The returns are going to chip-makers and employers, including single founder startups, who don't have to hire a lot of people, and additionally get productivity they never thought possible. A surgeon I know uses AI every day - to translate, to explain, to figure out problems, to write. They wouldn't have paid someone to do that, but now they get that output in seconds. This is a time to solve all kinds of problems we didn't think possible - because AI has made the enterprising among us instantly smarter.
All the fodder about AGI being a next step is smoke and mirrors - for everyone using OpenAI knows they don't need any more niche tools as their one $20 subscription is doing more for them every day. AGI is here. Experts can correct AI generated mistakes, but those are getting less and less too. The real benchmark is: Name how many people you know who can out-do ChatGPT on a question. You won't bother to check LinkedIn for that.
The gains are aggregating towards Chips, Clouds and Entrepreneurs. The VCs, since A16Z's original AI blog post (all expense, little return, echoed this Sequoia post but did it but years ago), know they are not needed as much anymore. Fewer VCs will beat the market when founders can grow startups without raising too much money (they don't need to hire as many people). Hiring needs lead to PR waves which require VC funding. Valuation is not a big deal for founders making money either, so they may not even disclose how successful their companies are. Bragging about your gains only invites competition. So other than ponzi-type ventures where you need to attract the dinner to serve dinner, you won't hear much about the good ones.
A different era indeed. The tech giants are in for a lot of change as well. Those who have distribution may try to push their models to the masses to be the point of reference, but that can get expensive, especially for those who don't charge. AI will help improve AI performance as well and that means cheaper better performance with time.
What's most needed in this era are people who know what the world needs that hasn't been invented yet. They need to be inventing and monetizing it. Little stopping you now.
This. Whenever AI come up, people are quick to think of automations completely making every jobs obsolete. But that is probably not going to happen. What is probably going to happen is that we are going to have 1 artist handling 10x more commissions because they can just use AI to do 90% of the work and just cleanup afterwards.
I am also using this to solve problems that are usually delegated to junior developers. I get faster results (that I would have to fix up anyways) for far less effort.
This is the sort of grifter/influencer style comment that we saw in crypto and now pervasive in AI.
Not just that AI is a great tool that will over time have a significant impact on society. It’s the breathless hype e.g. we have AGI today, society will be instantly smarter because of it and every tool and employee will be impacted. The FOMO i.e. you must jump on board now or be left behind. And the complete lack of any data or evidence.
Except I see no grift or FOMO. You don’t need to put your money into it. All you need now is instinct and creativity. The FOMO to raise money or be nobody goes away instead. The FOMO in giants to appear like they are riding the AI horse is real. Evidence is in the productivity of each individual and how many would consult with experts or expert friends vs just using AI.
"The gains are aggregating towards Chips, Clouds and Entrepreneurs. "
Are the gains aggregating to entrepreneurs? It seems like every just a matter of time before the function of the big models overtakes any entrepreneurial idea other than hardware and the models themselves.
AI overtakes software, finance, and distraction industries (content generation of any kind - text, image, video, multi-modal). Distraction industries (social and regular media) are a time waster and brain frier for most humans who often consume to escape their world or decorate /fill their time.
In software the UX is the big burden AI will overcome. Not having to deal with all the typing and clicking frees up more tasks and energy for deciding what needs to be done. Brain energy.
Distraction industries, like sugar, become obviously tart when oversaturated and AI is quickly pushing that boundary. Once people realize they’ve been served a pacifier to the brain in every free minute, they will start thinking more and consuming less.
So now AI frees more human brain energy towards what is actually needed - what problems need solved for humans, not for overloaded interfaces or zombified content consumers.
Examples: Trustworthy, efficient and safe transport for kids to and from enrichment activities. Education of others on tasks that could earn them a living. A better healthcare experience, because 60% of the admin paperwork is AI automated and health workers can talk to patients instead of typing. Organizing people to do more things together to clear the social-media-generated loneliness epidemic. Making new, interactive experiences people would pay to do, especially with friends. People ask for more things to look forward to. Not more things to type. AI is a new hands-free take on UX and UI.
>A machine is required to enter an average American home and figure out how to make coffee: find the coffee machine, find the coffee, add water, find a mug, and brew the coffee by pushing the proper buttons.
Well, that seems like a dumb test for the intelligence part. You need a robot for that. But that means intelligence cannot exist without a physical presence" which I think is at least controversial.
I think the idea is that for many definitions of AGI it should be able to do anything a human does and negotiating the physical world is part of that. It might seem dumb as an intelligence test but would be very economically significant. The difference between a chatbot and being able to tell a bot to build an extension on your house.
Yeah one things that bothered me about artist complaints is the idea that anybody was ever going to pay them.
The people expressing themselves with image AI would never have gone to fiverr or upwork to begin with.
And only some of the existing clientele would change their behaviors too.
Additionally, I know artists that always wanted to express themselves differently than what they became known for, and actually create and sell AI generated work to their clientbase now.
The returns are going to chip-makers and employers, including single founder startups, who don't have to hire a lot of people, and additionally get productivity they never thought possible. A surgeon I know uses AI every day - to translate, to explain, to figure out problems, to write. They wouldn't have paid someone to do that, but now they get that output in seconds. This is a time to solve all kinds of problems we didn't think possible - because AI has made the enterprising among us instantly smarter.
All the fodder about AGI being a next step is smoke and mirrors - for everyone using OpenAI knows they don't need any more niche tools as their one $20 subscription is doing more for them every day. AGI is here. Experts can correct AI generated mistakes, but those are getting less and less too. The real benchmark is: Name how many people you know who can out-do ChatGPT on a question. You won't bother to check LinkedIn for that.
The gains are aggregating towards Chips, Clouds and Entrepreneurs. The VCs, since A16Z's original AI blog post (all expense, little return, echoed this Sequoia post but did it but years ago), know they are not needed as much anymore. Fewer VCs will beat the market when founders can grow startups without raising too much money (they don't need to hire as many people). Hiring needs lead to PR waves which require VC funding. Valuation is not a big deal for founders making money either, so they may not even disclose how successful their companies are. Bragging about your gains only invites competition. So other than ponzi-type ventures where you need to attract the dinner to serve dinner, you won't hear much about the good ones.
A different era indeed. The tech giants are in for a lot of change as well. Those who have distribution may try to push their models to the masses to be the point of reference, but that can get expensive, especially for those who don't charge. AI will help improve AI performance as well and that means cheaper better performance with time.
What's most needed in this era are people who know what the world needs that hasn't been invented yet. They need to be inventing and monetizing it. Little stopping you now.