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"you know that what these experts say have merit"

No, we don't know that at all.




If experts don't have merit, then what person has merit? Non experts like you and I?


Arguments should be evaluated by their logical soundness, not by who said them.


True, but the volume of information in the world today is too overwhelming for one person to evaluate correctly. We live in the information age after all. Most people don't have the faculties to do a proper evaluation that includes both you and me. Would you trust your self to logically evaluate the capabilities of a nuclear reactor design if you yourself aren't an expert? No. You would hire an expert.

Therefore when it comes to technology that we our selves clearly aren't experts in, then the best method is to utilize the logic of other "experts" as a subroutine given that our own faculties are less efficient and less accurate.

Unless you yourself are an expert who has experience building an LLM on the scale of chatGPT trusting the opinions of experts is your best bet.

Most people have a common bias towards trusting their logic above the logic of others and this is actually ironically irrational. There are people who's entire lives around a certain subject matter and if you aren't that person, then for that subject matter the expert is better. That is the the most rational conclusion and I would venture to say if you aren't arriving at that conclusion yourself then likely you are suffering from the aforementioned bias.


A dangerous myth of modern society is that science is beyond the capacity of ordinary men. I strongly believe it's not.

The practice of science itself may be, as it takes years of research to get to the point where one can produce a new result. However, things that are already known can be taught, and iteratively simplified in a way that abstracts away details while keeping the core argument intact.

Take for example the claim that everything in the universe is made of atoms. It's not a trivial thing to understand, yet everyone accepts it nowdays because we've had so much time and effort put towards simplifying the theory and presenting it to people in a way that is easy to grasp.

If those LLM "experts" were truly experts, they could explain their point clearly without the dark-ages-church "trust the priests, peasant" act.




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