I think it's too soon to reach any conclusions. Yes, Germany is shedding it's base load generation. Yes, so far that hasn't been a problem and Germany still has excess power to sell to France at peak market pricing. Let's at least get through a nasty Summer and a nasty Winter before we declare success.

I really hope Germany is successful and proves to be the model for the rest of the industrialized nations. But we don't have enough evidence yet to call this a success.