> On the one hand, the distance [...] make this look potentially attractive.
Edit: The Dallas to Houston time is very wrong, against a 3+ hours drive trains have a chance.
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G̶m̶a̶p̶s̶ ̶t̶e̶l̶l̶s̶ ̶m̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶D̶a̶l̶l̶a̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶H̶o̶u̶s̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶h̶o̶u̶r̶ ̶d̶r̶i̶v̶e̶.̶ When you factor in the time spent in the train stations, the possibility of delay, etc, I don't think high speed trains can be fast enough to offer a clear advantage over driving such a short distance. A substantial fraction of that hour will be spent just getting to the train station in the first place, presumably using other intracity mass transit, or else driving your car to the station, possibly through the city, finding a parking spot, etc.
Planes succeed at competing with cars because they can turn a 10 hour drive into 1 or 2 hours, 2 or 3 hours including time to get to the airport and get through TSA. If it can't cut down on travel time by at least 50% then I think it won't succeed, and getting the whole journey under 30 minutes seems implausible. These cities are just too close together to make it work.
High speed rail at that distance is completely viable. Taiwan runs HSR up and down their entire island for a total system length of like 350km (same ballpark at Dallas-Houston), and they do it with like potentially up to 8 stops.
I won't argue about the time to takes to get to and from the station - last mile connectivity will be portion of the viability of this.
It's about 240 miles so not an hour. But I don't disagree with your basic point. A 3-4 hour drive is hard for a train to compete with, especially if you're not convenient to the rail infrastructure on both ends. (The only reason taking the train to Manhattan works for me is that it's a miserable drive; it actually takes longer than driving.)
Edit: The Dallas to Houston time is very wrong, against a 3+ hours drive trains have a chance.
---- G̶m̶a̶p̶s̶ ̶t̶e̶l̶l̶s̶ ̶m̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶D̶a̶l̶l̶a̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶H̶o̶u̶s̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶h̶o̶u̶r̶ ̶d̶r̶i̶v̶e̶.̶ When you factor in the time spent in the train stations, the possibility of delay, etc, I don't think high speed trains can be fast enough to offer a clear advantage over driving such a short distance. A substantial fraction of that hour will be spent just getting to the train station in the first place, presumably using other intracity mass transit, or else driving your car to the station, possibly through the city, finding a parking spot, etc.
Planes succeed at competing with cars because they can turn a 10 hour drive into 1 or 2 hours, 2 or 3 hours including time to get to the airport and get through TSA. If it can't cut down on travel time by at least 50% then I think it won't succeed, and getting the whole journey under 30 minutes seems implausible. These cities are just too close together to make it work.