I would politely argue against the word “collapse”. It’s overly dramatic. It makes no sense when talking about societies. Peter Zeihan uses the word a lot but that doesn’t mean it’s correct. Peter just knows that fear sells. But what does it mean for a society to collapse? One day all is fine and the next day it is not? “Downward spiral” seems more appropriate.
When a bridge collapses it doesn’t happen in one go - first a couple of bits are rusty, some foundations are crumbling and not tended to. Then a couple of supports fall off but it’s fine because it’s summer. Then winter comes with the extra load than entails, snow, rain.
It’s fine, the bridge remains up but now one of the remaining supports is working back and forth every time a car goes over it. One day a heavy truck goes over it.
One day the collapse is apparent to us all, and complete. But it began long ago when maintenance was neglected.
> One day the collapse is apparent to us all, and complete.
This only happens in historical retrospect. The sacking of Rome in 476 theoretically marked the collapse of The Roman Empire in Western Europe but nonetheless people all over Europe continued to live in a Roman style and think of themselves as citizens of the Roman Empire for a very long time.
We won't know when our society has collapsed. Our grand children may.
I generally agree, however a counterpoint is that modern technology has made the world smaller and consequences arrive faster. No longer does news travel at the speed of a mule drawn cart, now it happens at a significant fraction of the speed of light.
We're highly dependent on external capital, technologies, materials, and resources -- not to mention goodwill enabling trade and avoiding social chaos. All of these can and do change in a matter of months, and the speed of the collapse can be amplified by smart individuals making self-interested decisions, and even more by bad actors working in concert for strategic reasons.
This. Dependence on technology and outsourcing of basic survival needs (like food, medicine etc), has fragilized our civilization to the point that collapse would have an exponential rate.
Could you give a clear example from history? Usually it isn’t clear. For example, historians are still not in agreement about when the Roman empire ended [1].
