I don't use Twitter or Facebook or IG so I also won't be using Zuck's new thing. That said, I did a quick straw poll of some non-tech relatives who have not expressed to me any previous opinion either way about Elon Musk and the takeover and got told "Twitter is really weird now and full of ads" and "I can't find anything any more". Anecdotal, but it seems to me twitter would be vulnerable if enough users felt that way. All of the people I spoke with in this very non-scientific and non-representative sample already have instagram accounts so it would be pretty easy for them to move over.
A lot of the prominent accounts seem to be moving. It may be because they want a general public square rather than Elons personal website. It may be because they are worried that the rate limiting etc is going to affect what they do to monitor their reach, understand their audience etc.
Either way I don't think their problems fall into any of the categories you've given exactly, but if the people someone likes to follow on twitter move to threads, the likelihood is that person will move to threads, especially if they are somewhat dissatisfied because the app is becoming weird and stuffed with ads.
I just went unto Threads and I saw quite a bit the sentiment of “I can read stuff again without being limited.” and people asking if so and so had switched.
A lot of the prominent accounts seem to be moving. It may be because they want a general public square rather than Elons personal website. It may be because they are worried that the rate limiting etc is going to affect what they do to monitor their reach, understand their audience etc.
Either way I don't think their problems fall into any of the categories you've given exactly, but if the people someone likes to follow on twitter move to threads, the likelihood is that person will move to threads, especially if they are somewhat dissatisfied because the app is becoming weird and stuffed with ads.