the entire thing was already done in my head. There were plenty of folks with very little experience and some with quite a bit of experience. I can’t say that I have any real idea what goes on in the minds of the folks making the decisions, but they do seem to pick an outsized number of winners. Whether we’re in that bucket or not remains to be seen.



Yeah I get it, I don't mean to disparage what you did and it looks like it worked out great for you. But how many hours would you say you've spent sketching it out, in your head at least?

It's just odd to me that someone can compare a million dollar ARR business with a cocktail napkin business sketch and give the company's equal terms.


Yep, it’s a fair critique and I agree it’s odd.


Selection bias is a tricky question when evaluating "they do seem to pick an outsized number of winners." Does that mean that the people they pick off personal traits and a 15 minute demo are intrinsically winners, or is it just possible for YC to turn almost anyone with the right skills into a winner?


Great question, I imagine there is some truth in both statements.

The failure rate in the startup world, especially when success means a billion dollar exit or IPO, is incredibly high though.




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