>But this article claims to be able to predict the future of civilization 100 years into the future
If you read the article (I know, I know...) it's extremely honest about the accuracy of population modeling as it reaches into the future, and fully admits that projections past 70 years aren't good. It even does so relatively close to the beginning.
“Demographic projections are highly accurate, and it has to do with the fact that most of the people who will be alive in 30 years have already been born,” the UN’s population division director, John Willmoth, says.
“But when you start getting 70, 80 years down the road, there’s much more uncertainty.”
If you read the article (I know, I know...) it's extremely honest about the accuracy of population modeling as it reaches into the future, and fully admits that projections past 70 years aren't good. It even does so relatively close to the beginning.
“Demographic projections are highly accurate, and it has to do with the fact that most of the people who will be alive in 30 years have already been born,” the UN’s population division director, John Willmoth, says.
“But when you start getting 70, 80 years down the road, there’s much more uncertainty.”