Perhaps my biggest issue then is I'm not all in on the purely digital world that you describe and admit doesn't really exist, yet. That is to say, my plumber doesn't care about any of this and just wants cash. In the future, that can and probably will change, of course.
But today, in our current world, very few industries and virtually no blue collar industries accept such currency.
So then the question becomes, what is the value of <insert coin here>. Some will talk about energy, or efficiency. Some will talk about scarcity. Some will talk tech merits. But nobody to date has been able to convince me that it has any real value. There are no armies or economies validating it.
I think in simple terms, perhaps I'm a luddite. If someone, say completely disconnected from modern conveniences, were selling an item, I could perhaps trade physical goods for it. Or perhaps shiny metals, and explain why they're valuable(assuming they didn't know). Or explain dollars, and the guarantee behind them. How would you sell them on cryptocoins having value? The tech doesn't matter a ton here to a person, so onto the value. Why are bitcoins worth more than say, beanie babies of yore? Both seem to be run purely on speculation, at this point.
Said another way, if someone gives me 10k in cash, I have faith it will still be worth 10k in a year(ignoring our awful inflation). If someone gave me 10k in bitcoins, I have zero faith it would be worth anything tomorrow.
The world doesn't need to be purely digital, and crypto doesn't need to be the entire worlds economy. In fact, my argument is that it's NOT. It's something seperate, and unique and new. It's not a replacement for the economy, it's an addition to it. Though i'm sure a plumber could find a useful digital service hosted in crypto... i'd argue crypto isn't for plumbers. Not their plumbing business at least.
Imagine a git + smart contract service (this doesn't really exist today, and it's my side project i'm trying to build) which is integrated with a hosting service like Akash (cosmos). You can build new digital services/games/worlds that are governed in a decentralized way. You could build a new Facebook for example. The difference here, are changes are voted on by the owners of the token. I'm not even sure the token would be worth a whole lot monetarily (depends how the owners). But as a user, how much is having control over the social media you use daily worth? To me, A lot.
Everything in crypto is open source, but unlike the open source world today, crypto provides a mechanism and culture to pay contributors. So a lot of crypto applications are designed to capture that value in a communial way to pay people (or bots) for their work. The value of the crypto is access to these services. It's no different from the value our digital economy today provides. Just governed differently. Instead of Zuck controlling the digital service, the users can control the digital service.
But why/how? Online services today already saw that nobody wants to pay. That explains the fast death of journalism, news sites, etc. That also explains why scummy ads currently act as the financier to most sites.
Given that people won't pay when it's easy, why would they suddenly start paying when the barrier of converting cash to crypto is added on top?
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding and you're instead referring to actual ownership of said services. How does that differ from written agreements or stocks today?
What you may be describing seems similar to how Brave sees the world. I respect that and love the product, but don't see it as a reality.
"How does that differ from written agreements or stocks today" I think of it more like a PTA organization than a stock and a corporation. The goal of a stock is to create a profit stream for the owners. The goal of a crypto service is to build a useful utility for the owners.
The obvious difference is it's permissionless and global - this may surprise a lot of US citizens on this site but it's actually really hard to buy and hold shares in US companies today even in many developed countries, let alone the developing world.
NFT projects have demonstrated new forms of monetization that don't need ads or all users to pay, we can now experiment with these now that we have a value layer for the internet.
I don't really agree with the original post and I don't buy into the "purely digital world" argument. I'm excited about crypto for different reasons. But a few thoughts:
> So then the question becomes, what is the value of <insert coin here>. Some will talk about energy, or efficiency. Some will talk about scarcity. Some will talk tech merits. But nobody to date has been able to convince me that it has any real value. There are no armies or economies validating it.
Why are stocks without dividends worth anything? Companies have earnings. Many protocols have earnings as well, and they are built on top of Ethereum, which provides the security layer. What do you mean by "real value"?
> Said another way, if someone gives me 10k in cash, I have faith it will still be worth 10k in a year(ignoring our awful inflation)
10k denominated in what? I think ignoring inflation is an example of why people care. You only trust your cash because you trust the US government, which may be reasonable, but people in other parts of the world don't trust their government with monetary policies, e.g. [0]. Imagine inflation gets worse, the EU needs bailout, or we have WW3, and the the US government says "Sorry, you're no longer allow to buy gold or move your assets abroad, you need to buy our bad government bonds" - stuff like this has happened before, in many countries. And you can't do anything about it other than watching your savings crumble. Crypto gives you optionality. A government-independent monetary ecosystem. Nobody can lock you out. I trust the "Ethereum government" more than most centralized governments due to the transparency, global footprint, and aligned incentives. I can hold my savings in a USD-backed stablecoin as long as I believe in the US government's monetary policy. If that changes, I can swap into something else in a matter of seconds, and I don't need permission from any government to do so.
My experience has been that the value people see in crypto is directly inversely proportional to how much they believe in their government and whether they have experienced governments being malicious due to misaligned incentives. Most middle-aged people in the US don't fall into this category - they have never experienced war or malicious governments because they were lucky being born at just the right time and place and enjoyed nothing but prosperity. Convincing them about crypto is hard.
>My experience has been that the value people see in crypto is directly inversely proportional to how much they believe in their government
That's an interesting thesis and 'feels' true, but I have a hard time reconciling HN's (seeming) indie ethos with it's cryptoskepticism if that's the overriding factor. Have you any theories to explain the seeming disconnect?
I don't think HN can be considered indie these days. It was 10+ years ago. Now it's as mainstream as it gets. You rarely see something here that's not an echo chamber or the same as mainstream tech media. Just a result a of tech/startups being a lot more mainstream now than they were 15 years ago when HN launched.
I think many of the more "indie communities" are now assembling in Discord, subreddits, etc.
I'm also somewhat surprised at the extreme crypto hate on HN, but I'd attribute that to demographics. I do think that quite a large number of HN users are middle-aged Americans significantly above middle class. They probably started using it when they were early 20s interested in tech/startups and YC, which means they're now ~35-40 and have probably made a decent amount of money in tech. And that demographic doesn't really benefit from crypto for the reasons above...
Perhaps my biggest issue then is I'm not all in on the purely digital world that you describe and admit doesn't really exist, yet. That is to say, my plumber doesn't care about any of this and just wants cash. In the future, that can and probably will change, of course.
But today, in our current world, very few industries and virtually no blue collar industries accept such currency.
So then the question becomes, what is the value of <insert coin here>. Some will talk about energy, or efficiency. Some will talk about scarcity. Some will talk tech merits. But nobody to date has been able to convince me that it has any real value. There are no armies or economies validating it.
I think in simple terms, perhaps I'm a luddite. If someone, say completely disconnected from modern conveniences, were selling an item, I could perhaps trade physical goods for it. Or perhaps shiny metals, and explain why they're valuable(assuming they didn't know). Or explain dollars, and the guarantee behind them. How would you sell them on cryptocoins having value? The tech doesn't matter a ton here to a person, so onto the value. Why are bitcoins worth more than say, beanie babies of yore? Both seem to be run purely on speculation, at this point.
Said another way, if someone gives me 10k in cash, I have faith it will still be worth 10k in a year(ignoring our awful inflation). If someone gave me 10k in bitcoins, I have zero faith it would be worth anything tomorrow.