This is a very strange take since it was Nate Silver who gave trump an order of magnitude higher chance of winning than everyone else. Around 30% chance, same for a batter getting a hit in baseball, which happens all the time.
I think a lot of people looked at his last prediction that Tuesday morning, observed that 70 > 30, and assumed that meant it was a lock. And then spent the last six years blaming Silver for their own innumeracy.
I find it fascinating that so many people here jump to the assumption that the average person doesn’t get that giving a 28% chance of victory doesn’t mean they can’t win
Clearly. Its not a difficult concept.
But those same people are wholly unable to see that all the other verbiage and propaganda that was behind/infused with Silver was, in no short terms, a demoralization campaign against the trump voters
And since they can’t see that all they can do is project their ego to say they aren’t wrong, its that the people who don’t agree with them don’t comprehend very basic statistics
