Don’t assume “widespread deployment of the same”. Think about next-gen models running faster and at a low cost.
They already understand spoken English and can respond in kind.
This is Siri or Alexa on steroids. Just that alone is a “killer app” for everyone with a mobile phone or a home assistant device!
What’s the addressable market for that right now? Five billion customers? Six or seven maybe?
Computer RPG games are about to become completely different. You’ll be able to actually converse with characters.
Etc…
I’m a short-term pessimist but a long-term optimist.
This all reminds me of 3D graphics a in the early 1990s. The nerds were impressed but nobody else thought it was interesting. Now we have Pixar and a computer games industry bigger than Hollywood.
Siri and Alexa are good examples - they turned out to be incredibly expensive to develop and had extremely limited productivity benefits for users, while being almost impossible to monetize.
They pretend to understand spoken English, but they don't, because they're just a huge set of hard-coded rules written out one-at-a-time by enormous numbers of very expensive developers.
This is the 1990s approach to AI: Fuzzy logic, heuristics, solvers, dynamic programming, etc...
That approach has been thoroughly blown out of the water by Transformers, which does all of that and much more with a thousand lines of code that can be banged out in a couple of hours by one guy while talking in a YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCc8FmEb1nY
Transformers will revolutionise this entire space, and more that don't even exist yet as a market.
Take for example humanoid robots: Boston Dynamics has had the hardware working well enough for a decade, but not the software. You can't walk up to one of their robots, point at something, and tell the robot to complete a task. It can't understand what it is seeing, and can't understand English instructions. Programming that in with traditional AI methods would take man-millenia of effort, and might never work well enough.
If we could speed up GPT-4o (the one with vision) to just 10x or 50x its current speed, with some light fine-tuning it could control a humanoid robot right now with a level of understanding comparable to C3P0 from Star Wars!
They already understand spoken English and can respond in kind.
This is Siri or Alexa on steroids. Just that alone is a “killer app” for everyone with a mobile phone or a home assistant device!
What’s the addressable market for that right now? Five billion customers? Six or seven maybe?
Computer RPG games are about to become completely different. You’ll be able to actually converse with characters.
Etc…
I’m a short-term pessimist but a long-term optimist.
This all reminds me of 3D graphics a in the early 1990s. The nerds were impressed but nobody else thought it was interesting. Now we have Pixar and a computer games industry bigger than Hollywood.