> I don't think we know the growth curve until we see gpt5.
I'm prepared to be wrong, but I think that the fact that we still haven't seen GPT-5 or even had a proper teaser for it 16 months after GPT-4 is evidence that the growth curve is slowing. The teasers that the media assumed were for GPT-5 seem to have actually been for GPT-4o [0]:
> Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again?
> Sam Altman(01:06:15) I don’t know. That’s the honest answer.
> Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, that’s the honest answer. Blink twice if it’s this year.
> Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I don’t know what we’ll call it.
> Lex Fridman(01:06:36) So that goes to the question of, what’s the way we release this thing?
> Sam Altman(01:06:41) We’ll release in the coming months many different things. I think that’d be very cool. I think before we talk about a GPT-5-like model called that, or not called that, or a little bit worse or a little bit better than what you’d expect from a GPT-5, I think we have a lot of other important things to release first.
Note that last response. That's not the sound of a CEO who has an amazing v5 of their product lined up, that's the sound of a CEO who's trying to figure out how to brand the model that they're working on that will be cheaper but not substantially better.
I'm prepared to be wrong, but I think that the fact that we still haven't seen GPT-5 or even had a proper teaser for it 16 months after GPT-4 is evidence that the growth curve is slowing. The teasers that the media assumed were for GPT-5 seem to have actually been for GPT-4o [0]:
> Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again?
> Sam Altman(01:06:15) I don’t know. That’s the honest answer.
> Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, that’s the honest answer. Blink twice if it’s this year.
> Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I don’t know what we’ll call it.
> Lex Fridman(01:06:36) So that goes to the question of, what’s the way we release this thing?
> Sam Altman(01:06:41) We’ll release in the coming months many different things. I think that’d be very cool. I think before we talk about a GPT-5-like model called that, or not called that, or a little bit worse or a little bit better than what you’d expect from a GPT-5, I think we have a lot of other important things to release first.
Note that last response. That's not the sound of a CEO who has an amazing v5 of their product lined up, that's the sound of a CEO who's trying to figure out how to brand the model that they're working on that will be cheaper but not substantially better.
[0] https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2024/03/opena...