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The victorious tone comes in my opinion (though I'm projecting a bit) from this graph[0].

There has been very systematic and deliberate effort to better aviation safety DESPITE commercial pressures.

The swiss cheese means that there are many more layers of randomness that have to line up. Many of those layers came from previous accidents. Those layers are not random at all. Also none of those layers are hole free.

If that disk had disintegrated differently a potentially different set of layers would have applied. Would it have meant fatalities? Possibly. Would it have instantly blown up the plane? We don't know.

But it is pretty obvious that had many of those layers not existed then the chances of a much more disastrous outcome would have been much higher.

[0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Fataliti...




And on other aviation systems we do examine multiple failure modes. For example, a round going though the fuselage of an Apache, tumbling and smashing and causing spalling, thousands of simulated trials. Then coupled physics models that look at dozens of unintended interactions, avgas squirting out onto electronics, hot manifolds, etc.

There a whole field of Fault Tree Analysis that looks at how adjacent faults can propagate into unrelated components, then Event Tree Analysis to determine what will happen next. Models that assess robustness against failures even when we have no idea how the failure will occur.

Reliability of cyber physical systems is a constantly evolving field, lots of recent work on concepts like probabilistic model checking, ML for anomaly detection, resistance to cyber attacks, and so on.


There is more that one way to interpret this history of “triumph of technology and human mind”, yada yada.

This flight can be seen as an expensive (thrilling, entertaining, newsworthy, etc.) experiment on live subjects whose outcome was not controlled by existing tools and procedures.

The same for everything before to which it is compared so lightheartedly.

Please don't forget that your image shows a giant graveyard.


Looking at your other comments it seems that you are just arguing out of habit or stubbornness so there is not much point in trying to point out aspects that might bring nuance to it.

Have a mice day.




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