So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed. How many players would do well against an elite defense team? Probably not a lot, otherwise they wouldn't be an elite defensive team.
No one is saying that he's going to be another Stockton, Nash, Wade (although Magic Johnson did say that Lin reminded him of Stockton and Nash), and he doesn't need to be in order to succeed. If he can keep the caliber of his game up to NBA standards, he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to play in the NBA, and that's all that matters. His performance over the past 4 games is saying pretty strongly that he can play at this level.
Remember, he just played against over 10% of the league already and has been the best player on the court. If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.
You make some good points. Lin has probably already done enough to have a decent NBA career and retire with millions in the bank. However the hype surrounding Lin is that's he more than that. The main point I wanted to make is that four games is not enough data to make that conclusion.
He's certainly lucky to play for D'Antoni, who is just about the only coach in the NBA who'd let a point guard freelance like Lin has. He's also lucky that the Knicks' star players are out so he doesn't have the pressure to just pass them the rock, which wouldn't showcase his skills. It will be interesting to see how Lin plays with Amare and especially Carmelo. We know from Phoenix that Amare is perfectly happy running the pick-and-roll with a good point guard. 'Melo prefers to handle the ball more, so there could be conflict there.
So what if he hasn't played against an elite defensive team. That is irrelevant to determine whether or not he will succeed.
I think the bigger concern is that our small data sample on Lin's performance is significantly biased in that he has played teams with poor defense at the 1 & 2 (guard positions). Derek Fisher is no defensive All-Star.
I can't verify this, though--haven't done sabremetric research in a while. Doesn't Basketball Prospectus have a section ranking guards on their defensive play?
If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.
This is a non-trivial problem. Conditional on being the offense's #1 option, Lin has played well. How will that change when Melo and Amare return, and he has to set them up? When those guys are healthy, Lin is a #3 option at best (maybe lower, as he has no outside jumper).
No one is saying that he's going to be another Stockton, Nash, Wade (although Magic Johnson did say that Lin reminded him of Stockton and Nash), and he doesn't need to be in order to succeed. If he can keep the caliber of his game up to NBA standards, he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to play in the NBA, and that's all that matters. His performance over the past 4 games is saying pretty strongly that he can play at this level.
Remember, he just played against over 10% of the league already and has been the best player on the court. If the Knicks elite players can get their act together, then Lin only needs to contribute positively in order to maintain a strong career.