This is definitely the post to read if you want a good perspective of what's really going on. I don't have any firsthand knowledge, but around this time every year MSFT seems to do a reorg, which can cause a lot of people to have to find new roles internally (which most people do every 3-4 years anyway). I suspect that internal roles will be more difficult to find, and a percentage of the internal job seekers will eventually run out of time and will quietly leave the company. But I highly doubt they will come out and announce a blanket 17% cut on 1/15 - just doesn't make any sense.
Why doesn't it make any sense? That post mentions that a large number of HUGE business customers are going away (bankrupt financial firms, mergers, etc). Revenue is going down. Does MSFT need 90,000 to do what they need to do to grow/succeed?
That post is interesting, but internal memos of managers saying, "No layoffs!" isn't very reliable. That's EXACTLY what they would be saying if there WERE going to be layoffs to keep people engaged, working hard, and NOT stealing IP.
I'm not saying there are going to be layoffs, but off the cuff I imagine it'd be a pretty good idea. Trim the fat.
