Fair enough. Though I do think that 10k is less of a sure thing than 8 million customers. The latter proves the model a lot more efficiently, and probably gives enough data for a better overview of the market.
In my example, you're actually asking the VC to speculate on what you say is the size of the market. Sure you can grow from 10k to 30k easily. The question is the size of the market you're trying to get them to invest into.
Whereas, at 8 million, the question is, do you really have a model that you've proven? Or, have you been spending more on getting the customers than you can ever hope to get from them? (wihout mentioning any names!)
If you're doing a good job being competitive and ensuring high customer satisfaction, it's hard to see how you can quickly grow organically from 8m to a size of market of 700m (say), if that is the size of your market, in just a couple of years.
I mean, you have to be providing these customers something, and at a competitive rate. that has to cost you money. no business just explodes without any marketing or other costs to a size of 700m (say). This is where VC money comes in.
in the concrete example of an 8million user organization, it would be impressive of them to get to 9m, 11m, 12.1m, 13.1m year-over-year all organically. It would be impressive of them to, profitably, get to 20m from 8m in 10 years, all organically.
If, however, the size of the market is more like 200m, this is a good place for VC money instead of that 10-year plan!! Especially if competition might end up better-funded.
In my example, you're actually asking the VC to speculate on what you say is the size of the market. Sure you can grow from 10k to 30k easily. The question is the size of the market you're trying to get them to invest into.
Whereas, at 8 million, the question is, do you really have a model that you've proven? Or, have you been spending more on getting the customers than you can ever hope to get from them? (wihout mentioning any names!)
If you're doing a good job being competitive and ensuring high customer satisfaction, it's hard to see how you can quickly grow organically from 8m to a size of market of 700m (say), if that is the size of your market, in just a couple of years.
I mean, you have to be providing these customers something, and at a competitive rate. that has to cost you money. no business just explodes without any marketing or other costs to a size of 700m (say). This is where VC money comes in.
in the concrete example of an 8million user organization, it would be impressive of them to get to 9m, 11m, 12.1m, 13.1m year-over-year all organically. It would be impressive of them to, profitably, get to 20m from 8m in 10 years, all organically.
If, however, the size of the market is more like 200m, this is a good place for VC money instead of that 10-year plan!! Especially if competition might end up better-funded.
(also see my cousin comment here - http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4085660)