I agree with the "next door neighbor" allegory. There's only a "bubble" when we can identify a bag holder. That almost inevitably winds up being the plebs, whether it be the general population or via government bailout (still the people). I'm not sure if anyone has yet identified who would be the bagholders in this "bubble", because a bunch of rich guys at Andreesen or Sequoia sure aren't it.
You need a vehicle for the commoner to piss away their money. I don't see that yet. Maybe in a couple years, when your local community KickStarter has you pulling money from your 401K to invest in corporate backed internet startups will they have a way to start to attract Joe the Plumber's wealth.
And with that, a "bubble" comes with it the psychological idea that it's RISK FREE money. That you can borrow money now, sell later and cash out the gains as your investment surely grows. Add to that the real actual feeling that you'd be stupid not to do it (because everywhere you look people are making money off this). That's when we've got a bubble.
When someone can point out a large, wide, gullible, set of people with no access to real fundamental information willing to give up their money through a simple mechanism (stock markets, housing, etc..) then folks, we've got a bubble.
You need a vehicle for the commoner to piss away their money. I don't see that yet. Maybe in a couple years, when your local community KickStarter has you pulling money from your 401K to invest in corporate backed internet startups will they have a way to start to attract Joe the Plumber's wealth.
And with that, a "bubble" comes with it the psychological idea that it's RISK FREE money. That you can borrow money now, sell later and cash out the gains as your investment surely grows. Add to that the real actual feeling that you'd be stupid not to do it (because everywhere you look people are making money off this). That's when we've got a bubble.
When someone can point out a large, wide, gullible, set of people with no access to real fundamental information willing to give up their money through a simple mechanism (stock markets, housing, etc..) then folks, we've got a bubble.