10 years is a long time. This prediction requires two things to happen: interest rates never decline in that period and wages of the owners stay the same. Given the inverse relationship between the two, I don't see that happening. Even modest 3% wage growth over 10 years is an increase of 34%, 4% pushes that to 50%.
Since the mortgage is fixed, these wage gains don't even need to be "real" (positive when inflation adjusted).
> I also wonder if people who are in a position to sell our build houses will try (and maybe even succeed?) to sit this out or whether we will see a downward trend in prices again.
You can't time the market. It's so difficult to predict what is going to happen in the future with any degree of certainty. Also, where are you going to live in the mean time?
Lots of people were burned in 2014-now by assuming the housing market was going to "collapse any minute now" then watching the exact opposite happen. It's as if they thought 2008 was some kind of regular occurrence and not a black swan event.
>Lots of people were burned in 2014-now by assuming the housing market was going to "collapse any minute now" then watching the exact opposite happen. It's as if they thought 2008 was some kind of regular occurrence and not a black swan event.
To be fair to those people, the extra low interest rates of 2014-2022 were the historical black swan event which everyone expected to last a couple of years at most and not a decade, but the banks left the money printer running for too long and now we're facing the inflation fallout.
Rates were never in history so low as post 2008. Why would any sane person expect them to last so long?
Since the mortgage is fixed, these wage gains don't even need to be "real" (positive when inflation adjusted).
> I also wonder if people who are in a position to sell our build houses will try (and maybe even succeed?) to sit this out or whether we will see a downward trend in prices again.
You can't time the market. It's so difficult to predict what is going to happen in the future with any degree of certainty. Also, where are you going to live in the mean time?
Lots of people were burned in 2014-now by assuming the housing market was going to "collapse any minute now" then watching the exact opposite happen. It's as if they thought 2008 was some kind of regular occurrence and not a black swan event.