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I think the extent to which one could say open source software is in decline is driven by the fact that FOSS was recently considered by many big VC firms to be an “investable category” and now that view is less popular.

True FOSS has always been uninvestable, healthy, and small. But we’ve had a lot of “eventually fake” (non-MIT/GPL) FOSS in the last decade. Elasticsearch, mongodb, cockroach, and so on.

True FOSS (maintainers not beholden to rent-seeking investors), as always, trudges along. Because it’s growth is not correlated to market returns.




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