I guess it's an economic calculation. Moreover, it would be foolish to assume that consumers are rational agents: I expect that the perceived value and user's attachment to a free tablet would be much lower (again, another study would find the "sweet price". Maybe they found it?).
This is the single biggest difference between Google and Apple. Apple designs very elegant software (and hardware) so that they can sell hardware at a high premium. Google views all monetization through search optimization. Search, Maps etc. Now maybe there will be commerce streams (Play, Wallet?) too soon which makes having a direct relationship very key.
So somewhere Google has a stat that says "A regular user is worth $22 a year to us" or something (more sophisticated) but like that. If those users buy an Apple device it's less and less clear they'll have a path to Google services now.
If they can acquire that consumer "for free" (sell them a device that hooks them into the platform at a wash) then it's a good deal. If they gave it away for free then it would take x number of years to break even on that person. So that $200 or whatever does matter. And Google has a very good idea about what an Android/Google services tablet user is worth to them.