Its quite true that driverless cars per se would have just the effects you mention. But if driverless cars mean that suddenly nobody owns a car and just rents a car from the automated taxi fleet when they need a ride we'd probably see most of them be lightweight single occupancy vehicles, meaning less pollution overall.
Every time I see someone explain why they need a car they always mention big grocery trips and often taking kids somewhere or other. It doesn't seem like driverless cars will do away with those, and if they're really so necessary, most cars available probably won't be lightweight and single occupancy.
I'm sure that there will still be plenty of multi-passenger cars.
But to your point, most people who drive trucks actually use the bed maybe a dozen times a year, and many people who have high occupancy vehicles take far more trips with only themselves or 1 additional passenger than they do fully loaded.
Single occupancy vehicles aren't practical for most people because they need a larger car some of the time, but if you don't own it you're free to request whatever vehicle you need right then.
Going to work by yourself--lightweight single occupancy. Picking up the kids--minivan.
Right, I just realized I forgot another important effect if we go the autonomous taxi route. Currently we have somewhere around 5 parking spaces for every car. I bet we could at least cut that in half with autonomous cars, making it reasonable to develop more densely, meaning shorter driving distances, and making trains a more attractive option for some trips.
> Currently we have somewhere around 5 parking spaces for every car.
Not in the places with lots of population density.
For example, SF may have more cars than parking spaces. It certainly doesn't have 5x as many.
> I bet we could at least cut that in half with autonomous cars, making
almost no difference.
For example, I have two parking spaces. One on the street in front of my house and the other in my backyard. The latter isn't going away and the former won't make any difference.