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Telsa's behind schedule, but the scale of the ambition is frankly wild:

> In October 2022, Musk told investors that his goal was to make 50,000 Semis in 2024.

If they achieve a tenth of it 5 years' late, that's still incredibly good for humanity.




In this case that's not enough. When an incredibly good consumer product arrives 5 years late, consumers can buy something else in the meantime. They have freedom of choice in an open market. When a B2B product shows up 5 years late (and TFA indicates it's over 7 years late), it causes actual damage to the purchaser - and arguably to humanity.

These contracts typically include exclusivity clauses. They lock PepsiCo in, preventing them from purchasing electric semis from other companies that ramp up production sooner. PepsiCo has to lawyer up and nullify the contract with Tesla in order to purchase electric semis from companies other than Tesla. Meanwhile,

So Tesla is locking companies into contracts, failing to deliver, and leaving them in the lurch in the meantime. Cleaner transportation and fewer emissions is good for humanity - so let's celebrate the companies that are actually bringing us electric semis. The Freightliner eCascadia, Volvo VNR, Kenworth EV, and BYD 8TT are all in production. The eCascadia and the VNR are each being produced in higher volumes than the Tesla Semi.


Lawyer up? There is no way anyone at Pepsi would be stupid enough to sign an exclusivity agreement with Elon for a non-existent product. Even if they did sign some kind of contract, there’s nothing for Pepsi to nullify. If one party doesn’t deliver on their end of a contract, it’s broken


These competitors all face the same engineering challenges. Why is telsa struggling? Presuming better engineers and a headstart gives an advantage to tesla, ceteris paribus telsa is either ironing out kinks before rushing ahead or simply aiming for a higher quality product.


> Why is Tesla struggling?

Every other manufacturer already has the customers, the employees, the manufacturing, supply chains, and they know the market better. Tesla is now a decade in to their Gen 1 and haven’t shipped anything because of their distracting engineering goals… they need to focus on the customers.


So, 5,000 electric semi trucks in 2029? I mean, I would think that would be a drop in the bucket. Volvo alone appears to have delivered 2,000 of them last year.


Meanwhile customers take their business to a competitor, as is happening here.

What is ambitiousness worth if the product/delivery is delayed by years and has to be discounted heavily to chase market share?


Or just buy from another company that can deliver EV trucks right now (Volvo, Scania, MAN, Mercedes, etc.).


That's a big if, just like anything else Musk said was production ready years ago.


What makes you think that's even possible?

It's taken them seven years to deliver THIRTY SIX.

And Musk is saying that battery sourcing is still difficult. But somehow you think it's feasible to push out FIVE THOUSAND in the next few years.

"Incredibly good for humanity" remains to be seen - batteries at that scale have their own environmental issues.

> but the scale of the ambition is frankly wild

The scale of his ambition, at this point, is frankly delusional.




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