> The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth (Rao, Rondina, upcoming 2024).
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/730695
And for an arvix/working paper link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.07442v2.pdf
> In our main calibration, Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184, with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalytic debris growth parameters.
> The Economics of Orbit Use: Open Access, External Costs, and Runaway Debris Growth (Rao, Rondina, upcoming 2024).
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/730695
And for an arvix/working paper link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.07442v2.pdf
> In our main calibration, Kessler Syndrome can emerge anytime between the year 2040 and the year 2184, with the precise date being very sensitive to the calibration of autocatalytic debris growth parameters.