I know that Von Braun expected humans to set foot on Mars by the late 1970s. If Von Braun thought that was possible it certainly was, if not for the pivot in budget that occured under Nixon.
For better or worse we're seeing a resurgence in privately funded space exploration which may be the key to making it happen this time.
How could Space X even afford fund a mission to Mars? There is no way that can be profitable .
What they are doing now is cool but they are still a business which offers a launch services at a competitive price and a satellite internet provider themselves. How does an exceptionally expensive (especially in this financial environment) Mars mission fit into that.
I highly doubt Space X could ever realistically get to Mars before NASA. Artemis seems way more promising than SpaceX as far as manned space flight is concerned.
When banks fail do they broadcast the fact beforehand? It's always a "shock" when a company fails.
Just recently Virgin space (or whatever it was called) closed its doors. There wasn't a public debate beforehand, it was just announced. Sure insiders knew about it but not the broader public.
I'm not implying that spaceX is going shut its doors but it even less incentive to be transparent than a governmental organisation.
It isn't always a shock when a company fails, and Virgin Space is a prime example of that.
They flew something like a handful of missions in 20 years with an unscalable platform and to my knowledge they never once received money to put a payload into orbit.
They are totally incomparable to SpaceX, the company that is putting more tonnage into orbit than any other entity, corporate or governmental.
For better or worse we're seeing a resurgence in privately funded space exploration which may be the key to making it happen this time.